QLD - Tropical Cyclone Oswald - 21st Jan to ??? Jan 2013

[Thunder]

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0629 UTC 21/01/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Oswald
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 141.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east northeast [075 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1800: 14.5S 142.1E: 040 [070]: 030 [055]: 993
+24: 22/0600: 13.9S 143.1E: 065 [120]: 020 [035]: 998
+36: 22/1800: 14.5S 144.1E: 085 [155]: 020 [035]: 997
+48: 23/0600: 15.5S 144.1E: 105 [190]: 020 [035]: 997
+60: 23/1800: 16.6S 143.6E: 120 [225]: 020 [035]: 997
+72: 24/0600: 17.4S 143.1E: 140 [265]: 020 [035]: 997
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.7 degree wrap on a log 10
spiral. DT is 3.0. MET not used as the system was over land 24 hours ago. FT
based on DT.

Northeast movement is expected to continue until landfall. Some numerical
guidance indicates more NNE'ly movement after 6 hours, but will assume this
occurs after landfall at this stage.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.



I will leave out my opinions on cyclone naming....

[I_Love_Storms]

Surprising as to the extent of the rainfall forecast associated with this system. GFS has gone beserk for Rockhampton area. Would be very worrying if it is right.

[Thunder]

LOL, yeah he wasn't a cyclone for long but as an embedded rain depression in the MT, he is welcome to most around NQ! Of course I'd like a lightning show anyday as opposed to a rain event!

[Lily]

Well, we're here on holidays on the Gold Coast, proving to be "interesting" with ex TC' heading our way looking to unload his burden and possibly throw in a tornado for good measure! Here's part of the SWW issued for our location:

These conditions are expected to contract southwards into the Southeast Coast district and also extend west to the Great Dividing Range during Sunday. In this area, destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 km/h and tornadoes could cause significant damage or destruction to homes and property in localised areas.
Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is expected over the Wide Bay and Burnett district and Southeast Coast district, extending west to include the Great Dividing Range and the Granite Belt. Six hour rainfall accumulations in excess of 100mm are likely. This could lead to rapid river and stream rises. Widespread 24 hour rainfall accumulations in excess of 250mm are likely.
Currently, the heaviest rain is located on radar over the southern Capricornia district and through the Wide Bay and Burnett district. Some areas through the southern Capricornia have now recorded over 1000mm over the past 48 hours. Since 9am today, Walla has recorded 169mm, Bundaberg 139mm and Bungadoo 139mm.
Water levels on the morning high tides are likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about coastal and island locations from Burnett Heads to the New South Wales border during Sunday and Monday. The sea level is likely to rise above the normal tide and the exposed beaches will experience damaging waves and flooding of some low lying areas close to the shoreline.
Dangerous surf conditions, with significant beach erosion, are expected along the coast from Burnett Heads to the New South Wales border, particularly during Sunday and Monday. This includes Hervey Bay and northern parts of Moreton Bay.
Flood Warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts, see http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.
A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for the Capricornia and Central Highlands and Coalfields districts.

[Rivergirl]

Stay safe Lily. Not a great place to be atm on holidays. I remember last year when we chose between Broome and Cairns for a holiday to get some sun. Luckily for us we chose Broome as Cairns had dreadful weather with heavy rain when our holiday came around. Hope it clears up soon

[Meso]

I have family staying up here with us atm. Barely rained all summer, now we have this. Not really the best weather for showing them the sights.

Anyway, nothing too extreme here yet, just rained on n off all day, but haven't even cracked 20mm. Tomorrow could get interesting tho.

[Lily]

Thanks Robyn <3. Meso much the same here, it's muggy, rainy and the shops are crazy because the tourists are bored! Woken this morning to stronger gusts, continuing steady moderate rain. Seas are wild though, I estimate about 3-4 meters? High tide currently and can see why there's warnings for beach erosion and damage.

Now here's a question: I don't want to sound panicky but we have little to no food here, I've been wondering whether to shoot out and buy a few things before it hits later today?

[Lily]

Don't know if this link will work, but I've been following these guys, South Brisbane Storms

http://m.facebook.com/SevereWeatherAust ... 2&refid=17" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Rivergirl]

Lily I would go and buy some food and water just to be on the safe side. You just never know. I follow South Brisbane Storms on facebook. I'm no weather expert so maybe one of the weather guys here can answer your question. Guys, anyone!

I forgot you moved to Qld Meso. Hope you're enjoying it up there when you haven't got this type of weather

[Meso]

Yeah, lovin it up here, Robyn! Dunno if I'll ever be back haha.

Just cracked 90mm here for the day, added to the 84mm we've had over the previous two days gives us 174mm for the event. Easily the most rain I've ever seen live.

[Lily]

Meso, are you yelling at the tv like I am every time they say "mini" tornado? My family's laughing at me!

Feeling for those in Lockyer Valley, especially Grantham. This must be bringing back dreadful memories

Looks like its moving s bit quicker than predicted, could be over sooner than expected?

[Meso]

Yeah, the rain seems to be easing, but wind is as strong as its been all day here - gusting up around 90-100km/h.

And yes, the m word has been driving me nuts. You'd think this whole thing would prove to people that there is nothing 'mini' about even a low end tornado. I could go on with a long rant, but its all been said before.

[Rivergirl]

Yes I was laughing about that today too Lily. It looks terrible up there and I did see the Lockyer Valley having flooding problems again. Meso I can imagine you never saw rainfall like that when you lived out west here, Bendigo I think

[Meso]

Over 130mm here now since 9am and still hosing down and blowing a gale. Well over 200mm for the whole event.

[Lily]

Coolangatta records 118mm to 6am with gusts in the 70 odd km/hr range - feels much stronger! We've been battered all night. The beach which is normally a long expanse of sand is all but gone, huge muddy looking waves thrashing the shore relentlessly. 6m waves were recorded at Surfers yesterday. A few smaller trees and signposts down in our immediate area that I can see from our balcony. We fortunately still have power. Brisbane river going into flood again tonight and tomorrow night.

[Lily]

Oh lol no way! South Bris Storms have just said if we get some heating this afternoon the south east could get severe storms, according to GFS. Crazy stuff.

[Rivergirl]

I'm watching it all on the news now Lily. It's just terrible. They are saying the floods will be worse in the Lockyer than 2011. It must be terrible for you to be going through it and Meso too. All you need is severe storms now x

[Lily]

Ah it's not so bad for us here. We've had gusts in the vicinity of 80-90km/hr, up on the 14th floor it's pretty hairy! We can't get out of our building, police have it cordoned off as the Coolangatta Sands Hotel next to us has lost it's roof. SES is here trying to secure the roof sheets, poor backpackers who normally sleep on the balcony there are homeless! Lots of foam on what's left of the beach, silly people are trying to walk put there and getting blown over in the foam. Funny to watch, but really shouldn't be out in it. There's always a couple of turkeys :p

[Rivergirl]

I can imagine winds like that are pretty hairy. Yes I saw the foam on the news. It's unbelievable. Now the rain is going down the East Coast of Australia with many places already being affected. I hope you get to go out of your hotel soon. What a holiday!

[Meso]

Yeah, all good here too. Just heaps of rain and wind. Haven't lost power or anything, barely even a few puddles around now. Only concern is whether I'll be able to get to work in the morning, with some flooding reported around where I work.