The Australian Weather Forum

The EC model isn't the only model going for the Fri and Saturday event.. UK is too as is CMC. Here is the rain CMC is predicting between now and early Sunday morning http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=nz&MENU=0000000000&CONT=aupa&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=...

I'm guessing people have lost faith in models? Even the BOM are still saying just the "chance of showers" Fri and Saturday even though EC persists with rain and a good drop for central Victoria and Melbourne this morning and has been this way for several days now. If this had of been few m...

Models have bit of rain 2-5mm for central areas Wednesday though long range ACCESS seems to think there is more, EC has little still and GFS backs off but its after this that gets interesting.. EC continues to push an upper trough in from the west later in the week meaning a cloud band and rain deve...

Hmmm, 18Z GFS says we'll only get 10mm now.... 12z for the next 108 hrs which takes us to Sunday http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2014032512:0:108:aus:nul" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; 18z for the next 108 hrs which takes us to Sunday http://forecasts.bs...

EC still looks good around 20mm it has for Melbourne tonight, GFS 10-25mm UK 10-25mm for our area. EC has around 40mm areas to the north east of Melbourne around Marysville and that so looking good. I wouldn't worry about the cloudmass over eastern coast being to far east at the moment it's the show...

No chance.. The surface trough on most models has been expected to go back over the border into SA and the upper low west of Adelaide so can't see how we will miss out on upsliding north easterlies rain

40mm+ for you this week Rhino.. I would just about back it in for your area

Looking reasonably good at this stage for some good rainfall in parts of Vic this coming week as a surface trough interacts with an upper trough/low. Moisture will be pumped into the system from Qld/Coral sea. Storms are also a chance if cloud cover does not become to heavier during the week. Models...

Most of Melbourne and Central areas will be lucky to see enough rain to settle the dust today. Good day for the east and north east for storms and the south west will get half a decent drop from the rainband but another non event for central Vic.

Friday looks Ok for another 2-5mm maybe more in eastern suburbs, looks to clear up Saturday then it gets complex Sunday onwards Access, Gfs and ec have 3 different scenarios which usually means fine weather for us

5mm here which was pretty much what I was expecting 5mm or less. Eastern and south eastern suburbs was always going to do better. For those that haven't liked our page yet come and check out John's Weather Channel on facebook getting close to 2000 people on board now following our page :) pretty muc...

EC has downscaled again only few mm's now.. Looks about right to me.

BOM'S "shower or two" would be reflecting from the downgrade(s) of the last 3 days of modelling Geoff especially yesterday, BOM don't upgrade weather forecasts based on 1 run (especially when the last 6 to 8 runs they have been downgrading) they need more consistency. I'm still thinking ve...

Models upgrading now lol at least EC, UK and long term ACCESS are. Not sure where this "rain" will come from I am thinking models have not picked up we are back in "dry times" and are over reading/overestimating systems. 5mm at best case scenario for Melbourne IMO.

Not sure about that parallels I'm pretty sure Feb was wet and stormy last year I know Melbourne had close to 70mm

Yep and it gets better.. Models have downgraded the coming weekend system by quite a big margin since last Sunday if I had to guess by at least 60% in a space of 72 hrs, I don't think I have ever seen that before... All agree so strongly with good rains a week out only to be chipped away the totals ...

Another massive over prediction by the models, UK had 10-20mm for us this afternoon, EC had that this morning and GFS also had decent totals. Been the story so far for 2014.. Starting to remind me of the pre 2010 days when models use to do this all the time way overestimate

And good news is no stinking hot weather to come for the foreseeable future as the upper ridge knicks off and we are actually replaced with slow moving upper troughs over SE OZ over the coming week meaning cooler uppers which will translate to average to slightly below average temps for this time of...

EC and GFS had 2-5mm Saturday mornings 12z runs for sat night and sun morning north of the city and CBD end result was around 10mm in some of the northern suburbs and 13mm in the CBD so you can sort of see how the bay plays a big part this time of year. So anything EC has north east and east of the...

Radar exploding.. Upper trough right over us so rain keeps developing over central Melbourne out of the north west from thin air! As well as the showers from the wsw/sw.. it's going to be really wet over se and eastern suburbs tonight