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Vic - Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10 2020

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Vic - Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10 2020

Post by hillybilly »

A rapid warm up showing up in the progs for Thursday into Friday ahead of a strong front on Friday. The heat tends to split the state on both days, being hot in the west/northwest on Thursday and east on Friday while central tends to miss the peak. Wind will get very gusty. Temperatures mostly peaking around the mid 30s to about 40C so short of the ridiculous highs of recent events :?

There’s an excellent hookup with the tropics with precipitable water values approaching 50mm near the trough. The upslide isn’t great which is a shame, but still looks like 2-10mm quite widespread. All models (bar EC) are showing heavier falls trough central and adjacent mountain areas, locally topping 25mm. This scenario looks credible given the timing on the system etc.
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by Gordon »

So good to finally be able to see potential rain on a semi-regular basis; still cool and cloudy here so the heat spike for us will be short. Clothes on the line are still damp after a day and a half - took about half an hour to dry them a week ago!

(Looking like another significant system around the 16th, though too far out for a thread just yet!)
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by Tassiedave »

Tas temps today: Ouse 29.8, Cressy 29.5, Launceston 27.6, Fingal 25.4, Hobart 23.2, St Helens 21.2
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by hillybilly »

EC on board for decent falls now. There is a remarkable agreement tonight across the progs with 5-10mm most areas, with around 25mm locally in east central through neighbouring parts of South Gippsland and northeast. The tropical infeed is excellent with precipitable water values near 50mm over Melbourne around noon. Been a while since we saw one of those :o
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by James »

any thunder likely with it?
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by hillybilly »

James wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:34 pm any thunder likely with it?
EC doesn’t think so. It looks more like a stratiform rainband sitting a few hours being the prefrontal trough. Given the depth of the cloud, would be a chance for an embed rumble, but wouldn’t tend to think widespread.
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by hillybilly »

Progs looking pretty similar. Foggy here this morning, again. That’s six days with fog in a row. I expect we will get fog here tomorrow arvo and probably Saturday morning. Bit of a change from those horrible dry air masses from a few weeks back. Let’s hope this pattern sticks for the rest of summer.
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by Didjman »

Satpic looking good this morning re cloudband from Ex Blake to the front. If nothing else, it should cool the red centre a bit😊😊
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by Tassiedave »

A real roller coaster for Melbourne in the next 7 days: 33, 18, 21, 32, 27, 29, 19
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by Tassiedave »

Tas temps today Bushy Park 33.1, Ouse 33.0, Campania 32.5, Grove 32.0, Hobart 30.9, Launceston 28.3, Wynyard 21.9
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by WeatherViewer »

Tassiedave wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:12 pm Tas temps today Bushy Park 33.1, Ouse 33.0, Campania 32.5, Grove 32.0, Hobart 30.9, Launceston 28.3, Wynyard 21.9
It seems much of Tassie is consistently warmer than Melbourne these days. :?
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by Didjman »

Top of 34.1 here this arvo. Not bad at 328m ASL
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by snowfall »

Reached 32.6c here today. Very hazy skies all day and almost no wind. Quite humid too - currently 27c with a DP of 17.2c. Will be good to get some rain tomorrow. I suspect we might be rain shadowed to some extent, so not expecting a great deal here, but even a few mm would be welcome.
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by hillybilly »

Warm one here today with a max of 28C. Seriously humid. DP in the mid to high teens most the time.

Trough is through here quite early then a rainband to follow. The cooler air lags a long way back so will take a longtime to finally cool down. Holding pretty well in the progs, and signs that eastern areas could get a decent fall as well as east central. Fingers crossed this delivers.
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by QldTwister »

Humid last few days with Dps in the mid to high teens like 17 to 19c atm almost tropical its nice out there.

Wet East of Melb and West Gippy tomorrow 10-20mm easy with a few 30mms or so wet on places that dont really need it.
Give it to the NW Vic, the Murray, East Gipsland, SE NSW, places that look to miss out mostly but really really need it.
Though East Gippy might do ok heres hoping.

Had 14mm last event likely get the same again this event.

Im getting MORE EXCITED about the possible Ely Dip mid to late next week, days of thunderstorms and moist NEly winds, much of Qld, Nsw and even Vic looking good much of Vic should do well to but Melb on the edge ranges North and East could do very well

The patterns are a changing
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by tonycynic »

Winds are picking up here in Doveton, going to be a nasty day if these keep up. Looking forwards to some rain filling the new water tanks. If anyone is interested I have seen clean 1000L tanks for sale at $30 each.
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by Skywalker »

Wind has picked up here on the island too. Going to be a horrible day from a fire prospective.
The flies have been out in force lately, so that could also be a sign of things changing.
Here's hoping that we may salvage something out of a practically non-existent storm season.
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by Macedonian »

QldTwister wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:26 am Humid last few days with Dps in the mid to high teens like 17 to 19c atm almost tropical its nice out there.

Wet East of Melb and West Gippy tomorrow 10-20mm easy with a few 30mms or so wet on places that dont really need it.
Give it to the NW Vic, the Murray, East Gipsland, SE NSW, places that look to miss out mostly but really really need it.
Though East Gippy might do ok heres hoping.

Had 14mm last event likely get the same again this event.

Im getting MORE EXCITED about the possible Ely Dip mid to late next week, days of thunderstorms and moist NEly winds, much of Qld, Nsw and even Vic looking good much of Vic should do well to but Melb on the edge ranges North and East could do very well

The patterns are a changing
I can't imagine which bits of victoria yiu mean when you say "they don't really need it". It's mid summer in Victoria, everyone really needs it.
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by Skywalker »

Macedonian wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:07 am
QldTwister wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:26 am Humid last few days with Dps in the mid to high teens like 17 to 19c atm almost tropical its nice out there.

Wet East of Melb and West Gippy tomorrow 10-20mm easy with a few 30mms or so wet on places that dont really need it.
Give it to the NW Vic, the Murray, East Gipsland, SE NSW, places that look to miss out mostly but really really need it.
Though East Gippy might do ok heres hoping.

Had 14mm last event likely get the same again this event.

Im getting MORE EXCITED about the possible Ely Dip mid to late next week, days of thunderstorms and moist NEly winds, much of Qld, Nsw and even Vic looking good much of Vic should do well to but Melb on the edge ranges North and East could do very well

The patterns are a changing
I can't imagine which bits of victoria yiu mean when you say "they don't really need it". It's mid summer in Victoria, everyone really needs it.
Couldn't of said it better myself.
Yes the fire area's desperately need the rain, but in the end we ALL need it!
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Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Post by QldTwister »

More so saying city folk and east of the city in the hills and parts of West and south Gippy still bits of green and water still comes out of the tap when you turn it on for 1000s further inlnad it does not, and your place is not on fire, or hasnt had rain for months etc.

So much worst in other parts than in central parts of vic and west south gippy

Anyway change moving up the bay nice out there tad humid too, wet and cold afternoon on the way easy 10-20mm here
Bring on the heat and stroms
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