Developing low with more rain and storms: January 15-20

[jimmyay]

Another inch of rain today, great for time of year, these consistent heavy events.

Drove to Adelaide and back from Melbourne last weekend, it’s pretty green all the way - lush, even, in some parts, grass growing through freshly cut wheat fields etc. even in the typically drier areas.

never seen it like that this time of year.

The hills look like it’s springtime, amazing really.

[dazrain]

Melbourne CBD has had 4 days with over 10mm of rain this Jan, plus an 8.2mm also.

I assume this is not a record for Jan but seems highly unusual.

We have also had four 30 degree days already and that’s up only 17 Jan!

[Adam38]

20mm here followed by a beautiful afternoon. It’s so amazingly green almost subtropical looking around town.

[QldTwister]

Hello all Happy New Year hope you are all well.

Was on South America for 3 weeks over xmas new year getting nice hot summer weather and even a few storms was so good glad missed all the cold here.

148mm in rain guage when I got back thats alot of rain really has being a wet cool summer crazy very Lan Nina lol

Had 5mm with storm other night got back from tennis and it dumped nice light show was right on edge lots booming thunder last few night so hot and humid just prefect

26mm with rain band today getting close to 200mm for the summer just crazy wet.

My window of hot days and long nights only got weeks left and I think we will see fronts return late month into Feb NOOO loving these tropoical intrustuons but more days in mid 30s be nice plesae sir i want more

Cool few days well mild for most then brief heat mid next week then stronger front will flush things out but might be beingings of a new pattern

Still no 35c for spring summer crazy

[hillybilly]

Very welcome event down here with just shy of 20mm. Across northern parts of TAS, pretty general 20-50mm falls. South a bit patchier but most spots got at least 15mm, and a few did better with local storms. Heard one rumble here, and was even a possible water spout over our local bay https://pulsehobart.com.au/news/watersp ... ses-state/

A small low moves up for today. It’s old and looking pretty ragged on the satellite image but will produce some showers and perhaps even the odd rumble. Will be mostly a western TAS and Bass Strait day, but some showers will spread inland.

Good to see the extreme heat for next week has moved north, so Mallee might not get higher than the low 40s. A couple of model runs had near 50C at one point

[stevco123]

A surprising 9mm this morning between 3am and 8am. Seems we were caught in a train of showers as other areas only had 0-2mm

[Petros]

8mm for this event here. All erased by 2 days of very strong SW'ly wind. Looks like 2 weeks off here rainwise, but it wont by summer heat either from what I can see coming.

[hillybilly]

Nice showery Thursday here with a further 4mm. Cleared today to a nice sunny afternoon. Ducks are happy with the dams jumping a couple of inches and the grass getting a green flush.

Not a lot in the progs. Mild weekend, short warm spell (possibly rather too hot in the Mallee) then a cooler run down to the long weekend. Guess all weather eyes on possible record heat in WA and inland South Australia, and an increasingly likely TC impact in Queensland.

[WeatherViewer]

Hey gang,

Just a curious question about Summer this year here in Melbourne specifically.

I've been watching the charts this summer and anytime there is significant heat incoming and getting close to Melbourne, it seems to dissipate and head back North on the next ACCESS chart run for example.

I'm not asking for scorching heat, but years gone that heat would certainly push through and make it here, followed later with a cool southerly change.

It just doesn't seem to penetrate this far south this year. Are there any explanations?

[snowfall]

Hey gang,

Just a curious question about Summer this year here in Melbourne specifically.

I've been watching the charts this summer and anytime there is significant heat incoming and getting close to Melbourne, it seems to dissipate and head back North on the next ACCESS chart run for example.

I'm not asking for scorching heat, but years gone that heat would certainly push through and make it here, followed later with a cool southerly change.

It just doesn't seem to penetrate this far south this year. Are there any explanations?

It's been something of a pattern for the last few summers. I'd have to check but I think it has been a few years since Melbourne last had a 40+ day, certainly rarer at least. Heatwaves seem to have been less frequent too since 2020.

I'm not sure of all the possible factors, but we've been in a positive SAM this summer, with high pressure systems and cold fronts further south than usual. When they are further north, these tend to pull hot air down over Vic and Tas before cutting it off with a cool change a few days later, sometimes resulting in heatwaves. Might be that models are sometimes reflecting more normal conditions at first before adjusting to the current set up a few runs later.

Seems that in the past few years at least, our summers have tended more towards positive SAM, partly because this is more common during La Ninas, but even this year it has happened due to a strong polar vortex over Antartica which has pulled the belt of fronts further south.

The positive SAM has actually weakened a bit recently and models are suggesting it may switch slightly negative for a time as we head into Feb, so will see how things evolve during Feb.

Personally, I think a positive SAM summer is great. Easterlies, troughs, humidity, etc., all much better for storms, rainfall, and reducing bushfires. So far, this summer has been perfect, the best in a long time. A good amount of rain to maintain a green landscape and still enough warm and sunny days to feel like summer without those scorching northerly gales.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Started counting the No sun days in weeks….

[hillybilly]

Struggling a bit to find the new thread. Warm, some showers, then cooler…. that’s about it Record heat for northwest WA, near record heat for central, a major TC crossing near Townsville follow by the system running down parallel to the coast but inland so a lot of weather, but the southeast is largely on the margins. Is going to be a remarkable ten days for Australia but less so for us.

Btw on the flattening of systems, I think this is just luck. The temps are sat almost exactly on average for Melbourne and running a degree or so above here for summer, so not cool summer, but few extremes. For waterever reason the heats largely been stuck in WA and we’ve been dominated by troughs. Sometimes there is a clear cause and effect but sometime it is just random. Perhaps the clearest feature is the dominant positive SAM which favours easterly flow, so muggy and warm, but even positive SAM summers typically get a few spike days. I would watch for about a week from now as the next block could be in the Tasman sea in which case VIC will get hot.

[Pengaz]

Returned from 10 nights down at Phillip Island to find 15.5mm here, most of it presumably from Wednesday’s rain and Thursday’s follow up showers. The Jan total keeps ticking over.

Perfect beach weather for the first week with mostly light easterly winds and plenty of sun. The change to westerly flow felt like the first proper cool flush in a while. Was pretty wild out on the cowes pier on Thursday. This upcoming drier period will be good for the veggie garden.

[James]

well the lack of hours of sunlight is impacting the tomato and other crops i am growing this year, just not enough sun for flowering and too damp things are rotting, it should be very hot and dry by now which is that brings out the summer crops. As I say if we ever had to rely on local produce in the future we'd all die because the seasons are no longer reliable - you just cant count on summer to have enough sunlight here anymore so it seems!

[stevco123]

I've had the best tomatoes in years. Perfect weather. Just enough sun and plenty of watering. Poor soil with bad drainage is what makes them rot, and having them in a shady area.
February to be a bit more warmer and drier than the last few months followed by a cool and wet March, which will mark the beginning of a wet 2024, and another La Nina by years' end

[James]

You must have more sun there away from the hills then, good for you, not so here in Boronia, today its drizzle and dark all day....

[stevco123]

You must have more sun there away from the hills then, good for you, not so here in Boronia, today its drizzle and dark all day....

Definitely no more sunny days than you, but my garden is in the open and the soil has great drainage which doesn't allow for rotten roots

[Australis(Shell3155)]

I’m with you James.
Another day…. No Blue skies, no sun to be seen here.. “Again”
The usual seems to be about 4pm the scud moves small amount of blue then back to clouded over,
Rarely see many stars either…

.

[QldTwister]

Yeah its being a summer full of cloudly cool days out eash and drizzle which sucks days of cloud, little sun, while just north city and inland lots warm to hot and sunny days

Tues Wed look good then cool to cold again ergh
Hopefully Feb long and hot