Vic: Epic low pressure sequence over SE AUS - Sept 28 - Oct 4 2016

[StratoBendigo]

Rain totals today have been way way under the forecast amounts, for all areas of Vic in fact. Cold air can't hold much moisture, especially when it travels a long way overland before it gets here.

[Sean]

Rain totals today have been way way under the forecast amounts, for all areas of Vic in fact. Cold air can't hold much moisture, especially when it travels a long way overland before it gets here.

Yup. These southern systems have no stamina. There isn't enough energy. They live and die hard

[StratoBendigo]

Melbourne CBD on 1.8mm for the whole event. It's making an absolute mockery of every forecast model out there...

Sunday night still looks like packing a punch.

[hillybilly]

The models had an intense rain shadow so not surprised at the low total in the city. This is pretty classic for mature "winter" lows with the flow northerly. We've had nearly 8mm out here where we tend to get a less intense rainshadow, while to our north Kinglake through to Macedon has seen pretty general 20 to 40mm falls.

As the low gets closer and then shifts to our southeast things will become more favourable.

Currently watching some decent showers closing in. They look quite thundery.

[Tassiedave]

The trough drifted down from Victoria andstalled over Northern Tasmania today delivering good falls. It has now starting moving south, there is now clearance in the far North West. The rain will now ramp up in the East and South East. Rainfall so far includes Fisher River 82 mm, Mt Victoria 76 mm, Upper Blessington 56 mm, Sheffield 57 mm, Interlaken 54 mm, Fingal 46 mm, Mathinna 44 mm, Low Head 44 mm, Devonport 37 mm, Scottsdale 35 mm, Wynyard 32 mm, Launceston 25 mm, Deloraine 43 mm, Flinders Island Airport 22 mm. Hobart received only 0.2 mm.

[93ben]

A bit interested the next low. Looks set to deliver melbourne a drenching if it pulls off.

[Geoff]

Currently watching some decent showers closing in. They look quite thundery.

That was what I thought too, and then like Moses parting the Red Sea it split either side of us and we got nothing....

[AUSSKY]

Trentham has so far received 29.2mm since the even started with a couple of interesting graupel showers this morning and around 2pm. Pressure got down to 986.0hPa at 2.48pm and has dragged itself back to 986.9 at 7.10pm. Wind is still out of the NE

[Gordon]

Quite a showery afternoon here but nothing too dramatic fortunately. Even the 10-20 mm locally overnight was enough to send some local streams back to almost flood level.

I'm encouraged by the reduced totals in the latest BOM forecast for Ballarat, including for Sunday to Tuesday's system. (However I'd be delighted if that weird little dry patch that seems to surround Melbourne atm (particularly to the south-east) got the excess that few of the rest of us want )

[typhoon29]

bit of a mixed day of sun, wind and a few showers from time to time, ~12mm so far. These Cut offs always are unpredictable but SA and Adelaide area seem to be the target this year, they have had quite a few! Off to Tassie Tmoz weather is supposed to be ok~? We'll see!

[Macedonian]

Black out! Thank heaven for the firelight.
Its chucking down rain here and around 3.5C
We must be over 30mm now since last night.

[StratoBendigo]

Been raining fairly heavily on and off this evening. Now only 2mm away from breaking Sept 1916 record. Annual average rainfall already exceeded.

[JasmineStorm]

Good evening crew members, thought I'd just pop my head in again.

Outer spiral rain band now giving the Macedon ranges a good old fashioned dunking. Clocked up 7mm in the last 20 minutes. That makes 37mm now....207mm now for September, 1916 record of 203mm well and truely knocked on the head. Plenty more in it overnight as well. river level alarm bells starting to ring in the neighbourhood.

Isnt Robyn just something else.... I gaze at her every few hours thinking, are you beautiful, a monster or just a misunderstood cyclonic gyre that accidentally hit the light switch on SA. I just had a peek and shes amazing me again.... 3 eyes now, all under 5km/h within the walls, flanks ranging in the low 70's km/h on 2 of them and mid 60's km/h on the new eye. Goodness me, she is something else. I think she wants to hang around to see the Bulldogs. Anyway...enough of me banging on..... Melbourne probably yes, but I'm not sure Vic is out of the woods yet.

[Geoff]

Still in the massive rainshadow here, it all looks very impressive coming over the ranges to our north and then just disappears when it gets here.

[Didjman]

At least another 15mm (ongoing) here on top of the 25 overnite. Baro down to 989.1 and dropping.
Peter

[Timster]

Still on 988 here, and a few extra mm's of rain to the dam, generally just cold and damp.
Obviously potential in the next few days, will just have to see how it plays out.

Of to Vietnam on Monday, so will almost certainly some torrential rain the the next week or so

[JasmineStorm]

3 cored beast - SA and Adelaide just getting a thrashing

Original near Ararat at the min, clear on bom 256 Melb radar. 987 hPa and falling in Kyneton. It's currently trying to break down the shadow to get to Melbourne city.

[HarleyB]

10mm in the last hour here, and 12mm here since 9am, to go with the 27mm before 9am, taking us to 136mm for September, just incredible.

[93ben]

We need TNT to blow up the mountain range around Melbourne (didn't even realise we had a mountain range like that lol). Jane Bunn says it's in our way of these awesome severe storms.

[Macedonian]

36mm here since 9am yesterday. Nice heavy rain over the last two hours