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VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by wolfcat »

Emptied a surprise 10mm out of the Nylex from last nights storms. Was more than I thought we got.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Adam38 »

Winds have swung to a southerly here so I’m guessing that no storms will develop here today, my google home last night forecast
today to be partly cloudy with a 10% chance of rain.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by weathergasm »

Variable but tending southerly winds here in Box Hill, very settled looking skies to the west, big billowing cumulus to the east. Signs don't look good for Melbourne metro if you're after a storm, unfortunately.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by James »

I really do not understand the idea of "forecast", as it really never is, when you "predict" something, but then change it many times closer to the date.

The thunderstorm forecast has changed multiple times (as do most others) defeating the point of a "forecast". I understand the weather changes but what i am saying is that "predicting the future" which forecasting is basically doing rarely ever seems to "work". So why do we persist on taking these forecasts as factual predictions and plan around them?

If a psychic was asked to predict a future event, but each day or multiple times per day revised their prediction after looking to see how likely it was going to happen, the concept of what they are there for would be questioned.

What i am saying is, i am tired of looking at maps telling me to take cover, change plans, prepare for this or that ..whatever, then being revised numerous times until nothing actually ever happens. Why do we as humans bother "predicting" what is un-predictable when its so very often pointless.

I understand in this case this system is one that is hit and miss, but the predictions, the forecasting and things read both on here and elsewhere have been totally off the mark, and sure enough after official warnings and maps and changing plans, "oh its not going to happen at all now"

So why should we ever take any notice of any forecast, why forecast?

I'm going to predict tornadoes for tommorow, then get everyone worked up, then on the actual day revise the forecast to calm and sunny... (and then prob get a tornado anyway).
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Macedonian »

The weather man on ABC last night said 25mm for Melbourne today.
I predict that he will be wrong :D
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by stevco123 »

James wrote: Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:51 pm I really do not understand the idea of "forecast", as it really never is, when you "predict" something, but then change it many times closer to the date.

The thunderstorm forecast has changed multiple times (as do most others) defeating the point of a "forecast". I understand the weather changes but what i am saying is that "predicting the future" which forecasting is basically doing rarely ever seems to "work". So why do we persist on taking these forecasts as factual predictions and plan around them?

If a psychic was asked to predict a future event, but each day or multiple times per day revised their prediction after looking to see how likely it was going to happen, the concept of what they are there for would be questioned.

What i am saying is, i am tired of looking at maps telling me to take cover, change plans, prepare for this or that ..whatever, then being revised numerous times until nothing actually ever happens. Why do we as humans bother "predicting" what is un-predictable when its so very often pointless.

I understand in this case this system is one that is hit and miss, but the predictions, the forecasting and things read both on here and elsewhere have been totally off the mark, and sure enough after official warnings and maps and changing plans, "oh its not going to happen at all now"

So why should we ever take any notice of any forecast, why forecast?

I'm going to predict tornadoes for tommorow, then get everyone worked up, then on the actual day revise the forecast to calm and sunny... (and then prob get a tornado anyway).

I agree with most of what you say, and I will refer to a comment I keep making. Many years ago the forecast used to come out at 5am, 11am, 4:30pm and 11pm, giving the BoM the opportunity to realise that after reading the models, the temp may not get to 35, or in fact there are no chance of storms.

Somo bozo somewhere decided that in order to cut costs they will now do it twice daily instead, and in the process that person also would have got a good end of year report for their work for process improvement.

BRING BACK THE 6 HOURLY FORECASTS BOM!!!! Hasnt your reputation been tarnished enough?


How good would it be if they updated their forecast at 11am today and stated 0-3mm. Then people wouldn't say the BoM got it wrong.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by James »

Well the current forcast still says storms and heavy falls, yet their updated map shows "only a chance" for the metro area with everything now focussed out east, (a big difference for the one they issued last night)

Then again it is getting harder to distinguish what is the official one or just re-hashed and re-issued by non official sources
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by weathergasm »

I was surprised that BOM were still so bullish in their 5am forecast given that the trough was clearly knocking on Melbourne's door at that time. Even their four day synoptic forecast showed how close it was predicted to be at 10am today.

I can only assume they thought the trough would stall over central areas, but instead it pretty steadily tracked east and had passed the CBD by 11am.

This is why earlier in the thread I was cautioning people to believe a thunderstorm was coming when they could see a rain curtain approaching.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Onetahuti »

One issue the BOM has is the demand from the media especially TV for 'forecasts' to coincide with their major bulletins times, namely breakfast and evening meal time when the bulk of the population tunes in.
How accurate they are in presenting what the BOM releases is another story, ie the ABC presenter saying 25mm for today, where did that come from anyway? The majority of viewers being ignorant would take that being for ALL of the metro area. How many apart from us weather tragics would listen for updates at other times.
Oh my next door neighbour insists his $2 shop gauge is very accurate.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by mick »

Unstable down the gipps coast, towers going up but the tops are being blown off.

EDIT first rumble.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Chritc »

Might not be completely out of the woods yet in metro.... Convection building to the north-west of the city extending inland to around Ballarat. Clearly a dry layer hampering vertical growth at the moment but it looks to be eroding.... Next 60mins will tell.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by mick »

Quickly before the power goes off

THis
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Is this
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2 010 [1024x768].JPG (138.88 KiB) Viewed 8135 times
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by hillybilly »

Got a quick 4mm this morning from that weak line of storms, so cracked 20mm for the event (actually 23mm to be precise). Happy with that for a start. Showery tomorrow morning, again on Saturday and again on Tuesday. Could well add up another 20mm for us, with 5-20mm most southern and mountain areas. Dandenongs has done pretty well with most spots getting 15-30mm. Best seems to be just on the front edge in the north, coming down the middle in the south. Really did need it.

Not surprised with today's outcome. Trough was too early, and we are sat in a local area of subsidence between the main trough in the easerlies to our north and the low in the westerlies to our south. Quite incredible humidity out there with temperatures near 30C and a DP just shy of 20C. More like Brisbane weather than Melbourne weather :o
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Skywalker »

4:25pm forecast is out.

Melbourne area
Humid. Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower later tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm with heavy falls about the nearby hills this evening. Winds southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the late evening.


So 80% chance down to 20%. :hysteria:
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by James »

they are still clinging to heavy falls and thunderstorms about the hills....i am never going to beleive them again!
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Didjman »

mick wrote: Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:15 pm Quickly before the power goes off

THis
eqwet.JPG
Is this
2 010 [1024x768].JPG
WOW!! WHAT a pic! Haven't seen one of those for ages.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by nafets »

16.5mm in Ascot Vale from yesterdays storms. Lots of convection north of here with the sun blocked now. Cell up near Yan Yean and a shower near the Airport.
Go the bombersss!
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by mick »

Thanks Didj. It does not happen too often at Seaspray. Seaspray is in a rain shadow.
I dont know why. Its either the pine plantations or the barren paddocks between them.
Thousands of acres of sheep paddocks with not a tree on them, its a bloody crime.
Here you can see that rain shadow in action. It just splits.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by weathergasm »

Time to say the magic words, storm-hungry Melburnians: diurnal cooling.

It's our last hope!
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by hillybilly »

weathergasm wrote: Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:31 pm Time to say the magic words, storm-hungry Melburnians: diurnal cooling.

It's our last hope!
Not a chance. There is a subsidence inversion about 10,000 feet. That’s why the Cu in the southerlies are flattening. It’s all over for central areas. May be the stray Cu that pops, but it’s too cool in the low levels now with a southerly to crack through the stable layer.

The EC model and others all went from today being a big storm day, to a day with not much in one or two runs. Problem for us was the trough deepened and drifted southern yesterday and left us between an inland trough over NSW and a low over Tasmania. All subtle, but all the difference. We sat in the stable zone inbetween :(

A forecast is simply a statement of what is assessed as the most likely outcome. The range is show by the probabilities or spread across models and model ensemble members. Worth browsing the charts at https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... ssure.html to get an idea for how confident you should be. When every model agrees then uncertainty is low, and when they spread then it’s uncertain. Most the spread actually comes from the simple fact that forecast errors double every day or two into the future. You start with something imperfect and it grows. That growth is unavoidable. No one can avoid that error growth. You can lessen it by getting better and better observations (hence the huge effort in satellites etc) and better weather models which slice the planet into smaller and smaller squares.
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