There is a warning out for the high probability of a cyclone forming in the Indian ocean. FEB 2012
If you look at the sat' pic' 2 posts above you can see the cyclone starting to take shape
Here is the 'low down' from
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 812web.txtWTXS21 PGTW 082330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 69.9E TO 15.8S 60.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081930Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 69.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
69.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 67.0E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BANDING CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LLCC, WITH DEEPER CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE
LLCC. A RECENT 082123Z AMSU-B PASS SUPPORTS THE BANDING OBSERVED IN
IR IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
UNDER WEAK (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING IR SATELLITE SIGNATURE, FAVORABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING,
THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092330Z.//
NNNN
. 
