The Australian Weather Forum

Hi everybody,

I've got my ENSO prediction video done for 2013 (or at least the first half of it)

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/enso.html

I'm calling an ENSO neutral first half of the year, with the possibility of neutral conditions persisting into the second half of the year as well (need to get past the NH Spring pedictability barrier of course)

Further updates will follow, especially is there's any significant developments through NH summer.

As ever, thanks for your support.

Thanks Gavin. All the best for 2013.

Thanks Rivergirl. Glad you enjoyed.

Latest JAMSTEC for April run still predicting a Negative IOD for Winter and Spring

And here is what the BOM are saying...

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
The IOD index is currently neutral, with a value of 0.0°C for the week ending 14 April 2013. The IOD consensus outlook suggests neutral conditions may persist through to September. However, model outlooks increase the odds of a negative IOD event as time progresses, with 3 of the 5 models exceeding negative IOD thresholds by September.

The following graph shows the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.

Thanks for the update Johnno - fingers crossed.

The latest from BOM - well picked Johnno. Previous fortnight 2 from 5 models predicted a negative IOD so the trend is good.

ENSO neutral; a negative IOD slightly favoured

Issued on Tuesday 7 May 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific has remained in a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state since mid 2012. All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently well within neutral values. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology favour an ENSO-neutral state persisting into the southern hemisphere winter.

Following record high ocean temperatures around Australia during the summer, oceans have remained warmer than average, with January to April 2013 the warmest such period on record. Warm ocean surface temperatures around the continent may enhance local rainfall under favourable conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is currently neutral. Model outlooks of the IOD are mixed, with three of the five models favouring the development of a negative IOD during the southern hemisphere winter-spring period. Overall, a negative IOD event is slightly favoured over neutral conditions. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall over southern Australia.

Thanks Gordon

Cheers Gordon, looking good

IOD looking even better - latest from BOM's ENSO wrap-up issued today:

'Model outlooks of the IOD are becoming more consistent, with four of the five models surveyed now favouring the development of a negative IOD during the southern winter-spring period. The fifth model is also suggesting values on the negative side of neutral. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-normal rainfall over southern Australia.'

The -ve IOD forecast is reflected in the BOM's latest Temperature and Rainfall outlook too with above average rain and below average daytime temps predicted for most of Central and Eastern inland Australia

The push towards a La Nina is starting to gain ground with the SOI continuing to move in the right direction, trade winds beginning to increase and SSTs really cooling across the E Pacific region. A moderate event looks on the cards with room for further strengthening in the event over the coming months.

Get ready to build an ark!