Victoria - Indian summer rolls on: March 13 to 19 2017

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:48 am

Hopefully we can shorten the thread, but looks like this autumn warmth is going to roll on for the foreseeable future. Monday and Friday might be a little coooler, but overall looks like every day in the next week or two will be warmer than average. Unless something dramatic happens March is destined to finish record warm.

Uppers are warm pretty much right through so convection and precip looks to be pretty limited. Chance of the odd shower or coastal drizzle patch Monday and Tuesday and again around Thursday of the coming week.

JasmineStorm · Post by **JasmineStorm** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:13 am

This could be a record breaking thread. Currently I'm nearly 6 degrees above max average for March. 0.4mm rain. Checked a few of the BoM sites around the region and they are similar with Kilmore gap nearly 7c above average. You would expect these figures to drop somewhat but the weather pattern is not breaking down anytime soon at this stage. This coming weekend looks like an early Feb set up.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=214

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:44 am

Keep looking for something in the progs that suggest this run of warmth might give way to normal autumn weather, but still nothing really showing up.

Warm today, hot Tuesday and Wednesday then weak trough for Thursday, then back to warm to hot conditions.

Progs mildly interested in Thursday system for some showers and perhaps a storm, but failing to agree. CMC and ACCESS both have falls over 10mm, but GFS completely lost interest with just a mm or two. EC also keen on the updated run

Maybe, a pattern change in a week. With ACCESS bringing a strong system across us around Sunday, CMC around Monday and EC around Tuesday. Still a week out so could well fizz again or get better

This could be a record breaking thread. Currently I'm nearly 6 degrees above max average for March. 0.4mm rain. Checked a few of the BoM sites around the region and they are similar with Kilmore gap nearly 7c above average

Is going to be hard for Vic to avoid its hottest March on record

the old record is 2.4C set just last year. We will hit mid month with a Vic anomaly around +5C with another hot week still to come. So over setting heat records. We've broken the Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec month records since 2000

The last cold month record for Vic was back in 1969.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:37 am

This weather is depressing.

Perth is the place to be this week and next with max temps in the low to mid 20s. (Cold for March there)

Sydney is the place to be if you want stormy weather!

And we get stuck in the middle with an endless heatwave.

jimmyay · Post by **jimmyay** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:54 am

I know the length of this settled event is extreme for Melbourne but generally I love the consistency of conditions that tend to develop this time of year. Strength of sun is slightly reduced,cooler nights , sunny days and decent warmth. Reminds me very much of Mediterranean summer weather.
The constant changing of temps ,wind and cloud in Jan and Feb in Melb are great for storm watching but if you're used to European summer conditions, Melb summers are very frustrating for outdoor activities. The current conditions are far more civilised!

Tassiedave · Post by **Tassiedave** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:36 pm

30.3 degrees in Launceston currently warmer than Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane.

WeatherViewer · Post by **WeatherViewer** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:34 pm

I'm quite enjoying this period of stable weather... Boring yes but comfortable conditions, and great for the outdoors.

I'm hoping the warm weather lasts, I'm heading down to the coast 'Princetown' on the 24th for a getaway. I guess it's anyones guess that far out, but does anybody have the extended models of what the conditions are looking like towards then?

JasmineStorm · Post by **JasmineStorm** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:56 pm

Topped at 28.5c around 2.30pm. 100 year average for March here is 23.6c, got that covered for 2017 already. Nasty dry up here now. No one dares to jump on the ride on or get the slasher out.

That 00z GFS run this afternoon was a touch extreme

For here, it just modelled 1mm from now until March 29th. It also modelled 9 out of the next 10 days over 30c including 3 over 35c, finishing with a Total fire ban type of day on March 23rd. I had to look 3 times to believe it….. my goodness, if that comes off, March records will tumble all over Vic.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:57 pm

23C here today with the odd Cu. Gusty southeasterly winds with ample humidity made it feel like Queensland in the dry season.

A few thunderies in the northeast currently but no much in the gauges. Also a couple of large fires out there from yesterday's lightning.

Bit warmer tomorrow then hot on Wednesday. Thursday's front is weak but has a very good tropical infeed. Precipitable water values are around 40mm on the change which must be close to record for this time of year. CMC and ACCESS still keen on a thundery rainband, but GFS not that keen. EC update has got near 10mm here for Thursday which would be most welcome. Same again Monday. Fingers crossed...

Looks like a second front of sorts around Sunday which could form a week wave low.

Every day for the next week looks to be above average for the time of year

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:29 pm

EC has something to break the boredom this time next week. Perhaps all this infeed from the Northeast might eventually see some precipitation....

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:06 am

Hot one today. Hot one tomorrow.

At least the models are showing a change of sorts on Thursday with some rain. Mainly develops east of Geelong, tending to peak in east central areas. Most models suggesting around 5 to 10mm, with spot fallls to around 20mm. Hopefully this one delivers a drink. Those totals could well make for the wettest day in nearly two months for spots

After that heat just rolls on. Getting a bit unstable by about Sunday.

This sums it up..

JasmineStorm · Post by **JasmineStorm** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:19 am

The northerly picks up a bit tomorrow afternoon. Will be interesting to see the fire danger ratings tonight for tomorrow. That weak trough on Thursday looks like it might spark up in central areas, probably add a couple of fires to the current list. The one near Dargo is now nearly 700 hectares.

That high pressure system behind this one, is more than half the size of the Indian Ocean currently stretching from W.A to near Madagascar off East Africa. If that also gets blocked in the Tasman when it arrives on the weekend, this pattern could go to April. I can’t see the next proper southern frontal system at the moment

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:39 am

I had a good look at the global temp charts. Antarctica is chilling fast (-0.42 degC below average). So it'll be interesting to see what happens as we head into late-Autumn IMO.

March is a write-off now.

wobbie · Post by **wobbie** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:25 pm

It's driving me a bit mad. No breeze to flow through the house, just unstoppable baking windows.

Tassiedave · Post by **Tassiedave** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:53 pm

It has reached 29.7 in Launceston this afternoon. Quite a few locations over 30 degrees with Hobart Airport at 32.9 being a standout. Launceston tracking about 4 degrees above the March average so far this month.

JasmineStorm · Post by **JasmineStorm** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:18 pm

A late top of 32.9c at 5.20pm. About 9c above average. I would expect 20 to 23c in mid March here. Redesdale the nearest BoM AWS to here is now 7 degrees above the max mean. Considering the upcoming forecast, something is not quite right. The Hadley cell should be migrating north by now. I think we are seeing a bit of history in the making for Victoria.

Tomorrow’s heat index will be up with moisture levels on the rise. Low 30’s with 30 to 40% RH is going to feel hot. Then that Thursday weak trough is an interesting one. There might be a few decent cells in the neighbourhood after lunch, including around Melbourne

Sean · Post by **Sean** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:54 pm

The glorious tedium continues, blue skies, warmth, such a great day

*Watches NSW, QLD's radars with jealously

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:23 pm

This evening's EC run sees an end to this heatwave mid-next week...

Geoff · Post by **Geoff** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:13 pm

Seems amazing to me that there's no TFB tomorrow after all the dubious ones we've had this summer. Hot and windy tomorrow after all this heatwave is asking for trouble.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:05 pm

Just shy of 27C here today. Thankfully a fresh humid sea breeze this arvo to cool things.

Thankfully not much wind tomorrow and DPs stay moderate so fire indices are fairly modest in central areas (despite the intense dry).

Bit of rain in the offering on Thursday but models don't really agree which is a bad sign. EC and GFS only got a few mms or less for most spots. CMC and ACCESS a bit keener with spot falls to 20mm in east central.

Thinking this dry spell is now the most significant here since December 2002/January 2003 (in that event we went 24 days with basically zilch had 10mm then went another three weeks with basically zilch). Hopefully we avoid that type of scenario.

EC and CMC both finally kill this pattern mid next week. Too far odd to be confident.

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Victoria - Indian summer rolls on: March 13 to 19 2017

Victoria - Indian summer rolls on: March 13 to 19 2017

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Re: Indian summer rolls on: March 13 to 31?

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Re: Indian summer rolls on: March 13 to 31?

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