Deep low, followed by cold outbreak: June 22-30

[Gordon]

A cold, windy day here (again!) with a quickfire 3mm from the midday band of rain.

(Snow forecast for the higher Macdonnell Ranges in NT late in the week .)

[Didjman]

(Snow forecast for the higher Macdonnell Ranges in NT late in the week .)

What about Uluru / Kata Tjuta??

[Gordon]

(Snow forecast for the higher Macdonnell Ranges in NT late in the week .)

What about Uluru / Kata Tjuta??

Too low I think - here's the Mt Zeil forecast (1500m asl):



It will be interesting to see how this cold air/ moisture mix plays out for us southeasterners.

[hillybilly]

Messy wind down to this system as the deep low slowly fade into the westerlies. Bands of showers and storms in the usual spot. Snow about the peaks. We do get a fairly strong front on Tuesday which flushes out the moisture and introduced somewhat cooler air.

The inland situation is crazy. Big upper trough going north to end up in the NT mid to late in the week. Heavy rain and even snow on the forecast at higher elevations. There are a few reports of snow in the records for the southern NT including Uluṟu, so does happen but would guess perhaps a once in five to ten year event. Given the sparse population and difficulty of getting to the peaks there are very poor historical observations. Mt Woodroffe in far northern SA has an elevation of over 1400m and same latitude as the Bunya Mountains in Queensland which occasionally see snow so suspect the lack of reports is more to do with population and dry climate, than temperatures.

[stevco123]

That inland weather event looks like (for now) it will affect the NT and then NSW/QLD. Victoria looks to be too far west for any significant weather. Quite interesting weather coming up for Australia this week actually.

[StratoBendigo]

Pouring rain here again this evening. Very wintry and quite epic Jetstream winds North of here atm.

[snowfall]

Had some heavy showers here late this afternoon and evening. 14.6mm for the weekend, including a few showers yesterday.

Models still showing big unseasonal rains across parts of central Australia and into QLD this week.

[StratoBendigo]

10mm overnight. 53mm in the past week.

Looks drier for the next week, but June has certainly delivered - almost double the average.

[Gordon]

A mere 11mm for us for the dates, but 87mm mtd puts us 4mm over our June average, so no complaints.

Now up to a metre of snow in the Alps - not bad for June! The Cedarwood cam at Falls Creek deserves special mention this morning if you haven't already seen it: https://www.ski.com.au/snowcams/austral ... wood1.html

Edit: just saw Mt William is up to 306mm for the month!

[hillybilly]

Blustery Monday here, but basically fine. Too much topography between us and the ocean.

Next few days kinda look similar with heavy showers for coastal VIC and western Tasmania. Becomes more sparse as you head inland. Bit colder air come mid week, but chill is a bit underwhelming. We are still to see a proper low level snow event here and Wellington is snow free.

Impressive system building for the red centre.

[StratoBendigo]

Our wettest June since 1995 here.

Incidentally, some historical precedent looking back at the records - 1987 had very similar rainfall in its first 6 months. And that was an El-Nino year with a similar SOI trajectory to 2023.

A foggy start today. Currently 10c.

[hillybilly]

Very westerly down here so another inch or so on the west coast, and couple of points on the east coast Finally turned wintery down here, with snow on the Mountain.

Still a couple more fronts to come in the sequence before the next high comes in. One around Thursday evening and the other around Saturday morning.

Great falls over the centre, and edged into southern NSW and Northwest VIC. Not quite living up to early forecasts but any rain is welcome.

Be interesting to see what snow happens in unusual places. Temps look ok, but precip perhaps hit and miss. Quite a split between EC and GFS on whether it will just be cold or cold and still wet.

[snowfall]

Still struggling to get above 10c here. Max today was 9.8c. It has been a month of two halves - very mild in the first two weeks and then much cooler in the last two. But windy pretty much all the way through!

We’ll finish up on 97mm for the month. So close to the ton but not quite.

A big high is slowly moving in over the next few days, although it doesn’t look like it will hang around for too long before the westerlies re-establish.

No obvious signs of any major cold outbreaks on the horizon, but there’s still plenty of winter to go so hopefully something will turn up.

[hillybilly]

Cold rainy one down here to largely end the sequence. Early frost then just on 4mm of rain during the arvo. The system was warm frontal so snow lines have gone up as it’s went through.

Guess new thread time for the wandering upper trough Started in southwest WA is current in central NT and will be back over Victoria early next week. One of the strangest systems I’ve ever seen.

[hillybilly]

Squeezed out a mm from the last front. All too westerly. One that slipped a bit under the radar was Mt Read which cracked 100mm on Friday which is a new June record for the site. Remarkable how productive the westerlies can be out there.

Guess new thread time. Next system peaks west of the southeast again. Will be a good rainfall event (probably) for western Tas and much of northern and coastal Vic.

[Macedonian]

Still struggling to get above 10c here. Max today was 9.8c. It has been a month of two halves - very mild in the first two weeks and then much cooler in the last two. But windy pretty much all the way through!

We’ll finish up on 97mm for the month. So close to the ton but not quite.

A big high is slowly moving in over the next few days, although it doesn’t look like it will hang around for too long before the westerlies re-establish.

No obvious signs of any major cold outbreaks on the horizon, but there’s still plenty of winter to go so hopefully something will turn up.

We had 162mm on Mt Macedon!