Warm then a change*2 Oct 15 - Oct 20

[daviescr]

Thanks HB, yes and a shocking day for allergies too - pretty much sneezed my way down eastlink this morning.

[Jake Smethurst]

Definitely warm out there. Temperature at home before I left for the train was at 24 degrees a whole 2 degrees warmer than the official BoM temperature. Currently on the train to Melbourne and the skyline looks weakly unstable but nothing will come out of it I don't think, virga if anything. There is a weak westerly change moving along the west coast but as I said this wont amount to anything.

Warm one tomorrow again ahead of a stronger cold front that will move into the west during the afternoon and central parts later in the day. Models are being steady with with this one, showing probably a band of rain to develop just ahead of it but the further north you are the patcher it will be. Just some light isolated showers to follow near the coast and much cooler conditions for southern regions at least behind this system.

Expecting generally fine weather on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday at this stage with temperatures warming back up. Some models are indicating quite hot conditions towards the latter part of their model runs, but its a bit choppy so that's all I will mention. Otherwise a trough over New South Wales may result in increased cloud along the northern border region with the slightest of all potentials of a bit of convection during the afternoon hours.

[93ben]

May be overcast today though the temperature is rising now! Curently 21.6o

[johnno]

Preety boring weather at the moment not much to say. Should really be one of the most active times of the Year (La nina or not) but feels like 2006 to 2008 all over again not suprising though with a Positive IOD in operation. I expect dribs and drabs over the next week or 2 between fine spells nothing really to get excited about except for near heat records over Central and NW OZ for this time of the Year over the next week or so cos of the lack of cloud which has generally been like this past few months that way, the heat has accumalated.

Bit of a Southerly change Tonight and few patches of rain Tomorrow which may add up to 1-2mm with the odd spot of 5mm or so is the only excitement I can see in the short term.

[Lily]

Check out the gorgeous sunset, lovely people - NOW!

[Onetahuti]

I just have.

[Rhys_34]

I have a funny feeling that somewhere in Australia will see 50C this summer...

[dry]

I have a funny feeling that somewhere in Australia will see 50C this summer...

The confirmed/valid record is 50.7 at Oondnadatta - wonder if that might be broken.

[Rhys_34]

So hard to get there but the way this early season heat is building in northern Australia and the lack of any substantial rainfall forecast for this summer I feel like it could be as good a year as any to crack it!

[johnno]

Well SW/S change in already temps in the mid to high teens I don't think this was forecasted. I can't see much heating Today. May get a few mid level showers but that be it Still sticking to 1-2mm around here mabye 5-10mm your way David and the Yarra Valley.

[johnno]

Going to struggle to get to 21c.

[Instability]

Was one of the most extensive "mackerel skies" I think I have ever seen this morning on the way to work. But it was sitting under a rather opaque altostratus layer, so not very photogenic unfortunately....

Rog.

[Rhino]

Just had a bit of lightning and thunder here so my first storm of the season, won't amount to much, might get 1-2mm but planted 16 natives this morning so anything will be good for them.

Rhino.

[Twiggy]

This whole weather thing this week is starting to get on my nerves ;P We have finished shearing over 1 side of the farm and it is light rain here atm. We have all the sheep for today in the shed. Tomorrow we will be on the other side and struggling to figure out weather it would be worth it? Weather wise this is one of the biggest worries for us at this time of the year! Any ideas guys?? Tomorrow?? (My husband is on my back to find out) ;P I turn to you as You are all so much more onto it than BOM etc!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Noted the skies yesterday Lily, Lovely sunrise and set.
Also noted some mammatus in FTG around 11am.
Mowed under the sunset last night only time I really say I like DLS.

[johnno]

I think you may be onto something there David, Lower level moisture has come in now sky has filled up good indication that we should see some decent showers and even odd rumble as it gets closer to Melbourne. This morning must of been the pre trough that got washed away and now the actually cold front hooking into some moisture is moving through the Western District. Both latest ACCESS and UK have 5mm+ later this afternoon GFS closer to 10mm or more so be interesting how this pans out. Gone from SW winds to SE winds then Variable and now into strong NW winds in the past Hour.

[93ben]

Yeah the BOM mention that yesterday would be windy, it wasn't. They mentioned rain today there wasn't and now the wind has only started to pick up here! Though I think there is some rain event coming after this. Not really sure about storms though as it hasn't been hot enough for them.

[nafets]

Personally by the radar i'd say Melbourne should pick up 1-3mm.

[Geoff]

Hmm, this looks interesting now. A fair bit of enhancement going on with the cells passing over the bay, and don't forget it's the middle of October, so convection is getting stronger now. I reckon some of these cells could be big dumpers on the east side of the bay, though they are moving fast, so totals may not be huge. We'll know soon enough.
(Edit - CBD getting hammered now 6.25pm)

[occluded]

Woohoo, heavy rain. Been ages!

Edit: and wind squalls too - checked the radar and a red core over us. Cool