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- by Gordon
- Sat May 11, 2024 11:11 am
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: Slow moving easterly trough: May 9-12
- Replies: 25
- Views: 624
Unlucky by a few kms for both parts of this event, finishing on 4.5mm. Great to see all those big falls though; something from nothing, so in many ways 'bonus' rain. Btw Nino 3.4 just tipped into negative. That’s really early and you need to take bout 0.5 off it because of global warming to make it ...
- by Gordon
- Fri May 10, 2024 9:52 am
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: Slow moving easterly trough: May 9-12
- Replies: 25
- Views: 624
Blackee wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2024 8:16 am
Finally some weather to post about. Constant Tain on the old tin roof started about midnight and continues in heavy to moderate spurts. 22mm here so far and very welcome.
Is that at Mansfield Blackee?
- by Gordon
- Tue May 07, 2024 11:59 am
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: Another big slow moving high: April 27-
- Replies: 18
- Views: 981
Not sure about others but i am struggling to remember such persistent highs for weeks on end. Feels like the start to an El Niño drought but we are meant to be seeing a La Niña :? I get it, and agree re persistent highs. After decades of thinking I understood climate drivers and climate forecasts t...
- by Gordon
- Tue Apr 30, 2024 9:23 pm
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: Another big slow moving high: April 27-
- Replies: 18
- Views: 981
Cold and quite damp April here, maximums 1.5C below average, but lack of sun probably made it feel colder. 82.5mm of rain versus 57mm average. YTD of 174.5mm is however below our 28 year average of 222mm.
- by Gordon
- Wed Apr 24, 2024 7:43 am
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: April 23-25: stronger front and possible low
- Replies: 9
- Views: 744
After a mild Tuesday, a much stronger front than I expected. Punched through last night with a big temperature drop and powerful winds. A few branches down, 12mm of rain and now 5C.
81.5mm mtd is way above our 60mm average for April.
- by Gordon
- Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:52 am
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April
- Replies: 23
- Views: 1482
We largely missed out on the ECL part of this system, with only 2mm. But a better result with the cold front, bringing 10mm - quite a bit more than the 1-5mm forecast. I do like it when forecast rain totals are underestimated :). Hope it's a sign of a shift back to wetter conditions. (Nice to see a ...
- by Gordon
- Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:10 pm
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April
- Replies: 23
- Views: 1482
Looks like at least a week of cool and damp weather for most of Vic, starting tomorrow with rain barely creeping over the border, but becoming more widespread and significant over the weekend as the low centre nears far East Gippsland. Then a cold front on Monday sets up the remainder of the week fo...
- by Gordon
- Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:06 am
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5
- Replies: 60
- Views: 2387
hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:27 am
Not so great for southern Tasmania. Progs basically picked this. Had just 6mm here so far. Freshens things up, but not enough so far.
Radar looking a bit better for you now I hope hillybilly? Although I always find it bloody hard to tell in Tassie with the topographical detail
- by Gordon
- Mon Apr 01, 2024 12:05 pm
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5
- Replies: 60
- Views: 2387
6mm already in the first 12hours of April! Double my March total! Nice Macedonian - hopefully the first mms of many for you! Only a few spots here so far, but radar and progs are promising. The sky is looking very volatile. Just had a quick check of our 28 years of records. We recorded just 1.5mm f...
- by Gordon
- Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:26 pm
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5
- Replies: 60
- Views: 2387
From my post on Good Friday: 'Still a bit 'forecast shy' after the disappointments of the last two months, but if we don't get the autumn break Easter Monday/ Tuesday, it will be the biggest bust I can recall.' Liking the latest SWW (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml). Text includes: &qu...
- by Gordon
- Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:45 am
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1141
8 of the 10 models I can see give us at least 20mm plus Monday/ Tuesday, and that includes EC, GFS and ACCESS. Some are triple that. Still a bit 'forecast shy' after the disappointments of the last two months, but if we don't get the autumn break Easter Monday/ Tuesday, it will be the biggest bust I...
- by Gordon
- Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:20 am
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1141
At least GFS and EC are finally agreeing on decent rain for us (25mm plus) and a fair bit of Vic early next week, instead of one on/ one off.
Other models are mixed, reflected in a more modest WATL chart this morning. Keen to see if ACCESS gets on board, which it hasn't really at this stage.
- by Gordon
- Tue Mar 26, 2024 8:01 am
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1141
This morning's WATL has something for Vic (at last!), although you know it's dry when the possibility of 5-10mm several days out catches your attention!
Edit: individual models certainly are a mess though - latest EC has us down for 170mm in the next 8 days, GFS almost zero!