Becoming warm to hot, followed by showers: January 22-27

[hillybilly]

A bit of a mixed bag this week with a couple of warm to hot days (north) followed by a weak low mid week with steadily cooling uppers heading into the long weekend. Not expecting much weather, but could be a weak rainband mid week, depending on moisture streaming out of the tropical low near WA, and showers on the coast.

Temps will get toastie in the northern Mallee, but looks like the most intense heat will stay back in SA and NSW.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

13.8c @7am.
Hardly summer weather, long pants and jumpers, No Sun.
.

[WeatherViewer]

13.8c @7am.
Hardly summer weather, long pants and jumpers, No Sun.
.

I wouldn't mind a bit of warmth and sun today. We've got the rest of the year to enjoy the cool overcast conditions.

[QldTwister]

Excaly WV got all April to October to enjoy cool cold cloudy depressing weather bring on som hot sunny days for beach BBQ open house up get little sweat on so nice

[Skywalker]

Don't worry guys, school's back next week so I have no doubt the heat is just around the corner.

[WeatherViewer]

Don't worry guys, school's back next week so I have no doubt the heat is just around the corner.

I certainly wouldn't complain about a nice long Indian Summer. March 2013 and 2017 spring to mind!

[Didjman]

I certainly wouldn't complain about a nice long Indian Summer. March 2013 and 2017 spring to mind!

1994 was a good one too!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Winge was worth it..
Got a tiny bit of light blue faded with white beige and grey….
Some is better than none….
Beans might even sprout..

[hillybilly]

Our coolest day yesterday in a while with a max of 16C. Not really complaining as it makes going to work easier.

Warming up the next few days. We avoid the real heat, but probably mid 20s Wednesday and Thursday. Heat creeps into the far northwest of VIC, but overall warm rather than particularly hot. We are lucky with this heat, with 50s possible in inland SA and southwest QLD mid week. Today, a chance for 50 to 51C in the coastal Pilbara. The airmass has set numerous records across the middle of Australia, both max and mins, but we’ve avoid it.

Rain looks patchy at best. Might see a light rainband for northern Vic on Thursday and eastern Tas on Wednesday, otherwise just coastal showers in breezy conditions.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

11c @ 7.00am.
Far from hot.

[James]

Just enough sun today to finally ripen those poor tomatos that were hanging in there, but now they have split....too much wet cold and then heat/sun....I feel their confusion this contrasting weather makes me feel the same....

[Dane]

Active high based storm just passed to the south of me here in Ballarat - Sebastopol no rain but several CG's and loud thunder that woke me up. Temp still 23 at 3.55am. That's the 5th thunder day this month.
Tracker shows plenty of activity in the SW of the state so may get some more later.

[hillybilly]

Looks like a lot of lightening around Melbs to start the day. All high based and really fast moving. Not seeing much weather today for most of us from about 8am.

Record or near record heat to our north with both day and highs being approached or broken, but we sit south of it all.

[stevco123]

Looks like a lot of lightening around Melbs to start the day. All high based and really fast moving. Not seeing much weather today for most of us from about 8am.

Record or near record heat to our north with both day and highs being approached or broken, but we sit south of it all.

Great Typical summer weather then- it takes a lot for very hot air to be dragged down over the south east.
Those areas north are hot every summer but it just depends on whether a heat bubble hits over one measly weather station. There are several thousand square kilometres where the temperature is not measured and no doubt there is a 50 degree maximum somewhere (as there no doubt would have been in the past).

Bit cooler today than forecast, looking forward to the more comfortable low to mid 20s in the next 7 days.

[snowfall]

Lots of lightning and a few big thunder claps early this morning, but only 0.6mm in the gauge. We had a very strong and gusty northerly overnight as well.

The road ahead is looking pretty dry, with the pattern shifting after the monsoon kicked in. Hopefully it won't be a completely dry February, although that has been the outcome the past few years, even when January has been wet. Still lots of very warm water all around Australia, including large areas of high precipitable water vapour. So, things could potentially turn very wet if the synoptics shift. Unfortunately, SAM is pretty much neutral for now.

Looking even further ahead, is it possible we might end up with a La Nina and maybe even a negative IOD this year? Obviously it's all very early days but pacific trade winds are currently stronger than usual, potentially pushing more warm water our way, although it remains to be seen whether or how long this lasts...

[hillybilly]

One 40C day in ten years?

We’ve had nine in the past five years in Melbourne. The number has increased a lot as you’d expect given Australia has warmed by 1.5C. Theres nothing normal about 50C in Australia.

The cloud band over northern Victoria has stalled and is edging south. Will be some patchy rain for tomorrow. Expect solid falls for the northeast, possibly extending west. Melbourne looks on the edge of the rain, so bit flip of the coin. For TAS, light showers out west.

[Didjman]

Morning all, a few rumbles around here atm with more coming.

[Supercellimpact]

Just got hit with a small storm. Maybe 5mm in it.

[James]

storms all skirting above or below me today, seems to be the common pattern most of the time

[greysrigging]

Looks like a lot of lightening around Melbs to start the day. All high based and really fast moving. Not seeing much weather today for most of us from about 8am.

Record or near record heat to our north with both day and highs being approached or broken, but we sit south of it all.

Great Typical summer weather then- it takes a lot for very hot air to be dragged down over the south east.
Those areas north are hot every summer but it just depends on whether a heat bubble hits over one measly weather station. There are several thousand square kilometres where the temperature is not measured and no doubt there is a 50 degree maximum somewhere (as there no doubt would have been in the past).

Bit cooler today than forecast, looking forward to the more comfortable low to mid 20s in the next 7 days.

Thing is re +50c max temps in AU, vast areas of Central Australia are at modest altitude ie 400m-500m asl, and using the standard dry air lapse rate of 1c/100m, large parts of the Continent have a record high sea level equivalent close to 51c, with the highest being just over 53c.
Realistically, the only places where a +50c temp is likely is at low altitude sites below 100m asl.
Note that of the +50c's recorded officially, Oodnadatta is the stand out with 2 such days in 1960 and at an altitude of 117m asl.
The BoM network has a better than one imagines coverage in all the likely extreme heat spots ie inland low altitude, apart from Lake Eyre. Extreme high max temps, away from the coasts are pretty well spatially coherent given the whole 1c/100m lapse rate thing...
I looked up many of the +49c max temps recorded on the BoM's data base.... the highest altitude site I could find was Leonora ( 49.0c ) in Jan 2013 ( altitude 384m asl. )
The next highest altitude site with a +49c is Marble Bar quite a few times since 1905. Altitude 182m asl.
And a real standout is Forrest, WA: 49.8c and a 49.5c at 159m asl !
All the other places +49c in QLD, SA, NSW and WA are below 100m asl.