First N/W Cloudband, Statewide Rain and Cool Start to Easter

[Macedonian]

cold up here today, struggled up to 10C earlier, 7.6C now

[droughtbreaker]

Absolutely freezing here, barely got over 12C for a maximum, also some spitting rain as I was driving home from the station. I assume the SE winds and high moisture levels contributed to a local area of very heavy low cloud that must have persisted for most of the day over the west central ranges to get max temps so low compared to locations such as Ballarat and KIlmore. People getting around in coats, scarves and beanies here it's more like June than April.

On the surface it appears as if this is all going to change with an extended warm and settled period ahead, however some bizarre things going on with the models. GFS has significant instability on the weekend and beyond, almost looks like it's picking up some sort of upper level disturbance or something. EC and the consensus forecast not wanting a bar of it. Very odd considering we are only talking a few days ahead. Either GFS is on the blink or there could be some people caught out this weekend.

IMO, things are in a general pattern of 'destabilisation' especially in the upper levels. Ocean temperatures are rapidly cooling, bay temp down to 19.5C now and coastal waters around 18C. I would not be in the least bit surprised if we saw some sudden development of cut off lows and or ECLs. Models have been throwing such scenarios around in recent runs. A lot going on really despite the overall high domination at the surface. Interesting times ahead possibly.

[Karl Lijnders]

Should mean that we do not end up getting to those high 20s temps then

Lovely week of normal autumnal weather. I think we should certainly see convection and the odd storm across the ranges across the weekend but away from there, fine and dry with cool mornings.

Very cold this morning with it dropping to 3.7C here and 1C at Coldstream.

The frosts are not far away.

[Dane]

Coldest morning since 23 October last year here, it got down to 6.1c.
Beautiful Autumn day coming up though the first of a few.

[Macedonian]

it is superb up here, crystal clear and cold and sunny, our low was 5C exactly, much warmer than down on the flat. only 7C now

[droughtbreaker]

5.5C to 18C here today. It still felt rather cool in Melbourne today. 21C at this time of year does not have the same feel as 21C in summer, it feels much cooler with the weaker sun.

The upcoming 10 days are not looking as straight forward as it might appear on paper. There will be plenty of warm air and sunshine around but there could also be the odd shower or storm and even a rogue low or trough popping up. The general pattern will remain slow moving and disorganised for some time. What we have to watch for are upper level disturbances, cut off lows and fronts coming up from the south as cooler air finds it's way up from the westerly belt and the upper levels cool and destabilise. Definitely a seasonal transition happening atm.

Pretty typical autumn weather basically.

[Geoff]

Huge field of Alt-Cu going over at sunrise, are we sure there's no rain about later today? Sat loop shows a fair bit of cloud moving up from the south towards us, presumably innocuous stuff?
Chilly start again today 8c at 8am.

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks like storms now with a mix of smoke. Looks amazing! Got rays of sun coming out from behind it as well! Edit: Just saw an amazing lightning strike

[droughtbreaker]

14mm recorded near DIggers Rest. Moisture levels are very healthy, any showers/storms that are developing are leading to heavy rain. I assume the upper levels are driving the convection as there is little if anything on the surface, we are basically just under a big high ridge.

Tomorrow looking a bit more promising, especially on the central ranges. Given what's on the radar atm and with more instability showing on GFS for tomorrow there is no real reason to believe it will just be on the eastern ranges as BOM forecast suggests.

23C here today. Interesting to see temps in the high 20s to low 30s in the same places that took the brunt of the heat during the March heatwave, i.e. western district and south western quadrant of Melbourne. It tells us something about NE wind regimes, it seems to effect the south west perhaps because of the longer trajectory of the air mass over land.

[stratospear]

Dew points today were definitely on the high side for April. But this warm weather mightn't be around for much longer - EC is looking very interesting for this time next week.

[johnno]

Latest JAMSTEC for April run still predicting a Negative IOD for Winter and Spring

And here is what the BOM are saying...

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
The IOD index is currently neutral, with a value of 0.0°C for the week ending 14 April 2013. The IOD consensus outlook suggests neutral conditions may persist through to September. However, model outlooks increase the odds of a negative IOD event as time progresses, with 3 of the 5 models exceeding negative IOD thresholds by September.

The following graph shows the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.

[adon]

Geez john hope those forecasts are right, we have no moisture at all to work with ATM and the longer this goes on, the more we will need rain in the growing season.