Progs firming on a deep low forming in Bass Strait scenario now. Both EC and GFS deepen a low rapidly to the near southeast of Melbourne on Friday, likely to drop to 990hPa give or take. Gusty NW winds ahead of the developing low, and strong winds to gales on the western side. Potential for heavy falls in the Yarra Ranges and similar wet spots. EC has about 70mm here now for the sequence which would put us on target for our monthly average
Also a decent wave and storm surge event, on the bays and Bass Strait.
Not a great tropical infeed so rain will thin as you go north. Still, looks like a decent event for much of northern Vic, which will be timely
Mild ahead of the low, with 20s widespread Tuesday and Wednesday. Warmest air stays north of Vic, with mid 30s edging into northern NSW
Tomorrow has my interest with a weak trough timed for mid arvo. It’s quite unstable so could get some heavy showers and maybe the odd spark