11th June onwards - Cut off low

[Skywalker]

Thanks guys.

Funny, it's almost as though the weather knows I should be resting and doing it's best to make sure it happens.

[droughtbreaker]

34mm here for the past two days. After the sunny long weekend there have been three days of heavy overcast skies and barely a bright patch in the sky.

Nothing particularly noteworthy about this system for central but of course the big falls have hit the Otway ranges and South Gippsland ranges. The extended forecast and model runs barely showing a dry day in sight. There won't be big falls on any of the days but a few mm here or there on almost every day and I would expect more cloudy conditions for a lot of the time. Melbourne has only seen 31 hrs of sun for the month so far and two thirds of that total was over the long weekend.

124.5mm month to date here and 160mm since this time last month. It's been really wet, and ironically the contracted westerlies and positive SAM has been one of the major factors that have made all this rain possible. We are getting slammed with tropical origin cut off lows and troughs which are then meeting colder air down south.

[Dane]

Doing fairly well from this system i must say. 12.2mm's since 9am makes the system total 38.8mm's and the MTD is just over 100mm's. First time we have cracked over 100mm's since June last year.

[droughtbreaker]

Balook out east now up to 179mm and rain falling heavily. Nasty event - apparently there was a very similar event back in June 1978 when some spots saw over 250mm.

[snowshow]

According to our gauge 198mls at 1600 this evening and has been raining steadily since then

[Geoff]

That chart above really shows the rainshadow effect throughout the eastern suburbs and Yarra Valley from these S/E flows, almost an exact mirror image of a N/W flow where we also miss out. It's only really a S/W flow that gives us the majority of our rain.
Still, doing pretty well nonetheless, with +20mm so far and raining quite steadily now. I'm watching that bright blob of cloud on the sat pic coming up from the S/E across Bass Strait , radar just starting to pick up substantial echoes from the leading edge.

[droughtbreaker]

Also of interest in a historical context was June 1952.

Blackwarry, a locality east of Balook situated on the same ridgeline received 567.2mm in a 6 day period with heavy rain recorded each day. There were widespread 150mm+falls throughout Gippsland as well as some 150mm+ 3 day totals over west central VIC and most notably, Tanybryn on the Otways received 648mm during a 3 day period.

It looks like these sort of systems have a tendency of popping up at this time of year.

Radar looking interesting for tonight from a local perspective. There may be some more 10-20mm falls here.

[occluded]

Up to 13mm for this event so far, 7mm up to yesterday evening, and 6mm today so far in the manual gauge.

Was never going to be a big event here with the SE flow and the rainshadow, but Gippsland certainly copping a good caning, hopefully plenty falling in the water catchments too.

Also good to finally see some snow on the forecasts after the relatively mild temps of the previous event.

Wind seems to be veering to the SW last few hours too.

[Karl Lijnders]

Sitting on about 40mm for the event as well with just a tad over 27mm from last nights effort but a very very tight rainfall gradient. Seemed to be topographically enhanced with Wantirna picking up 15mm and lighter falls to Viewbank etc.

Not much happening at the moment but further showers likely to develop in the SE stream today. Tomorrow looks a little drier but then come next Monday/Tuesday we could see another 10-25mm over southern and mountain VIC.

Very good rain for the state, a bit too much out east but certainly the dams are going to be rising (against the ridiculous releases that the Melbourne Water Corporation have decided!).

[Thunderclap]

29 mm for the event so far with 14mm since 9am that brings our monthly total up to 74mm low of 10 and maximum in of 11.9 yesterday bitterly cold

[Alexia]

Another 6mm rain so total so far 16.5mm very happy with that happy to miss the heavy falls.

[Gordon]

Just a modest 36 mm for the event so far here - would have been bragging about that a month ago, but in this company I'm almost embarrassed to admit such a puny total!

Around 75 mm mtd so a healthy June nonetheless.

[johnno]

31mm here, 110mm for the month must be close to a record here for June

[Macedonian]

nothing much today, i dont think we need anymore at the mo. a lot colder up here this evening, 3.9C now compared to 5.8C this time yesterday. can really feel it.

[Geoff]

45mm here for this event so far takes me to 163mm MTD. That makes 268mm in the last 6 weeks! Things are decidedly boggy undefoot now!
Yes colder here this evening, 6.5c compared to 9.5c yesterday evening.

[Thunderclap]

Also notably colder here 8.8C now so colder air has pushed through, all the major ski resorts are also in the negatives now so happy times!

[droughtbreaker]

Another 6.8mm overnight, 41mm all up for this event and 131.3mm for the month so far.

We've actually had three months out of the six with above average rainfall so far this year. The flipside to that is that April and January were very dry here and May quite dry also. Highs are still way down south of where they should be sitting and very disordered pattern with floating upper cold pools across the southern inland. To be fair, June does tend to throw up these sort of patterns from time to time and we usually flick back to westerly domination and the highs weaker and lying over the subtropics once we hit July.

Still plenty of rain to come this month IMO, although the model forecasts do seem to be heavily favouring southern Victoria at this stage with precious little reaching the north.

[dry]

Some showers going through at the moment. I want some sunshine! I am over cloudy, overcast days - just sun so I can feel human again!

[Geoff]

Cool day today with sunny spells and just a light shower or two this afternoon. Showers increasing this evening from the S/E and this one at 9.15pm is quite heavy. Radar shows quite a few to follow and certainly lots moving up over S/E Tassie, so could go on overnight.

[Rivergirl]

Lovely and sunny up here in the hills today