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Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

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StratoBendigo
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by StratoBendigo »

Probably worth noting that mid-January looks like it might be hideously hot for Northern Vic.
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chasersaddict76
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by chasersaddict76 »

Our stormchaser chapter is closed and tropical is leaving US to switch to heatwave from WA but too early yet by GFS charts
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hillybilly
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by hillybilly »

Thick fog and heavy drizzle here overnight. 4mm more in the gauge. We are closing in on 30mm for the event, so nearly half way to the average. Feeling quite wintery, after all that humidity,

Looks like a wet 48 hours for much of southern Vic with a cyclonic southerly flow, with an embed little low just east of Melbourne. There’s the potential for some storms on the northeast side of the low (focus just northeast of Melbourne).

Expecting moderate to heavy falls in the usual wet spots - south facing slopes, south Gippsland Hills etc. No complaint from me on this weather :D

Some heat coming up in about 5+ days.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Tassiedave »

Tas rainfall last 24 hrs: Flinders Island 62mm, Eddystone 50mm, Gray 37mm, Upper Esk 31mm, Friendly Beaches 25mm, St Helens 24mm, Scottsdale 24mm, Launceston 6mm, Hobart 0mm
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Adam38
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Adam38 »

I’m up to 31mm for the event so far, a little disappointed not to get any thunderstorms but the rain has been most welcome. The rainfall total for 2020 here was 595mm according to the nearby Melbourne water rain gauge, that is slightly above the average.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Gordon »

Snap! 4mm of heavy drizzle brings us to 31mm too. Turning into a decent start to Jan. (And the longer the heat stays away the better :))
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by snowfall »

14.6mm here since midnight, with almost continuous drizzle and showers. The drizzle is quite thick, so adding up a lot. That puts us on 33mm for the event so far, with some more to come during today.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by snowfall »

Gordon wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:12 am (And the longer the heat stays away the better :))
Couldn't agree more. It has been amazingly mild so far this summer, which is just perfect as far as I am concerned! Unfortunately, the heat is on its way :(
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Gordon »

Oh well, guess we can't avoid the heat forever - it is January after all. (At least ACCESS and GFS have a strong, rainy front showing up for 13 Jan so hopefully any hot, dry weather is short lived.)

Meanwhile, some amazing stats from BOM coming in from BOM for this event :o :

- 223mm for 2 days to 9am at Mt Sabine in the Otways.
- 40mm in 15 minutes on Saturday at Warrnambool.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by hillybilly »

Bleak summer weather in the Nongs. Thick drizzle, gusty winds, thick fog and 13C. Fire is roaring :D

Added another 9mm since 9am so rapidly approach 40mm. Should see at least 50mm from here, and thinking 70mm or so is not out of the question which would put us just over the long term average.

Very strong topographic enhancement with precip rising from 2-4mm to around 10mm as you rise from the foothills to the ridge tops since 9am.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

And it rained and rained and rained..
18mm yesterday and seems to be 7 in today.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Wilko »

Why does Sydney get all the fun weather :P
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Adam38 »

Rain in the forecast for tomorrow, 10-20mm possible here.
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Onetahuti
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Onetahuti »

Adam38 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:57 pm Rain in the forecast for tomorrow, 10-20mm possible here.
Is my mind getting forgetful or am I correct in thinking the BOM hasn't been so specific in the timing of rainfall over the metro area?

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, most likely in western suburbs in the morning and developing in eastern suburbs from late morning. Rain easing to showers during the afternoon.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by hillybilly »

Max of 13.8C here today :snowflake: :snowflake: :snowflake: :snowflake: (well not quite but you get the idea). Is getting down there for January. Up to 12mm now since 9am. We have not quite got the best of it, with heavier falls just east of me. Been foggy all day with drizzle varying from light to torrential :D

Looks like a very wet 24 hours ahead. EC has falls of 20-60mm around central. Perhaps not quite the way I expected to get the promised rain, but no complaints when so much of the state gets a good watering in the middle of summer.

Btw the Mt Sabine 194.4mm to 9am is the highest Vic total since 2012. It does show what potential was there.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Skywalker »

hillybilly wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:16 pm Fire is roaring
Fire going in the middle of Summer? Come on HB, toughen up! :P
Onetahuti wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:05 pm Is my mind getting forgetful or am I correct in thinking the BOM hasn't been so specific in the timing of rainfall over the metro area?
Had to read that twice myself. The BOM actually does perform miracle's & works on their forecasts from time to time. :o

Been drizzly & wet all day down here on the island, and it's going to ramp up overnight by the looks of things. Other place isn't missing out either which is great! :D
Rosie the Kelpie isn't impressed, got soaked twice today. She was very reluctant to get off her bed tonight for her walk, I wonder why. ;)
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Adam38
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Adam38 »

I have a Greyhound that likes walking in the rain unfortunately... 🤣
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by snowfall »

Up to 21.8mm here since midnight. The drizzle stopped for a few hours late this afternoon, but has now returned. Chilly here too (at least for January), with a max of 14c, and 12.8c currently.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Luken »

At Coongulla on the shores of Lake Glenmaggie for 20 nights! Yay! Lake pretty high, will be interested to see if tomorrow's rain on top of recent has any impact.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by hillybilly »

Skywalker wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:00 pm
hillybilly wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:16 pm Fire is roaring
Fire going in the middle of Summer? Come on HB, toughen up! :P
Think of it as a little fuel reduction burn :D we accumulate a couple of barrow loads of branches each week in summer so no shortage needing disposal ;) That said, we still don’t have fire restrictions, and at this rate may well go a summer without them.

Still thick drizzle. Up to 14mm since 9am. Fog is to the base of the Dandenongs so somewhere below 100m atm.

There’s heavier drizzle and rain moving into South Gippsland atm as the cyclonic centre slowly edges northwest. Really odd system for mid summer, but no complaints.
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