G'day Mike,
As Jake mentions, there are a few theories going around. The OZ cyclone prediction text book is currently being rewritten by the BoM climate team. Unfavourable vertical wind shear has shredded every monsoon low and kept the first 2 cyclones to Category 1’s. The current cyclone TC Blanche has more favourable conditions but maybe short lived because it will be steered over land.
From what I have witnessed, the upper atmosphere westerly winds has been a season killer so far. There has been plenty of moisture and water temps have been good. Conditions are becoming more favourable though and this is what I currently see.
1. Upper winds off NE Australia have now turned more easterly of late.
2. Sea surface temps between the Solomon Islands and Australian mainland tropics are 0.5 to 2 degrees above average (28 to 30c).
3. The monsoon trough looks like strengthening next week with a new surge.
4. Convection activity is increasing with the new Monsoon surge.
I personally wouldn’t sail any further north than 25 degrees until after Easter
JS