Vic: Humid. Showers/rain/storms event March 24th to 28th

[johnno]

Looking reasonably good at this stage for some good rainfall in parts of Vic this coming week as a surface trough interacts with an upper trough/low. Moisture will be pumped into the system from Qld/Coral sea. Storms are also a chance if cloud cover does not become to heavier during the week. Models at this stage have the best falls (25mm+) extending from the northern Ctry to the Otways places like Bendigo, Ballarat, Maryborough, Daylesford, Macedon ranges and surrounds, Colac should do well this week. Rest of the state should see 10-30mm but if you get a storm it could be more. Fingers crossed. Thoughts?

[Australis(Shell3155)]

feeling the cold..

[Rivergirl]

Thanks johnno. Sounds good Yes you can feel the chill in the air at night and pretty cool weekend here in the hills. Max 15 each day.

[Rhino]

Posted this in the other thread models looking pretty good of getting something half decent, especially nth half of vic, although some do have it a more east event and others a western event with GFS latest run giving the NW a good soaking but only one run so will see but OCF been consistent that we will get 20mm+ around this area so would be happy with that. Just waiting for the inevitable forecast downgrade 20mm--15mm--5mm but does look a showery and humid week at least and possibly getting stormier as the week goes on as well.

Rhino.

[johnno]

40mm+ for you this week Rhino.. I would just about back it in for your area

[Rhino]

Now that's what I'm talkin about Johnno , BOM has rain periods and storms thurs now so looking ok and seems certainly more a central/eastern event and nth of the ranges for heavier falls but rainfall for the whole state and feel it will be an interesting week IMO, could hold a few surprises.

Rhino.

[Geoff]

Anywhere between 10mm and 30mm for the Dandenongs seems about right Johnno, we're not usually favoured in these set-ups, so thinking we'll be at the lower end of the scale unless we get under more storms like we have lately. Nevertheless, 10mm will keep the gradual greening of the landscape going, especially as it's definitely getting chillier as time goes by. It's getting harder to predict what's going to happen this year, things are definitely not turning out as expected so far. Wettest El-nino on record anyone?

[Australis(Shell3155)]

I'm liking what Im reading..
7.10pm sunday and its pretty blue black east toward the towers from down below.
most of my lawn jobs are up to date, (besides my own) so bring it on..
Ill mow any spare second I get between now and rain..

[adon]

Looks like the down grading for our area has begun. We were a chance of 40mm a couple of days ago, now we re maybe scoring 10. Oh well better than dust!

[stratospear]

Still not much convergence in each forecast model run. EC starting to stabilize a little (60mm for here would be sensational!), but GFS now throwing in a major downgrade - last 5 model runs had 30mm, 25mm, 20mm, 30mm, now 4mm

I think it will largely come down to the positioning and depth of the trough on Thursday - i.e too far East and we'll get nothing.

[johnno]

No chance.. The surface trough on most models has been expected to go back over the border into SA and the upper low west of Adelaide so can't see how we will miss out on upsliding north easterlies rain

[WeatherViewer]

Those rain bands in NSW seem to be heading this way? Tomorrows forecast 24c & mostly Sunny for Melbourne?
Are they going to slide east and completely miss central areas?

[stratospear]

Those rain bands in NSW seem to be heading this way? Tomorrows forecast 24c & mostly Sunny for Melbourne?
Are they going to slide east and completely miss central areas?

Parts of Sydney are certainly copping it today. i.e 57mm in Bankstownn since 12:30pm, a 40 kt Westerly gale at Sydney Airport

[Wilko]

Yes some of those rainfall rates this morning in Sydney were phenomenal
Looks like continuing all week
Hopefully some down here later in the week
Might need it as Weatherzone News has a recent item on the Elnino development (scary)

[Onetahuti]

Latest forecast from BOM looks very different to what we have seen for a time, now to see if it eventuates ~~


Thursday 27 March

Summary ... Min 19 Max 23
Rain at times.

Melbourne area

Cloudy. Areas of rain and the chance of thunderstorms. Winds east to northeasterly and light tending north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Friday 28 March

Summary ... Min 19 ... Max 23
Rain at times.

Melbourne area

Cloudy. Areas of rain, easing to isolated showers during the evening. The chance of thunderstorms clearing during the afternoon. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming westerly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon.

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[WeatherViewer]

I know you are all praying for a good drop from the upcoming system.
I'm heading to Cape Conran on Friday for two nights. Are we going to cope a soaking down that way? I really hope it doesn't bucket down for our sake, would ruin our plans.

[Geoff]

My feelings about these set-ups not favouring the Dandenongs is reflected in tonights models with EC downgrading to 13mm, and GFS down to 10mm for here. We are in a huge rainshadow from anything coming from the east or northeast here, so I'll be grateful for anything from this event really. Often find the CBD and western suburbs can benefit more and do quite well from a "bounce" effect with us getting very little here. Still, a developing situation, and really anything could happen, interesting times at last!

[Gordon]

Just tipped 0.5 mm out the gauge from a mixture of drizzly showers yesterday and short sharp ones this morning. Cautiously optimistic about the coming days, but if it all shifts east again, you'll hear my SCREAM in Melbourne!

[stratospear]

Monsoonal like cloud mass along the QLD-NSW coast today. It certainly made its mark on the Illawarra Escarpment - 297mm at one location (24 hrs to 9am).

Unfortunately it seems to be positioned a little too much to the East for my liking....

[norwester]

Firing up a bit to the east of me at the moment with some spectacular anvils, needs to creep about 20km closer though. A few rumbles but sometimes hard to distinguish from the metalic bang of the wine bins being unloaded. Hopefully a bit of rain this time!