VIC Trough, Heat, Showers, Thunderstorms, etc Feb 15-22 2012

[93ben]

Anyone watching the radar? In the last hour or two the rain has appeared everywhere. Nothing ground level here, might all be virga. Looked odd to see the whole 128k go white tho, bit of blue in it now, will see if it gets damp.

Yeah the whiteness does seem a bit odd. Is there a glitch or is this real?

[AUS_Twisted]

It's interference the radar picks up at night when there's some moisture around, DP's have been going up a bit since dark

[Alexia]

Another day yesterday storms all around could see the rain but not a drop for us.Have heard isolated little areas getting 40/70 mls rain in these thunderstorms.
We have had 7.5mm rain last 7 days.Hoping for a little better next few days.Thunderstorms started a fire on Mt Mittamatite last night near the fire lookout.
It did burn for some time but would take a while to get water there.On DSE site wild fire 0.30 Ha controlled.

[Instability]

I'm liking the latest run of GFS for this afternoon - might actually get some wet stuff if we are lucky

I have recorded just 5mm so far for Feb and only 22mm in the last month. Seeing I picked up 185.5mm in Feb last year this is proving to be quite a dry one and a return to pre 2010 conditions.

Rog.

[nafets]

Today looks pretty good for storms, and going by bsch.com the bullseye is around east central. Keeping in mind that when there is a LI of -4 or more, severe storms are possible/ more likely.

[Meso]

Yep, could be some decent storms around this arvo once it clears out. Hopefully something after work hours to get the camera out for, but it's always a stretch for everything to fall in place. Sunday looking increasingly like it could be a good chase day, tho. Fingers crossed.

[greensyboy]

Hi All,

Been a while, hope you're all having a cracker start to the year!
Looking at today I'm wondering if someone with a little insight could give a bit of analysis on what's happening with the Wind Shear today?
I've started to learn about shear at different levels, trying to add it to my repertoire of forecasting but wouldn't mind some insight from those that know what they're talking about!
In regards to Melbourne Metro are, surface levels show both Convergence and Confluence occurring at the surface and 950 levels. With Diffluence and Divergence occurring at the 700 level (5pm). 500 and 300 seem average at least to my eyes. I will be interested to see the Skew-T when it comes out also, see the direction of the wind barbs.
One other thing, I've heard of "Steering Winds" for Cyclones, I'm guessing the same is true for thunderstorms? Looking at the wind directions at each level I can see that they are travelling in different direction at different heights - is there a specific level which tends to "steer" the storm? How is that generally worked out?

My thoughts at the minute that shear is going to increase potential for severe storms (specifically what looks to be the middle of Melbourne Metro at least at least from 2pm - 5pm) does that sound on the money or am I way off?

For reference sake:
http://www.downunderchase.com/storminfo ... ide11.html


Appreciate your thoughts,

Cheers,


Nate

[Supercellimpact]

The higher the Shear usually means potential for storm organisation and stronger storms if the instabilty is there also. But with slack shear you get slow pulsy storms that can dump heavy rainfall for a long period of time.

[Meso]

I believe the 300mb (upper level) winds are what you need to look at to get an idea as to steering direction, greeny.

[aussiestormfreak]

Looks like the southwest change is coming through the Melbourne area atm, judging by the observations (temperature and wind direction) on the radar. Maybe this'll affect afternoon surface heating and kill off instability, reducing the potential for shower and thunderstorm activity? Anyones thoughts on this?

[Stone Free]

Not sure, but looking at the doppler it looks as if it's a sea breeze rather than a wholesale SW wind change. The humidity is awful, all this stickiness with no reward.

[AUS_Twisted]

Bit of a battle between the southerly and northerly going on, my place has a light southerly so hoping the northerly can push down a bit further (don't like my chances from whats going on out west) best area for storm development will be where the north and southerly meet like the last event.

Update: About a 5 - 6C difference from my place to Moorabbin near the bay

[Rhino]

Just getting a couple of rumbles here now so things might be starting to fire hopefully.

Rhino.

[johnno]

Yes there is abit of a battle winds have gone back round to the North at Essendon Airport 8ks North of me but Southerlies are picking up at the bottom of the bay.

Interesting to see GFS, UK and EC all give us abit of a drink and perhaps some thundery action through Central Vic (anywhere East of Geelong) Through Eastern Vic later on Today and into overnight. Storms will continue through eastern Vic over the coming days especially the ranges out that way.

[AUS_Twisted]

Things have really exploded north of the border, some action going now like Rhino said to the NW

Edit: Black core already! sure didn't take long

[Mikew]

Major development NW of Mel
Could get quite severe...Lets hope so..bring it on !

[johnno]

Storms brewing in Western areas of the North Central District as we speak and heading SE so Melbourne may be in with a shot this afternoon so GFS, UK and EC may be right

[AUS_Twisted]

Temp is slowly dropping here as southerly getting stronger

[aussiestormfreak]

Looks like a squall line may be trying to form from those cells out to the northwest, definitely a possibility of thunder, lightning, heavy rain, wind, and perhaps hail in the Melbourne area over the next few hours, so this is just the beginning

[Meso]

Gee, look at the radar now. What I wouldn't give to be up in southern NSW right now