nafets wrote:Anyone here think that the cell near Hay will hit Melbourne later?
It'd take a lot to cover the distance and a lot will have to happen for it to hit Melbourne so probably not, but it may hit somewhere down here, just depends on the intensity and the clear air/instability it has to work with on the way down.
Some serious lightning from that line of storms though.
Edit: And although the particular big cell may not hit, I think that line has a good chance.
Last edited by I_Love_Storms on Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Rainfall is thick and steady, coming in with a slight easterly tilt and no wind whatsoever, just heard 2 rumbles out to our E, one of them went seemingly for 40 secs!
Cant see a thing, Ns is basically sitting on the tree tops here. Just perfect pastrorial rain, the cow cockies will love it, maybe we will catch up with Sale (who beat us out of the box yesterday)!!!
Baro seems to have topped-out at 1015 and has eased back to 1014 today.
Hi Lennie great to have you onboard be good to see your comments in here from time to time.
Jake you should get some decent rain but just depends how far East the Upper low and surface low develops whether you get storms.
Nafets - Great to have a local from here from my area! Was amazing here in Ascot vale very rarely have I ever seen a storm hit with such force through this area. I actually rate it no 1 through this area of the storm of my life
Can start to see the anvil cirrus from those NSW beasts coming down, may limit heating for later. Will be interesting to see if anything goes up ahead of that band.
It's interesting how many people are saying it was the biggest storm they had ever seen on various outlets. It was big but I don't feel it was the biggest. Rainfall totals didn't suggest that either. Some of the hail events in the 1990s seemed more extreme.
100+mm in 24 hours is what I'd class as "1 in 100 year" event and yesterday's only brought about 15-40mm across the city in a 24 hour period. All these storms are more like a "1 in 5 year event" these days. The media is right onto it as well with warnings of a "second wave". I'd rate yesterday's storm as the 3rd or 4th biggest that we've seen in Melbourne in the last decade. No swimming on the Eastern Freeway yesterday, like what happened in 2003
johnno wrote:Hi Lennie great to have you onboard be good to see your comments in here from time to time.
Jake you should get some decent rain but just depends how far East the Upper low and surface low develops whether you get storms.
Nafets - Great to have a local from here from my area! Was amazing here in Ascot vale very rarely have I ever seen a storm hit with such force through this area. I actually rate it no 1 through this area of the storm of my life
Clear slot established here. Sunny conditions, up to 22C and rising all the time and of course tropical humidity. Looking dark to the NW where that big rain area is, clearer to the E. No surface convection visible yet but it was the same yesterday, didn't really see any structure to the Cb until after the main band came through and we got the smaller cells.
From this mornings progs it should be on the verge of going off now with 22C and high teens DP.
Bobman wrote:It's interesting how many people are saying it was the biggest storm they had ever seen on various outlets. It was big but I don't feel it was the biggest. Rainfall totals didn't suggest that either. Some of the hail events in the 1990s seemed more extreme.
100+mm in 24 hours is what I'd class as "1 in 100 year" event and yesterday's only brought about 15-40mm across the city in a 24 hour period. All these storms are more like a "1 in 5 year event" these days. The media is right onto it as well with warnings of a "second wave". I'd rate yesterday's storm as the 3rd or 4th biggest that we've seen in Melbourne in the last decade. No swimming on the Eastern Freeway yesterday, like what happened in 2003
Bring on more rain!
Lived in melb for 32 years, seen it all. Lived eastern suburbs, western. Was at flemington races yesterday and it was easily the biggest, most intense storm i'd ever seen. Was unbelievable. Expected it to hail for about 1 minute, but it kept coming, with freaky consistency as well, pushing straight through the wind. Just calling it a storm probably doesnt do it justice.
Chasers need to stay east of the line, the hp supercell west of Hay is taking a 150degree track, bowing a little as well now. Ben tracking back to Deniliquin, took wrong road and will take road that goes wnw 10km N of Deniliquin. Be beasts further up line as well out of radar range, but best storm atm is that Hay cell, I wouldn't go too far south yet given anvil and mess is limiting any heating.
johnno wrote:Hi Lennie great to have you onboard be good to see your comments in here from time to time.
Jake you should get some decent rain but just depends how far East the Upper low and surface low develops whether you get storms.
Nafets - Great to have a local from here from my area! Was amazing here in Ascot vale very rarely have I ever seen a storm hit with such force through this area. I actually rate it no 1 through this area of the storm of my life
BTW, Thank You for the welcome Johnoo and others!!
That line of storms towards Hay will move over the Melbourne metropolitan area followed by areas of rain and thunder embedded with the rain. Could see a repeat performance of hail but I tending more towards torrential rains and damaging winds. The odd tornado is also a possibility too.
Suspect a further 30-50mm through Melbourne this evening.
Finished with 40mm in Monbulk and 56mm at home in Knoxfield.
Tree damage and house damage in the area is widespread. Tarps affecting almost every house here!!
Welcome to all our new guest and members, join join join ahead of the next storm and lets cover this event together!!
Karl what do you suspect the instability is like around here atm Scoresby 27/15, Coldstream 25/19, pretty significant I would think...the heating is definitely here now, it won't cool until a storm comes. Lapse rates are going to be massive.
Edit: Very warm outside now, would have to be 27-28 here in Lilydale I would guess. Today is more ominous than yesterday, that wind shear is going to cause cells to throw out locally destructive winds.
Last edited by I_Love_Storms on Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:53 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Hi all, Found this forum last night and have been following your posts fervently! Exciting stuff and the anticipation is getting to me so I had to join! I know NOTHING about storms other than they intrigue me. So sorry to all those that copped damage. I came home to a flooded kitchen when the hail smashed through the clear perspex on the roof and the laundry. More upset about my very fertile chilli bush which now looks like its been through the shredder! Anyway...good to be on board and I look forward to learning about these beasts from you all! P.S I live in Kensington. Parts were flooded still this morning. My next door neighbour and land lord both had damage to thier roofs but all in all...we have got through it safely. Sal
