Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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Gordon
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Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:10 am

That would be good (within reason :)).
StratoBendigo
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Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:21 pm

Well that looks promising. Hopefully a good old fashioned mid-summer deluge to dampen fires. I'm almost having visions of 2011...
Sean
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Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:52 pm

The waters are so warm off the NW and there's prospect of a cyclone, so it's starting to get a little interesting. If the monsoon trough does develop like they're thinking it will, a lot of moisture may start pooling and very quickly.

Adding to the the mix is the slight break down in the high pressure ridge, which seemed to cut Victoria off from much of the moisture last summer.

No point getting too excited. There's a very good chance the dry will go on and on, as it's done so for 8 years, but all the ingredients are there for it to end with a bang. Just have to wait and see
Sean
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Tue Dec 31, 2019 5:25 pm

+IOD officially in neutral territory: https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/ind ... own/530807

Good riddance.

Next phase: monsoon trough.

If we have another failed monsoon season, this country is even more f*cked than it is already. Hundreds of millions of animals dead, millions of hectares of forest burnt, failed crops all over the place. This is one of the most devastating summers on record, and this is on the back of a devastating summer last year! Give us a break.

Interestingly, the rate of the +IOD's break down makes me wonder if a strong reversal is possible. Who knows these days :roll:
StratoBendigo
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Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:32 am

Most MJO forecasts look really good for mid-late January. ECMF even indicating a monsoon trough persisting off NW Australia:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ecmf.shtml

Some early indications of some rain in Vic after January 10 too. Here's hoping.
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Didjman
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Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:41 am

With SAM and IOD neutral, things are looking promising! Fingers crossed. We need cyclonic rain (spread out though and without the wind) to put out the fires.
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windyrob
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Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:19 am

Finally the oceans have cooled around Tahiti and the some big positive SOI numbers can be put on the board. Almost a hint of -neg pdo like ssts in northern hemisphere. I still dont like our chances of a La nina till 2021 when solar cycle gets going. But with heat up north theres a chance. https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 2.2020.gif
StratoBendigo
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Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:02 am

The next week or so is likely to see exceptionally heavy rain over more-or-less all of Western Australia, particularly inland areas. This is good news in terms of putting a lid on the extreme temps that have afflicted the continent in the past couple of months. That said, the Simpson Desert will remain stinking hot for a while.

I'm seeing some parallels between this summer and 1994/5. i.e. A hot and dry December due to a strong Spring +ve IOD, but some big incursions of tropical moisture into January. Anyone else remember the flooded Rod Laver Arena at the Aust Open in January 1995?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ucZUG-vALc
Sean
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Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:40 pm

The thick plumes of vapour seem to be edging further and further inland each day: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Question is, will something wring it out over places that need it? I was a bit young to remember that event at Rod Laver, but that cyclone has brought with it a massive incursion of tropical moisture over northern regions...

If it were a regular year/summer I would think, ok, the monsoon is arriving, but the extremity of anomalies and drivers lately makes me wonder if extreme rainfall in southern regions is a chance. Having said that though, while we have some of the warmest waters in the world sitting to the NW of us at the moment, the anomaly is only moderate: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDYOC062 ... maly.shtml - which hints more at average type weather than extrememe type weather, where rain is concerned anyway.

My biggest concern is that a belt of high pressure will form as the monsoon trough descends. Victoria has been subject to this over and over again. The only regularity we seem to have these days is a snap drought once a year! :x
JasmineStorm
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Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:02 am

JasmineStorm wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:05 pm
The floods are coming.
Like clock work. MJO influenced monsoon pulse weakens the ridge, upper lows start ruling the troposphere over SE OZ.
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StratoBendigo
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Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:48 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:02 am
JasmineStorm wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:05 pm
The floods are coming.
Like clock work. MJO influenced monsoon pulse weakens the ridge, upper lows start ruling the troposphere over SE OZ.
EC pulls trigger with 100mm+ system for us on Sunday-Tuesday.... MJO in sweet spot.
Gordon
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Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:36 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:02 am
JasmineStorm wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:05 pm
The floods are coming.
Nice call JS - as usual :).
StratoBendigo
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Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:49 am

Round two of MJO in Zone 5-6 is firming up for Early-Mid February. Something to watch.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:17 pm

Latest BOM climate forecast for Autumn. Hopefully a decent drink for Southern Australia:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-27/ ... h/12005560

Again, this doesn't surprise me given that this year feels so much like 1995 all over again so far.
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Didjman
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Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:58 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:49 am
Round two of MJO in Zone 5-6 is firming up for Early-Mid February. Something to watch.
MJO is looking promising for mid March too!
StratoBendigo
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Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:15 am

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