2018 Possible upcoming weather events

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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flyfisher
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by flyfisher » Thu May 31, 2018 3:23 pm

I hope it does go wet in June. Currently BOM are saying that lower pressures over the Tasman sea are disrupting the westerly cold fronts. That's pretty much what we have seen to date. The high gets held back over SE Australia because every front cuts off in the Tasman. It needs to change for us to get more weather, particularly north of the ranges.

Gordon
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Gordon » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:15 pm

Some firming of the models towards the unusual weather event off the north-central coast of WA http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/, drifting down to Vic (particularly northern Vic) by Friday:

Image


Too early for a new thread in Vic weather?

JasmineStorm
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:54 am

Stratospheric warming occurring in the lower levels near the tropopause over Antarctica in a weeks time on the GEFS ensemble. EC ensemble going for a big cold shot towards Vic after it mixes down sending the tropospheric polar vortex equatorward. Possibly Rossby wave thrust into SE OZ around July 10 to 18th. Signs of a powerful polar surge near 2nd week to mid July if it verifies :)
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EC and GEFS ensemble 2606.jpg
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JasmineStorm
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:09 am

Large mid level stratospheric anomaly, 2m temps have risen 4 degrees in Antarctica and SAM is going negative big time. The gates of the south pole are about to open up :)
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GEFS strat SAM Aug 1 globasl temps.jpg
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JasmineStorm
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:36 pm

EC now starting to model sea level snow in Victoria within 10 days. Still a long way out but the tropospheric polar vortex is weakening and surface temps in Antarctica have now moved upward of 5c within 3 weeks. This looks like a significant cold snap on the cards within 2 weeks IMO.
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EC and Global temps 2807.jpg
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StratoBendigo
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:00 pm

Forecast models still a bit messy for next week. Everything from stock-standard cold outbreak to a Pineapple express.

JasmineStorm
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:48 am

EC has produced this a couple of times now..... a significant cold core extratropical cyclone near the S.A border. Haven't seen anything like this since the end of September 2016, which spawned tornadoes and knocked out S.A's power. It has a sting jet set up!! Still early days....plenty of downgrades to come I would assume but pure model entertainment :)
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EC 2108 12z.jpg
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JasmineStorm
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:08 am

Stratospheric warming over one half of Antarctica and an incredible cooling on the other half that is coupling with the troposphere below. Almost all global models are picking it up at the moment with GFS and EC producing an epic upper low to impact SE Australia. If the upper low encountered moisture, it would be a historic weather event around mid to late next week. If it doesn't, it could be a significant cold snap. Too early to call it but it looks extreme at the moment :)
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Nov 20 to 23 EC GFS.jpg
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