Cooler with showers: March 21-24

[Rivergirl]

Thanks. Could do with some more rain

[johnno]

Friday looks Ok for another 2-5mm maybe more in eastern suburbs, looks to clear up Saturday then it gets complex Sunday onwards Access, Gfs and ec have 3 different scenarios which usually means fine weather for us

[Wilko]

I like it
GFS has low pressure developing over Victoria on Friday
Could be reasonable falls somewhere
Everyone needs the rain now
Heard rumours of a possible severe Elnino although a bit too early to tell at this stage
Leave that one for the climate experts on another thread

[Jake Smethurst]

I think it looks reasonable as well. Not for large falls but for smaller falls that could add up in some local areas if you're lucky. Friday's developing low is interesting and things could turn out better than what models indicate.

Also interesting to note is this morning's EC run ... has a low in the Tasman early next week retrograding back towards Victoria and Bass Strait. Not saying this will happen but hardly see that.

[Wilko]

I love those systems they retrograde
Very memorable when they happen
I remember one that started in Gippsland and ended up causing damage I think around Portland
Jake could u please send the EC link ad I don't think
I am using the correct one..thanks

[stratospear]

Latest EC and GFS are really ramping up the rainfall totals for the middle of next week. Looks like several days of tropical moisture pumping in from the North-east. We could cop bucket-loads or next-to-nothing....

[droughtbreaker]

Extremely interesting pattern involving tropical moisture and a very slow moving, almost stagnant pattern of upper troughs and low pressure. If the models hold then I see us receiving 1 week+ of widespread showery and stormy weather spreading to rain areas at times (from early next week), and then the possibility of something bigger before we break properly into cool Autumn weather.

This looks to be a very broad scale pattern, so without wanting to mozz it, I would imagine the odds of it falling apart as we get closer to be much lower than narrower scale scenarios like single cold fronts wedged between highs.

Who knows though, in light of recent model performance it could all be a big lie.....

Models also starting to show below average temps for both max and min. We should see a mixture of sun and cloud allowing rain, sun and clear mornings to co-mingle throughout the period rather than wall to wall cloud.

Cool uppers also tend to correlate with cool temps at the surface.

[Jake Smethurst]

I love those systems they retrograde
Very memorable when they happen
I remember one that started in Gippsland and ended up causing damage I think around Portland
Jake could u please send the EC link ad I don't think
I am using the correct one..thanks

Hi Wilko ... tonights update has got rid of what I mentioned, but if you go to this link, it should show you: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4031812!!/.

Otherwise speaking about this Friday's system, still looking like scattered showers or even patchy rain as the BoM says.

Droughtbreaker sums up next week well! Most models indicating moisture and a developing broad area of low pressure which means showers, storms and rain! One to watch and potentially a new thread for discussion there.

[Geoff]

A few convective cells forming ahead of the main front, a small black cored storm just heading for Kilmore at 7.10am. The front itself seems to have stalled out west and is standing up a bit. Not sure what to make of today, will it die a death on our doorstep, or is a low centre forming on it and going to ramp up later today? My feeling is it will probably die and produce little, going by this year's record, but I hope I'm wrong. Another 10mm would be great.

[Didjman]

A few convective cells forming ahead of the main front, a small black cored storm just heading for Kilmore at 7.10am.

Was fairly lightning active as it passed here(got one reasonable pic). The interesting thing - as I reported to the BOM - is that the anvil cirrus shield is expanding north!! Surface wind moving south!

Could be interesting later!

Peter

[tonycynic]

Rain and plenty of thunder here, nice way to wake up.

[SC.]

Just heard some passing rumbles here...cats retreated inside.

[Wilko]

Lot of thunder to the east here in Moorabbin/Highett
Great cloud formation looks awesome

[Duckey]

Cracking thunderstorm here now in Burwood, and yes the cloud formations were spectacular looking east - radar looks cool long thin line of red shooting down south eastwards. Overall with the pace it's moving it would be lucky to drop 1mm in the gauge. If it clears up and we get some sunshine, may set up for some more interesting weather this afternoon

[Dane]

Line of storms to the east of now. A few cg's and some loud thunder. No rain here though and judging by the radar wont get any rain from those storms anyway.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Some great photos this morning,
That put an end to my garden maintenance,
Sure has stuffed up the golf game..
Bucketing in FTG, lightening is awesome. MIL. Is packing holding onto me.

[Skywalker]

Nice little surprise for you folk in the east this morning.

While back here in Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone the complete opposite is happening, nothing but Sunshine.
Not too confident of getting much today. Fingers crossed anyway.

[occluded]

Saw a cell go over home on the radar about an hour ago, PWS reported 1/2 a mm. Naturally I was at work so missed it completely.

I did cycle in to work though so it's bound to rain this afternoon on the way home

[Onetahuti]

Nice little surprise for you folk in the east this morning.

While back here in Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone the complete opposite is happening, nothing but Sunshine.
Not too confident of getting much today. Fingers crossed anyway.

Apart from some rumbles to my north and east, not a drop of rain fell, it has been mostly sunny. So something between frustration of just missing out boredom. Least put all the sun blinds up for the winter when it looked like it may rain.

[johnno]

Most of Melbourne and Central areas will be lucky to see enough rain to settle the dust today. Good day for the east and north east for storms and the south west will get half a decent drop from the rainband but another non event for central Vic.