Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

[hillybilly]

Long warm to hot and unstable period. Models showing a series of weak troughs which never really budge the heat, with the South bouncing from warm to hot, and the North hot, hot and hot.

Bit unstable out there this morning with a couple of thundery showers. Best chance today is probably near the mid arvo wind change, but pretty sparse so hit and miss. Really need something up here now... Been a long dry spell for us with nearly three weeks since the last rain.

Progs have been pretty jumpy so hard to pin down details, beyond the pattern of heat.

[Dane]

Had a brief shower here (about 6.30am according to the PWS) - 0.8mm's in the gauge from it.
Sky looking fairly unstable out there so I hope we can snag something a bit later.
As David mentioned very dry the last 3 weeks, only 3.3mm's here in the last 22 days. YTD 42.2mm's.

[WeatherViewer]

Very warm out this side of Melbourne. Already 34c here in Wyndham Vale. Avalon not to far behind at 32c.

[I_Love_Storms]

Little cells popping up near Avalon hopefully more as the day progresses

[Desertdust]

A few sparks and some very refreshing rain moving through here, more than enough to wash the dust from the solar panels

[Jake Smethurst]

That cell near Geelong looks nice!

I'm currently near Port Campbell at the parents place, watching that line of thunderstorms to the west of Warrnambool with interest. Hopefully will make it to here ... I'm driving back to Melbourne tonight so still might see some sparkies on the drive home.

[James]

Will the storms out west reach melbourne tonight?

[hillybilly]

Will the storms out west reach melbourne tonight?

EC says no, GFS says yes. That said EC did have any storms in the west today...

Case of watch the radar. There is a belt of convergence through the Melbourne region between the humid sea breeze and hot northeasterly. Fingers are crossed. Overall it has been weakening but still is throwing out some sparks, and the storms are pulsy so could still see some more pop up. GFS suggests LI will stay in the -2 to -3 range well into the evening so a lot of instability.

Longer range props look similar, but can't agree on rainfall. GFS has moderate to heavy falls, ACCESS light to moderate falls, while EC has gone from good falls to zilch. Hope GFS is right

[WeatherViewer]

Here's a shot I took of those dark clouds passing over Wyndham Vale 20 minutes ago. Looked threatening, but only passed by with some rain and a slight gusty wind with it.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

What a day.
13 hours on a beach journey. Sky has been awesome all day.

[hillybilly]

Died in the NW burbs

[Geoff]

Bye bye rain, until next time.

(This time next week?)

[Gordon]

A mm or two here and the odd rumble. The fresh rain smell is fantastic!

[hillybilly]

Models have upped the rainfall for the week ahead. ACCESS and GFS look pretty good - maybe 10 to 25mm here - but EC stuck on about 5mm. Plenty of time to upgrade or downgrade

Front just through here. Very very thick fog came in on the wind change. Viz down to about 20m... one of the thickest fogs I've seen with a T/Dp of 18C. Photo is just before it got really thick.

[I_Love_Storms]

Not sure where BOM are getting their 37c for Saturday from, looks a fair bit 'less hot' (maybe low 30s) and more humid to me. Still a long way out I suppose so their forecast will keep changing anyway. Could get lucky one of the days this week with some convective rain. Looks fairly dry but both EC and GFS do have rain around, GFS a bit more with at least 10mm for places east of Central, higher falls in the eastern ranges.

[Rivergirl]

Nice photos Really hoping for a bit of rain this week. When my husband was mowing the lawns on the ride on mower it threw up so much dust. You can see the ground is drying out up here in the hills

[Wilko]

Here are some photos my son and I took on Saturday night beautiful night from Sandy yacht
Hope this works

http://s36.photobucket.com/user/michael ... ort=3&o=20

[Rivergirl]

Hi Wilko, I fixed it. Just need to click on the URL. Nice pics

[stevco123]

Love the new melbourne weather station.

It is finally reflecting the real climate and temps of melbourne. Warm inland and cooler by the bay.

Only 27.7 today in Melbourne, but 33.6 in Scoresby for example.

[StratoBendigo]

Hot day today. GFS is looking OK for some storm action in the coming days (mainly tonight and Friday-Saturday). Perhaps 10-15mm here? EC isn't really that interested.

Long range GFS is suggesting an incursion of tropical air from the NW later next week. Something to keep an eye on....