VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

[Didjman]

Currently 25.6 from a high of 37.6. Much more comfortable

[hillybilly]

Not sure where you're seeing this to be honest. I'm seeing low-40s at most for Northern Vic mid-30s at most for Southern Vic for late next week.

GFS has 46C+ around Mildura on the latest run at 4pm. That would typically mean something in the 46 to 48C range.

http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html? ... screen:#sc

Here’s EC, which has 44 to 45C around Mildura.

http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html? ... screen:#sc

The 12Z run was just awful. It had the front slowing down and 48-50C in northwest Victoria and western NSW.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/20 ... 0600z.html

Yesterday was the hottest December day on record for SA so the extent by intensity of the heat is record breaking.

I hope the early front sticks and we can throw this airmass off into the Tasman Sea on Friday and hopefully then tap some moisture from the developing Coral Sea TC.

Still a few days off so the heat could back off or get worse, but tending to think we won’t avoid one stinker next week if the airmass is going to be budged.

[hillybilly]

Getting a bit of rain here this morning with a temperature of 19C. Quite a humid one today with the trough basically stalling for 36-48 hours. Progs not really agreeing on rain, and all jumpy. EC which hasn’t probably been the most consistent is going for 5-15mm south, and 1-5mm north. It will get quite unstable this arvo so could be a few sparks.

Have altered the thread dates to capture the heat continuing through til about Saturday. Southern area get a few milder days, but northern areas continue hot. Heat returns for the whole state on Thursday and and particularly Friday which could well be the hottest day of the event. Thankfully, EC has other models have toned down the heat to high 30s to about 40C south and low to mid 40s in the north. Hopefully that sticks.

[HarleyB]

A big scary 35 degrees here today! With rain threatening most of the day and barely any sunshine.

[hillybilly]

21C in FC today. Really humid and spitty, but just 1mm in the gauge.

Looks like Albury/Wodonga tops today with 38.8C. Southerly has pushed through almost to the far northeast, so another “milder day tomorrow” with Max’s tending to peak in the mid 30s north and mid 20s south.

Progs still want to produce some showers and storms, but been pretty sparse today

EC accelerating the front for Friday so Thursday hotter and Friday cooler (particularly south). GFS has a stake wide stinker peaking around 47.C in Mildura

[Didjman]

Have been watching the radar all arvo. Has the trough retrograded??

[hillybilly]

Have been watching the radar all arvo. Has the trough retrograded??

Appears so. The models had this happening, with rain spreading south. Don’t have confidence in the system, but some runs have been producing 25mm+ so potential. The cloud band has become much more north-south in recent satellite images and there appears to be a little cold pool back in the bight which is sharpening up the trough. There also a few sparks showing out west in the last few minutes.

We’ve just gone into fog here with a couple of heavier showers. Now up to 2.4mm for the day.

Btw EC going for a strong TC in the Gulf which looks to spread moisture south in about a week. Upper trough also builds to the west. Perhaps some proper weather in about seven days

EDIT> Alice Springs scored 45.6C today so about 51C sea level equivalent. That’s a new all months record for them Nearby sites including Kintore also set December records.

[Tassiedave]

Surely when December averages for maximum and minimum temps are calculated in coming days some records will be smashed?

[hillybilly]

Surely when December averages for maximum and minimum temps are calculated in coming days some records will be smashed?

Yep. The Australian and a number of state records are possible. Similarly average day records, runs of days above thresholds etc. Particularly in southern Australia December is usually a changeable and not too hot month.

[hillybilly]

Woke up to 3.2mm in the gauge, fog and distant rumbles. Radar looks interesting and messy still.. like when I went to bed

Trough has stalled and stays with us now for a further 36 hours. The low level humidity and precipitable water values are good with this system, but organisation is pretty weak, and there has been a dry slot below the cloud deck (above the fog) which is evaporating quite a lot of the rain. Might score another 0.2mm or 20mm

Progs have really struggled with this, so not sure what to expect in terms of totals (would guess 1-5mm more).

[Adam38]

Foggy here this morning with thunder rumbling in the distance.

[Tassiedave]

Hopefully for the Aussie cricket team there are a few mm over the MCG

[Didjman]

Dunolly to Castlemaine getting slammed by multiple CGs

[Australis(Shell3155)]

bit of thunder..

[James]

i think that storms pre-paid plan expired before it got here

[snowfall]

Foggy here this morning. Quite a lot of thunder about, and a few big claps over head with a brief heavy shower. Just a couple of mm’s so far though.

[Onetahuti]

Happy with 4.8mm, was not expecting that earlier today.

[Cass]

So according to BOM Bendigo temperature for today was 32, but my weather station is sitting at 40.9. But what is going wrong with the forecast that is the same for all areas like Castlemaine and Redesdale as well as Bendigo, and there have been no observations in a week. Its not my weather station as i put an independent thermometer out with very little difference

[StratoBendigo]

So according to BOM Bendigo temperature for today was 32, but my weather station is sitting at 40.9. But what is going wrong with the forecast that is the same for all areas like Castlemaine and Redesdale as well as Bendigo, and there have been no observations in a week. Its not my weather station as i put an independent thermometer out with very little difference

The BOM app in my phone has the AWS readings. Max of 33c today which feels about right. With maximum insolation in mid-summer, amateur weather stations and car temp readings often give erroneous temps.

[StratoBendigo]

The Nullarbor will be cooking on Thursday. Looks close to 50c there. Mildura might make it to 47-48c on Friday. Nasty.