VIC: Low Pressure System (10/2-12/2 2012)

[Harley34]

Just had a look at the latest 4 day synoptic run for Australia on the BOM. Looks like a low pressure system may develop in N.S.W on Wed/Thurs, and then gradually shift south with an associated trough to centre over Gippsland. Past Friday, my guess is the Low may cradle around the High that will be in the Bight, however only a guess. Humid and unstable Easterly winds looks to set-up across with state with some moderate winds. Rain totals look decent by I would not be able to give an exact number for areas of VIC and Metro Melbourne. Looks to be a wet finish to the week and perhaps a nice welcome rain event before summer ties up.

[johnno]

Nice going Harley was about to start this myself glad someone else got onto it before I did. Most models are onboard with this one UK, EC, JMA, GFS, CMC & NOGAPS, ACCESS also has the system but pushes it further North into NSW. Anyway looks like it will be a combination of a surface trough dipping down from NSW combined with colder uppers interms of an upper low or trough from the West interacting which may enable to deepen the surface trough or even develop a low over us or over Northern Victoria at this stage, What that means for the state is instability with showers/storms and possibily rain areas in parts the wettest areas at this stage seem to be Central and Eastern areas but storms are a chance just about anywhere at this stage... The main days seem to be late Thursday into Friday and possibily Saturday though wouldn't suprise me if isolated stuff (storms) hung around right into early mid next week.

[johnno]

Latest 00z UKMET

Thursday: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Friday: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Saturday: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sunday: http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[stratospear]

Still looks like an Eastern Vic event to me. Maybe 15mm in this neck of the woods. If the low dips further south it might create a wrap-around for South-west Vic.

Loving the colder-than-average temps all of this week and into the next.

[aussiestormfreak]

Really need more summer rain to make the place damp and green for a while (25-50mm or so would be nice for the Dandenong Ranges)... and I'm really hoping to see some fantastic summer thunderstorm action around the Melbourne area

Are we expecting just general heavy thundery rain, or is there a risk of some potentially severe thunderstorms and perhaps hail from this system?

[Rhino]

Well here we go again, this could be a decent system if at all comes together and a couple of different scenarios could develop re johnnos comments, but in all honesty really not looking forward seeing a system that could give a nice drop just flitter away into the distance again. Just talking my area here but the last couple of systems 4 days out have been giving at least 10-20mm and we get dribbles in the end.
Anyway more an eastern event, get a shower or two and possible storm elsewhere in the state, looks good around nth country fri for a storm, and might get 5mm here but should be nice falls out east but all in all not excited yet and still waiting for a tank filler system.

Rhino.

[crikey]

Yeah Rhino. I know what you mean. Have only had 16mm since xmas day here ( no rain as such for 42 days) and all we got the other day was like lots of others in the country parts.
Sand blasted with no water.
Well here's another system with great potential and yeah looks like the east and south get the most . But the wind pattern is promising
ACCESS indicating a closed low over VIC on Saturday when l looked tonight. So starting to get a little hopeful
Moisture coming in from the eastern and southern ocean

Here is a snap of the ACCESS wind streams for saturday when the closed low finally forms
Sorta woke me up to be very interested
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PS. mmmm sorry. missed drawing in a closed low over Indonesia.. on this chart

[Karl Lijnders]

Looking at a Central and Eastern areas event and possible flooding out across the east. Should do wonders for the dams and water catchments.

Not looking as stormy through C areas but should be a couple of days starting from around Thursday and continuing on through till Sunday before we go into drizzly/showery SE winds.

Out east there should be widespread 100mm falls.

[93ben]

It's looking like big storms are forecast between Late Thursday & Friday http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast? ... #stormcast" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Jake Smethurst]

Friday is the best day for thunderstorms at this stage in terms of coverage, with other days likely to see activity mostly confined to the eastern districts. Looks very likely that flooding will be an issue for the Northeast and East Gippsland districts particularly on Friday and Saturday with troughs interacting with each other and still the potential for a cutoff to form.

[crikey]

Jane Bunn.. WIN weather news, on the TV tonight suggesting storms for the east of the state Thursday and indicating for the Bendigo/ Ballarat and surrounding districts also suggesting 5mm for us and plus 30mm if under storm activity on Friday/Saturday, if l remembered correctly.
She emphasized stormy activity

She did also say that she expected to see
rain for all the state l think she said Friday/ Saturday ,
GEEZ. Looking good for rain in the east of the state according too the combined model outlook for the next 8 days

[Karl Lijnders]

Looks decent for fairly scattered storm activity the next two days across VIC - particularly northern and eastern areas of the state.

Then significant rainfall to build over eastern VIC as the weekend progresses with a low forming and then moving off the east coast plunging us back into high humidity with heavy rain in the east with scattered showers and one or two storms further west but essentially fine and humid on the western border.

100-200mm falls are possible over the next week out east.

[johnno]

EC sticking with good falls through Gippsland extending back to some Eastern suburbs.. It has 50-80mm through most of Gippsland and around 30mm in some Eastern suburbs then falls away a little towards the City with 20mm but rainfall picks up again to the Southern Slopes near Macedon nearing 40mm and good falls SW of Melbourne around Avalon/Geelong/Aireys Inlet of 30-60mm with the bay enhanced effect... NOGAPS & CMC also picking this up. GFS is off the boil at the moment not sure why. 3 day ACCESS looks good.

[Karl Lijnders]

Agree with you there John,

The western and northwest suburbs should do very well and those showery bands will tend thundery over the ranges to the north of Melbourne. Cannot see a lot of storm activity past about Friday but some reasonable rainfall looks good across C and E areas. I think some areas out east are looking at 100-200mm - particularly the ranges.

[Rhino]

General consensus going by OCF is that everywhere bar the far NW of the state should get something around the 5mm mark and ofcourse east vic and southern parts east of cape otway alot more. Might scratch 5-10mm here but depends alot on heavy shower and storm activity in my neck of the woods especially friday. EC and GFS giving bugger all here (5mm) but OCF at least has something more promising (10mm) so got to be thankful for small mercies if we get that LOL. Hope everyone gets at least something to water there gardens.

Rhino.

[aussiestormfreak]

General consensus going by OCF is that everywhere bar the far NW of the state should get something around the 5mm mark and ofcourse east vic and southern parts east of cape otway alot more. Might scratch 5-10mm here but depends alot on heavy shower and storm activity in my neck of the woods especially friday. EC and GFS giving bugger all here (5mm) but OCF at least has something more promising (10mm) so got to be thankful for small mercies if we get that LOL. Hope everyone gets at least something to water there gardens.

Rhino.

Hopefully we'll get a lot more than just a drink for the gardens, I'd really like to see more good inflows into Melbourne's water storages again, and for the bushfire threat in the Dandenong Ranges to be almost totally eliminated for the rest of the summer.

[Rhino]

Yeah aussie, you guys out east should do alright, might have to get on the light beer to water my garden up here though.

Rhino.

[aussiestormfreak]

Yeah aussie, you guys out east should do alright, might have to get on the light beer to water my garden up here though.

Rhino.

lol good one Rhino!

Yeah hopefully you'll also end up with some decent rainfall totals from this system, the front that swept through on Sunday seemed to have brought just enough rain to my area to settle the dust, hopefully by the time this event is over and done with the grass may start growing again... and I'm hoping to catch some great storms on camera as well

[Karl Lijnders]

Yeah GFS is being rather bullish but not overly consistent in rainfall and placement of the low elsewhere. I think a smudging of the heavy falls over a wider area is likely with 25-50mm in C areas, 50-100mm in W Gippsland and NE VIC and 100-200mm in E Gippsland. Should be some heavy storms about the place generating higher falls.

Looking conditionally unstable today with storms developing just inland of the coastal fringe. This will include Melbourne along the seabreeze front and the presence of a sharp upper trough moving in from W VIC.

[johnno]

I still think GFS is abit odd.. NOGAPS has 50mm+ falls near Geelong and SW & Outer Western suburbs of Melbourne with the SE airstream setup, CMC goes one better and decides to bring the wrap into Central areas giving widespread heavy rain right through South Central areas including Melbourne. JMA has general 20-30mm through Melbourne but not forgetting unlike CMC, GFS & NOGAPS and even EC it doesn't pick up on topography and bay/ocean streams that well.