Rain and storms: December 21-23

[hillybilly]

Decent looking system to start the new week with warm humid conditions ahead of an approaching and deepening trough. Widespread rain and showers, which will continue into Tuesday. Could well be heavy falls, though details vary a fair bit as to where and how much. Be nice to get one more big event before we run down to 2021.

[Gordon]

Blimey! EC now has us down for 50mm for these dates, compared to 0.5mm forecast just a couple of days ago . GFS had 1mm or less for the same period; still not overly excited but now 10mm plus. ACCESS very excited as snowfall pointed out in the previous thread .

Today's 5.30am BOM Ballarat forecast (for the record):

Monday 21 December
Shower or two. Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm Chance of any rain: 60%

Tuesday 22 December
Shower or two. Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm Chance of any rain: 60%

Guessing the 4.30pm update may look a little different .

If this comes off as a decent rain event, it'll be the biggest forecast flip for this area for many years, and to be fair, not just from BOM but most of the models too.

Edit: 4.30 update

Monday 21 December
Showers increasing. Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm Chance of any rain: 80%

Tuesday 22 December
Shower or two. Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 70%

[StratoBendigo]

Timing might not be great though. I was hoping to see the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction on Monday evening....

I hope it's not overcast.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Timing might not be great though. I was hoping to see the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction on Monday evening....

I hope it's not overcast.

Saw that last night..

[StratoBendigo]

Timing might not be great though. I was hoping to see the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction on Monday evening....

I hope it's not overcast.

Saw that last night..

I got a great view of it just 10 minutes ago. They're certainly close.

Anyway, EC ramps it up to 20mm here for Monday-Tuesday. Much less on most other forecasts.

[hillybilly]

Progs really ramped this up, and now producing a very deep low in Bas Strait. EC has the pressure dropping to about 990hPa near Wilson Prom, with a swly sting jet.

Rain totals are substantial with EC plus most models showing 30-60mm most southern and mountain areas, dropping off as you go north. Depending on the cyclonic swly part, would not be surprised to see totals approach or even go past 100mm in the Yarra Ranges. Could be quite a storm surge on the central and south Gippsland coast.

Not really a storm event. Perhaps some rumbles, but more a rain band followed by lots of stream showers.

[StratoBendigo]

Where the low ends up will be crucial in determining what happens. EC is certainly bullish with a wrap-around that could create problems in some places. We could get 5 or 30mm here given we're North of the Divide.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Warning out now..
is there wind also.. .?
I’ve just started packing up the bedding out of the lounge..
not wanting to be redoing the undo..

[weathergasm]

BOM being very bullish about this system for Melbourne, but I get skeptical when I see the low so close to Melbourne in the synoptic charts. There have been so many events I can remember where the low ended up in the wrong place and we just ended up with a few showers

Will wait and see

[Tassiedave]

Tas rain today: Launceston 17mm, Westwood 11mm, L'ton Airport 6.4mm, Deloraine 5.2mm, St Helens 3mm

[chasersaddict76]

Really very wet for SW to across Melbourne.

I thought the moist might start shift from West to N/NE ward across Northern Country.

So wait n see

[Australis(Shell3155)]

90%
10-20 today
20-40 tomorrow
May need a load of fire wood.

[hillybilly]

Low looks too close to Melbourne tomorrow morning. Will put the heaviest falls through western area. Still looks good, but not great for central and east. Still, thinking 50mm in the Nongs, but down from the 100mm it was looking like 24 hours ago. Of course, the progs could wiggle again. Odd storm in western areas, and tomorrow could also see storms, particularly central and eastern areas during the arvo. This won’t be a big storm event - more a rain event.

Down in Walkerville where it’s a mild humid morning. Got stratus racing in from the east at about 200m above sea level so very moist.

[StratoBendigo]

Looks to be a 15mm kind of system for us.

Good thing is there's no sign of temps over 35c for the next 10 days. In fact most days less than 26c. Quite a contrast with last year.

Some decent rain in Central Australia too in recent days. La-Nina arrives...

[chasersaddict76]

We having less hot days this year is Solar minimum and La Niña.

From 30c over my Kangaroo Flat VIC record.

2019

Oct, 2 days
Nov, 6 days
Dec, 17 days

2020

Oct, 0
Nov, 9
Dec, 4

[Dane]

Having less Hot days here too, just 17 days over 30c this year (9 of those were in January) ave is 24 days.
And just 3 days over 35c - all of those were in January.
Zero Days over 40.

[stevco123]

7 days under 20 degrees here this December. And most likely an 8th AND 9th this week. Means a third of the month was under 20 degrees (roughly)

[StratoBendigo]

Not much happening rain wise so far today. Radar is definitely over-cooking it.

[Sean]

Tue morning looks best... Really takes its time to get cranking.

Given my luck lately, I expect 5mm by midday tomorrow lol

[hillybilly]

Progs bump totals again. Could well score 25-50mm for most southern and mountain areas. Looks to peak in central, though not clear whether it is west central or east central. Progs mostly favouring east central, but bit of variation. They are putting locally 50-100mm under the peak of the wrap around so be interesting to see where that lands.

0.5mm here so far. Started to get convective out there and humid. Could well get a rumble locally solid falls out west already

Edit> just caught the edge of that band of thunder showers. 2mm in quick time. Few gauges which caught the red spots already over 10mm