Vic: Fronts and troughs 9 - 19 July

[hillybilly]

Radar starting to thicken up as the next front approaches. Still one more to come after this on Sunday morning, though that one could slip under us.

MTD here is now on 90mm. Need about 20mm to average. Be nice to score that overnight, but suspect more like 5-10mm.

Progs starting to look drier for the week ahead. EC has just 3mm for Melbourne next 7 days so going to be a bit of a change.

[Gordon]

I can't remember the last time I thought this, but with this area one big bog (nearly 16 inches of rain since the start of May) I'm quite looking forward to a few fine days.

[hillybilly]

Bit over 3mm overnight. MTD near 95mm. Looks dry for 36 hours now, then the odd shower on Sunday.

Becoming quite mild. Nothing unusual, but not really that wintery.

[Tassiedave]

Rain overnight in Tas: Mt Read 40mm, Strahan 17mm, Pine Tree Rivulet 16mm, Mt Victoria 14mm, Cressy 6mm, Devonport 2mm, L'ton Airport 1.6mm

[Sean]

Another week of the mid to high teens. Boring

[hillybilly]

Sneaked 0.2mm of mizzle yesterday so our run of wet days continues (now up to 13 days). Another front for tomrrow morning, with locally a few mms.

Gonna get a weak/moderate front about every second day the next week. Unfortunately, not a lot penetrating far inland and not very cold, but coastal parts and ranges will add up steadily.

[chasersaddict76]

Had slow isolated showers past 4 days to 7mm and now lovey Sunny feels spring day...

Its worry we only got another 6 weeks left of winter to bring easy showers....As North Half of Australia is very dry and warmer, wont not surprise me me if Victoria turn to back to desert faster but ENSO Outlook is currently INACTIVE at moment.

[flyfisher]

You are right - the current wet spell is southern ocean driven. But come Spring we depend on the Indian ocean and it's not playing ball at all. Very cold temps out that way will starve us of moisture. I spent some time looking at ocean currents on null and it appears the Indonesian through flow is basically shutdown. The warm pacific waters are being turned back north of PNG instead of flowing through to the Indian ocean.

It's that Modooki set up in the Pacific that's starving the Indian ocean of warm water. Good news however is south of the equator the warm water is turning back towards QLD - it's warming up the Coral sea right to Cape York and hopefully spill into the Indian ocean that way. Gives some hope for low level moisture for summer - but our Spring here is stuffed in my opinion, on the broad scale at least.

[chasersaddict76]

Interesting Ocean temperature looks cool down towards Brisbane and South Pole 30Hpa looks little warmer but might drop more colder in August as looks average.