AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK

The Australian Weather Forum three month rainfall and temperture outlook for Australia. The information provided in this outlook is deduced by a combination of factors, inlcuding current conditions of the Pacific region (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) around Australia, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The Climate Outlook is produced by John.

Issued: 2:48pm Tuesday 18th December 2012.

JANUARY through to MARCH

Current Conditions:

The Australian Weather Forum continues to forecast accurate three-month outlooks. All identities are currently indicating close to neutral conditions. The sea surface temperatures of the tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean are currently average, as to are the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness regions. The Indian Ocean Dipole has previously been positive, however has now moved to a neutral level.

Seen below is the latest weekly analysis of sea surface temperatures for the globe. Image thanks to the Bureau of Meteorology.

The latest round of model outputs is also indicating neutral conditions to persist until at least mid 2013, as seen by the image below.

Seasonal Forecast for January, February and March:

Queensland:Rainfall should be close to average in most districts. Drier than normal from Townsville to Rockhampton areas, and above average around northwest Queenland and around the Gulf region. The Monsoon season should start by late December or early January. Most of Queensland will experience above average maximum temperatures throughout this outlook however the North Tropical Coast will see closer to normal maximum temperatures. Minimum temperatures will be average to above average in most areas as well especially through northwestern areas of Queensland. Closer to average around the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

New South Wales/ACT:Rainfall should be close to average in most districts. Generally average to above average temperatures right across the state during this period in both maximums and minimums.

Victoria:Close to average rainfall to slightly below average in most areas for this outlook with nothing pointing to extreme wet or extreme dry. Should see maximum temperatures be mostly above average during this period especially inland. Minimum temperatures will be closer to average to above average throughout.

Tasmania:Generally close to average rainfall with a trend of being slightly wetter than normal in the west and southwest. Generally average temperatures should be seen throughout this forecast period.

South Australia:Close to average rainfall throughout but with a bias of being wetter than normal in some western parts. Maximum above average temperatures throughout, especially northern, central and eastern areas. Minimum temperatures will be average to above average throughout.

Western Australia:Above average rainfall is forecast in tropical areas of this state during this period and parts of southwest Western Australia (but remembering southwest Western Australia has very low rainfall this time of Year). Generally close to average rainfall elsewhere is expected. Maximum temperatures will continue to be average to above average across most of the state. Minimum temperatures will also be above average in most areas.

Northern Territory:Above average rainfall is expected through northern parts of the Northern Territory through this period. Close to average elsewhere. Maximum and minimum temperatures will also be average to above average through most of the Territory.

Notes:

Notes from John: My forecast is based on a warmer than normal Indian Ocean temperatures to the northwest of Australia, cooler to average SST'S in the Coral Sea, a negative to neutral SAM and neutral ENSO, but showing a trend of going briefly cooler than normal in eastern parts over the coming few months.

Next Update is due by late JANUARY.