High Temperatures, High Humidity and Storms 26 Feb - Mar 3

[stevco123]

I've been watching the upcoming weekend with interest for the past couple of days and was hoping a thread would be kicked off by now but nothing thus far. This weekend could be"the one".A couple of models are predicting significant heat. But not only that. They are also predicting decent amounts of rain in the vicinity of 30~50mm for Sunday for example. And now the bureaus weather forecast has set the possibility for this to be a fantastic event. Perhaps an expert opinion is needed on here, but looks very warn, very humid and very wet from Saturday onwards with temps in the mid 30s. In fact from what I can see from an amateurs eye is that some of the warmest air this summer is going to hang over us. It does depend on cloud cover however.

[johnno]

Yes will be the 2nd warmest airmass of the Summer (behind the New Years airmass) so it will feel very uncomfortable regardless if we see temps in the mid 30's down here or low 30's cos Dp's will be high. Cloud/rain/sunshine will determine how hot it will get but has the potential to see 35-37c if we see plenty of sunshine in the mornings... But if we see alot of rain temps will hover in the high 20's 30c mark

[crikey]

Livinias weather channel 9 weather news for Melbourne was talking up good rain for Melbourne next Sunday

Had a brief look at ACCESS simulation
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Indicating the warmer temps in the west of the state next weekend . temps around 34-35 deg C. Min temps of 26 deg c on Saturday and Sunday night at 11pm.( warm nights next weekend)

Relative humidity for the west of the state around 50 % on the weekend.. Before then quite dry
ACCESS doesn't show the trough coming through until after Sunday but is indicating some pre -trough rain on the Sunday?
The upper/mid and lower air are in opposing directions . So l assume that means lots of shear with good potential for storms
Just a little miffed about the humidity. ACCESS Rel humidity is moderate rather than very humid.
However Sunday night looking the best for 16-18 deg dew points
Some moist air from SA with dew points in the 18 deg + mark arriving from the west overnight.
Just looking at ACCESS simulation alone and such a long way out . The current scenario looks best for Sunday night and into Monday..

and Jane Bunn from WIN news weather is saying that it will be hot and dry until the weekend for us ,then we will be in for widespread rain on the weekend

[Jake Smethurst]

Certainly looks interesting and one to watch closely. Models are still largely varying on the important details, particularly on the timing of the trough moving across the state. Out of the two major models, GFS pushes the trough through western Victoria Monday morning, whereas ECMWF has it through western districts later Monday. Will play a key role in the rainfall amounts and how long this event occurs!! Looks interesting though! And looks warm and humid nonetheless!!

[stratospear]

This morning's EC run has the rain starting Sunday afternoon and continuing until Tuesday morning. Rain totals still around 40mm for Bendigo, 20mm for Melbourne CBD. Looks like Monday will be very humid.

[Didjman]

On Sat loop, big Low in the Southern Ocean well sth of Perth. The associated front could wind up in this direction in a few days. Still very humid here with southerly breeze.
Peter

[Meso]

GFS saying it will be stable over the weekend in the latest run. I knew the idea of whole weekend of severe storm action was too good to be true.

[johnno]

Relax Meso thats 1 model, EC hasn't budged in Tonights run and will bring in rain and unsettled weather from the North on Saturday and extending through to the East on Sunday ahead of the front on Monday which will bring more storms and rain after a brief fine spell late Sunday or Sunday night. EC in general has a wet week next week with further cloudbands coming in from the NW.. Its only 1 run and good chance it will change but GFS has also hinted at this in previous runs. I have also seen other models push up a cold outbreak later next week so something is brrewing from the SW we will either see showery cold SW winds or a deep trough and upper trough lingering over Southern Australia... I can't see it being fine from Wednesday onwards next week.

[Meso]

Unfortunately its the model that does best with storms. If I see that it has no instability progged I get a little downhearted. I don't often see it jump off these scenarios, then back on, either. But, you never know. Will obviously have a better idea in the next few days.

[Jake Smethurst]

Still looking interesting with the majority of models showing some good rainfall for Victoria starting late Saturday extending from the northwest. Initially likely as showers and thunderstorm activity ahead of the trough on Monday. They will then tend to rain areas with the trough and just ahead of it as it moves through. Keeping an eye on model prognostics.

[droughtbreaker]

The models are so unreliable that's the problem. They obviously were on the wrong path yesterday with the location and extent of moisture incursion from the Coral Sea. It looks like passing through eastern VIC again, my gut feeling is tending strongly towards areas well east of Melbourne getting the bulk of it in line with the patterns we have seen for most of this summer. The main chance for the rest of us is still on Monday as the trough comes through but even this is showing signs of favouring the east of the state.

Having said this, EC is still pretty keen on central areas doing well from Sunday on and OCF has Saturday to Tuesday quite wet for central so perhaps GFS is having trouble. Some people reckon GFS has been the most reliable model in recent months but it seems to be the outlier with regards to this system.

It's frustrating, but it actually looks like Monday won't be the end of it with the models wanting to give us a major system of some sort eventually but the progs just keep pushing it back continuously.

[Meso]

I remember a few years ago the east of the state would miss out with just about every system, whilst the north and central areas would cop the peak of it. This year has been the complete opposite...and very frustrating when you don't live over that way! But, I guess that's just the way it goes, we will get our turn eventually. Got so used to the days of a nice line of storms moving across the state from the W that this year has been a bit hard to stomach.

[Rhino]

If we're looking up until monday then I'd have to say that I can' t honestly see alot happening apart from some showers and patchy rain. Something ai'nt right regarding storms over the weekend that BOM are forecasting and GFS stormcast really are'nt having a bar of, although that may well change in coming runs so lets see on that. Monday seems like the most likely time for decent falls (10-20mm generally at this stage) then after that we start a new thread .I'd think 5mm-10mm overall for sat-sun for most but really depends how convective this system becomes and if storms do eventuate. 10-30mm for the whole period for most with the east getting double that but really at this stage, still 4 days till sat, it's like throwing darts at the moment.

Rhino.

[johnno]

No I'm with you on this one Andrew, Yes I think GFS has been the best performed model in recent months but it is the outliner with this system on the weekend so I'm tending to think EC is right with this one but we will have more of an idea next 48 hours

[Gordon]

After a good couple of years GFS has been terrible for my little area all summer, continually forecasting rain a little further west than it actually falls - of course I'm generalising, but it tends to put the 'line' diagonally over Ballarat and down through northern Melbourne, when the decent rain actually starts a hundred or so km east.(I guess in that sense it's picked eastern Victoria pretty well though!)

Amazing to think I watched it with great interest for my local weather so long, now I only look with idle curiosity.

[droughtbreaker]

I think the main issue we are facing (at least for central areas) is whether that Coral sea moisture actually gets forced over us or ends up dragging out towards the Tasman. There is no question about the moisture that comes in with the passage of the trough on Monday but there is often a tendency in summer for these troughs to mainly affect areas further east unless there is some sort of low associated with it.

I am starting to think that central areas will see 5-15mm on Monday and then some sort of a cut off low or LWT with westerlies will come through several days later interacting with more inland moisture and that will be the big statewide event.

There is a huge amount of moisture buildup over the continent atm and it will come down here in northerlies ahead of systems and won't clear out until we get some decent southerlies through. IMHO it is inevitable we will see a big widespread rain event within the next 2 weeks, i.e. it's a matter of when and not if. The question though is will it be this weekend and Monday as well as later next week or will it just be the latter.

[93ben]

Even though they have models out there, the weather is unpredictable. One day there was nothing showing up on the radar around my area and all of a sudden there was thunder, lightning and heavy rain. It was like a ghost cell. As much as people try to predict the weather, you just can't and unfortunately that's the way of mother nature. All we can do is just wait and hope that we all get something decent.

[johnno]

Well EC this morning as been the theme all Summer falling inline with GFS a drier and sunnier and hotter weekend ahead of a change Monday with a band of rain or storms

[Jake Smethurst]

Yeah as John says, EC doing a complete backflip on it's original model predictions, now more in line with the GFS, although timing of the wind change is still an outlier. Some have it late Sunday in the west, others Monday afternoon in the west.

[Karl Lijnders]

Looking mighty unstable across the weekend and into early next week. I wouldn't rule out scattered showers and thunderstorms still developing on Saturday in the north, statewide Sunday and then a monster rain event Monday/Tuesday with a return to riverine flooding.

Ahead of that I would anticpate some of the strongest storms of the season to develop, with rainfall and damaging winds being more likely than hail. DPs being into the low 20s across the state, it will feel like NT than VIC. So get the AC going this weekend.

Melbourne has a chance of picking up 50-100mm on the change alone next week so a good drop to take us out of this summer.