Victoria: Low pressure system. March 4th-10th 2010

[Karl Lijnders]

Welcome to you Sal!!

ILS I am currently in Lilydale @ AV's.

Current projections put LIs and CAPE values at similar levels to yesterday. The fact there is clear air all the way to these storms in N VIC means they will maintain integrity and potentially increase as they head SSE. I suspect the biggest storms could be in a channel from Echuca-Melbourne today.

[nafets]

Off topic a bit but have a look at Adelaide radar. Thats some impressive rotation, and nice storms on those bands.

Rhino.

Your right! I think is pulling in a drag if you look at the 512km, like the circular movement is catching on Victoria!!

[Karl Lijnders]

Myself and Anthony can see the tops of the storms over the range and they are huge. Expect the storms in the NW to become more widespread, the air aloft is probably a fraction colder than yesterday so there could be some problems re: hail.

28/17 in some of the suburbs puts us back to where we were yesterday.

I am tipping temps to nudge 30C ahead of the main rain and thunderstorms from the north.

[salsbells69]

Thankyou Karl!

[I_Love_Storms]

Another time bomb out there, probably bigger than yesterdays cloud permitting, although heating has already occurred.

[tizza]

Up to 25c here and still climbing slowly and steadily, sun has been out again for about 30 minutes and it's STEAMY. RH60%+, DP 17c and climbing too. I had some reservations about today (re more violent storms only, not the rain) but now the sky is clear and the hot sun is blazing I'm in two minds about the outcome. I don't want another hailstorm like yesterday at all. I didn't think it would clear like this, considering the conditions currently, cells could pop out of nowhere with this clear air. It's just like SE QLD. Be prepared. Yesterday was the biggest hailstorm I've ever seen in Melbourne, not the biggest storm by a long shot.

[droughtbreaker]

We've lost the clear slot now with more rapid development of middle level Ac/Cu. 8/8 now. Expect the storms and rain to come in late, originate from up north and the existing storms up there atm and tend to heavy thundery rain. Little chance IMO of more storms actually developing further south into central VIC, they'll have to move in as bands.

[I_Love_Storms]

I disagree Andrew. I think fair chance of them developing down here.

[Leasy]

Currently 26.5ºc with RH @ 54%. I'll tell ya what though - it's so oppressive out there - very humid and sticky! We are in a clear slot but might lose that soon as the high cloud to my SW is starting to stream over.

I don't remember it ever being this moist and humid here - you could smell the moisture in the air!

[I_Love_Storms]

Herald Sun update

UPDATE: A SUDDEN increase in temperature has boosted the chances of more storms in Melbourne today while a new band of wet weather is moving across Victoria’s northwest.

Weather bureau senior forecaster Richard Carlyon said thunderstorms were moving south across Kerang, Swan Hill and Echuca from NSW.

Melbourne’s temperature meanwhile, has shot up to 26C, which could see thunderstorms develop about 4pm.

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks to be some activity further south near Mt Mercer as well.

[Jake Smethurst]

Okay, I at least want a little storm, just something ... lol ... hopefully a cell thats popped up near Mt Mercer can move over my area or just to the north. Keeping an eye on that.

[nafets]

Okay, I at least want a little storm, just something ... lol ... hopefully a cell thats popped up near Mt Mercer can move over my area or just to the north. Keeping an eye on that.

Where's Simpson south near?

[Tornado]

Might be a silly question guys, but how do you post to this forum when you are out chasing?
Laptop? Phone?
And............ Can someone please explain the whole AM radio and lightning connection? Sounds interesting!
Cheers

[Jake Smethurst]

Nafets, if you look at the 512 km radar and find Port Campbell, I am north of there pretty much at the same level as Warrnambool. We can get some fantastic thunderstorms at times, just recently we are having dud year for storms.

[droughtbreaker]

Might be a silly question guys, but how do you post to this forum when you are out chasing?
Laptop? Phone?
And............ Can someone please explain the whole AM radio and lightning connection? Sounds interesting!
Cheers

You should be able to post from your phone, internet speed is usually alright just for sending text, loading small images etc. Iphone is much better if you have one. You can only post from your laptop in certain major towns and urban areas that have free wireless.

[Anthony Violi]

Starting to explode through the clear slot...i would think that a warning will be issued very shortly for Northern country and central as that mass of thunderstorms moves South...locally surface convection is exploding to the north and nw..

Yes leroy i post from my iphone more than my laptop...

[Tornado]

Thanks guys,
I have a Iphone, so it looks like I'm in luck!
Cheers

[Petros]

Just turn on a radio on the AM band, down the low frequency end (530) slightly off and active channels. Each his/splatt is lightning, the louder the closer, the more prolonged, the more intense the lightning.

Stopped raining here an hour ago, still calm and fully overcast. 15mm from the system so far since Friday.

[droughtbreaker]

Well, we are getting a fair bit of sun here again, as the middle level cloud has thinned out. Very little in the way of actual clear skies though the sun is shining through the thin cloud. Still enough to make it to 23C. Absolute zero low level convection here but I am in a low spot surrounded by hills, mountains and bushland so my view is very crap and I can't see anything that is happening more than about 10km past the other side of the range.