The Australian Weather Forum

GFS showing a terrestrial heat bomb growing from somewhere between Jan 17 to 22nd. With clear skies and solar heating, surface temps projected to go through the roof. Canadian models showing signs and EC synoptics showing signs at 10 days. One to keep an eye on.

Tropical fuel injected anvil time bomb according to EC and GFS along with the heat index into the 40’s across Vic near the climax. Looks like a slow build up from Saturday with large potential later in the weekend and into Monday Jan 29th. The monsoon is starting to come into play, so this could be dynamite for HP storm cells. One to watch

Tasman is already very warm and from mid Feb it's going to get much warmer with a full blown marine heatwave according to NAEFS 8 to 14 day outlook. Also loads of energy now building up around the Solomon Islands to the north east of Queensland.

Once the synoptics line up, east and south eastern Australia will be under siege when the monsoon trough arrives back in Oz.

Finally, here comes a powerful large equatorial monsoon flow. Mother nature is about to play her joker. Watch out for the flow on affects in the 2nd half of March and into April for Victoria.

I hope you’re right Jasmine! It would make for a good Autumn break. Hopefully we start seeing something appearing in the models in the next week or so.

Of course after the long weekend and before Easter if I may..

Just saw this on the ABC website:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-05/c ... ns/9508844

Could this be part of what JS was referring to?

EC ensemble to starting to show variations of a tropical low from the gulf of Carpentaria that could feed an upper low over Victoria next weekend. This is the one I've been waiting for on the synoptics. Lets hope that ridge weakens to allow a tropical fed water bomb .....

I'm starting to see the first signs of a hybrid North West cloud band around April 13th on EC. The monsoon trough is releasing a late season tropical cyclone attack in the south west pacific over the next week which may assist weakening this ridge again over the coming week or so.

Decent cold front on 18Z GFS for April 12. EC reckons stupid hot and dry for days on end instead.

Something very big is brewing..... in 10 to 14 days. The real polar vortex might be arriving for first time in 2018. Still early days but there has been some very volatile model runs across the board longer term in the last day or 2. I think the real Autumn break is not far away now. EC going for an epic upper low smashing into the ridge on April 15th. If that comes off and produces a cold core surface low, the 22c Tasman waters will feed a moisture advection monster

Antarctica now has a -1.3c anomaly at the surface and +12c anomaly in the stratosphere (was 17c a few days ago) which is now mixing down into the troposphere. The sudden stratospheric warming ticking time bomb now in place. This is why EC went nuts on the 0205 00Z run for a significant cold snap into SE Australia yesterday. Big models are trying to work out when the zonal winds will mix down into the Polar Jet.... they will play it safe with high pressure for now but switch dramatically if it starts to line up which is why EC had an alarming one off run. This is one to watch for the 2nd half of May

Hmm.... according to this article BOM think SSW events cause drought in Australia

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/clim ... 4z26w.html

My understanding is they push the polar jet northwards which would result in wetter weather not dryer. So I am confused..

flyfisher wrote: ↑Sat May 05, 2018 6:37 pm Hmm.... according to this article BOM think SSW events cause drought in Australia

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/clim ... 4z26w.html

My understanding is they push the polar jet northwards which would result in wetter weather not dryer. So I am confused..

I think in the next 7 days you are about to see what they do

Currently the continent of Antarctica is 4.4c above normal. Certain areas are 25c above normal, with one spot 28c above normal. The SSW event is now full blown on the surface. The polar vortex will weaken drastically with these temperatures and zonal winds now filtered through the troposphere. The push northward will be off the scale. Currently it's too hard to tell which area of the Southern hemisphere will receive the super pulses. CFS model has indicated sea level snow in Victoria in a few weeks, others say NZ towards the end May.... but no alignment. This is one to watch very closely....

Fascinating and appears very similar to what happened in the northern hemisphere winter just gone. A widespread sea level snow event in Victoria would be awesome to witness. We’d better keep watching the models!

Interesting - thanks Jasmine. Will be intriguing to see how it evolves over the next couple of weeks.

At the moment the big models are favouring NZ in a weeks times for an epic polar blast. EC just modelled a 5 foot snow storm into the south island with lots of sea level snow around May 22nd. CFS still liking a big polar pulse into Victoria in early June but can't be taken seriously yet.

JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:04 am At the moment the big models are favouring NZ in a weeks times for an epic polar blast. EC just modelled a 5 foot snow storm into the south island with lots of sea level snow around May 22nd. CFS still liking a big polar pulse into Victoria in early June but can't be taken seriously yet.

Shame the current projection for the 22nd doesn’t include us. Fingers crossed for early June. Extremely rare to have sea level snow, but even a more usual lower level snow event would be great this early in the season.

NZ have had a mini ice through that polar surge. More to come as well.

Seeing a NW pattern starting to emerge. Cold pools are reaching more north into WA with the subtropical and polar jet streams closing in on each other. Still a little while off yet but June could become quite wet in 2 to 3 weeks.