VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

[Wilko]

Very off topic but for those dreaming of winter, Chicago is going for a maximum of -25 today with a wind chill of -50.

We're separated from Antarctica by a big ocean and a lot closer to the equator, so cold air is always going to be moderated to some extent, but if cold air begins spilling like it has been in the northern hemisphere, Melbourne could be hit with record cold temps and snow in the future.

Anyway, thick cloud is building, but we're right on the edge. Anything that does develop will probably dump out east around Healesville and beyond. Hope we sneak in something more tho

You can guarantee there will be a Polar Vortex spike over the next few years as the Jet decouples and Mother Earth adjusts
I Don’t mind the cold but I certainly can’t stand really freezing winters so I recently decided to book an air B and B for a few weeks next winter in Northern New South Wales
It’s all about adjusting and adapting
Helps if u are semi retired

Ps that last cell just missed me
Bloody frustrating the monsoon over FNQ will not behave and drift south
What is Preventing this ?
It can’t just be high pressure ridge over southern Aus.Must be more to it like the huge warm ocean anomaly
Anyway it’s Been a good season for storms so keep smiling gang and bring on more storms

[QldTwister]

Amazing light show

Great day

Its the mid and upper level ridge over much of Australia its unbreakable and nothing can break through it from the north
Also the blocking pattern of a large high over the tasmen and an upper low over the Coral Sea both not moving so nothing can go anywere.

It will be a massive recod breaking event up there huge parts of the sate will get 300-500mm in 10 days
Many others in the 800-1500mm range huge totals and flooding likely

Some places may see 1500-2000m in a 10 day period just insane rainfall up there

[Wilko]

Thanks Twister

[tonycynic]

Went to bed with rain, an awesome light show and rolling thunder. Fantastic 18mm this morning according to the AWS. Very nice.

[JasmineStorm]

Nice to see it pop again south of the range last night ahead of the trough. Lucked out up here for the 2nd round but will bank the 13mm, to give me 15mm for January.

[hillybilly]

11mm for the event, which gives us about 24mm for January. Our average is 70mm give or take. Wierd month as we got our fair share of storms, but none really got going. Each individual storm gave less than 4mm, and most less than 2mm. Last night we scored about six which is why we scrapped over 10mm. Guess the moisture starved high based storms is symptomatic of fiercely hot uppers and airmasses which are more desert like.

Those storms look like they kicked on in a narrow line southeast of here with a series of sites getting around 30mm. Good for them

Bit of low stratus just south ATM which looks like drizzle. Not sure it will get here.

[Tassiedave]

Rain since 9am yesterday: Interlaken 32mm, Woods Lake 19mm, Mt Seymour 18mm, Nugent 17mm, Hobart Airport 5.6mm, Launceston 2.2mm, Hobart 0mm. Unless it rains in the next two hours it will be the equal driest ever month in 137 years of records for Hobart.

[Macedonian]

Well it certainly hasnt been a good or great month if you live north of melbourne. I've had about 13 days over 30C at 870m asl when i should expect maybe 2 in january or even potentially none. Nothing but awful heat and dry.
13mm of rain for the month, way below average and half of that total came in amounts too small to even water a lawn.
Ghastly month and pleased to see the back of it.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

14mm tipped out of plastic..

Huge Relief..

[Didjman]

only got 4mm in Wallan, but that was blowing sideways!!

[occluded]

Well that was quite the surprise last night, 16mm locally and plenty of lightning, thunder over the course of the evening. Only the dog was not impressed.

Reports of some hail in a small area of Donvale (near Serpells Terrace) where a number of large tree branches came down including two that fell on powerlines and blocked Springvale Rd for a number of hours.



https://twitter.com/ManninghamSES/statu ... 0626114560

[Dane]

Just on 15mm's up to 9am this morning brought the monthly total to 21.2mm's about half the average.

[wolfcat]

Lightning Stack Image from last nights storm.


Big Storm by Wolf, on Flickr


Total of 1.5mm in the gauge...

[JasmineStorm]

Lightning Stack Image from last nights storm.


Big Storm by Wolf, on Flickr


Total of 1.5mm in the gauge...

Superb

[Dane]

Great pic Wolf

[Gordon]

Time for a new thread? I'd start it, but don't know what to call it .

For two runs now, GFS has forecast 100mm plus just west of Melbourne mid next week - although BOM this afternoon has little interest. We can dream...

(PS: And yes, great pic!)

[Didjman]

I have some slomo CGs (1/10 normal speed), from last night (8mb file). How do I put it up on here?

[snowfall]

Finished the month with 20mm. Only had 3mm recorded until the storms last night, so a sudden surge to make the monthly total not quite so dire. Average maximum for the month was about 5 degrees above average, which is pretty extraordinary. Just have to hope that February is something closer to normal.

On a different note, amazing rain totals in North Queensland this summer - noticed that Cairns has had about 1400mm over the last two months. We need a bit of that down here!

[Sean]

Time for a new thread? I'd start it, but don't know what to call it .

For two runs now, GFS has forecast 100mm plus just west of Melbourne mid next week - although BOM this afternoon has little interest. We can dream...

(PS: And yes, great pic!)

If something taps the available moisture, it mightn't be a dream for long: https://eldoradoweather.com/climate/wor ... water.html

We shall see

[hillybilly]

Feels like autumn out there (for a day ). Currently 8C with a chilly southerly.

Back into the 30s by tomorrow, new thread time. Another warm to hot week with showers and storms. Could be quite productive going by the latest batch of Progs

BTW numbers just crunched show January 2019 was the hottest month for OZ and Victoria on record. I definitely can’t think of anything local which has come close to the relentless heat.