Deep low and cold outbreak: September 22-29

[hillybilly]

New thread for part b of the incoming low. Next few days will see a sequence of troughs thrown across Vic, with a deep low passing through on Friday and Saturday. The system is chilly for mid spring, with freezing level later on Friday dropping to around 800-1000m so a decent chance for snow around Macedon and Trentham, and a long shot for the Dandenongs.

On the coast gusty winds and a storm surge. Has potential for heavy falls around the usual wet spots including the Otways, Upper Yarra etc,

[Gordon]

A cool 7C with horizontal drizzly showers here, so I can feel the slip back towards more wintery weather on the horizon.

Might have to wait a bit for our first 20C day after coming close (19C) on Saturday.

[Dane]

Getting a heavy shower with some small hail and one rumble of thunder.
Temp has dropped from 12.0c to 8.7c now.

[3030WX]

G'day Dane.

I just looked at the lightning location map on my website and there are current and recent strikes in your vicinity. Also showing some recent strikes near Korumburra.

[Blackie]

Couple of heavy, wintry showers here today. 7mm since midnight. and we're just shy of 700mm YTD (LTA 732mm).

[hillybilly]

Geez out of luck with this sequence. Split showers to the north, south, east and west. 0.6mm is the gauge. Heavier to my north and south with spot falls around 5mm.

Another trough for tomorrow arvo, so another chance.

[Sean]

Thur looks to be the pick, however the front looks a bit patchy through central vic (judging by the charts). Looks quite cold too, middle of winter cold at the moment.

Never trust September warmth lol.

Hopefully our luck improves going into October. The conditions are still favourable.

[snowfall]

1.6mm today with a few afternoon showers. Only about 15mm so far for the month. We need about 50mm more to reach average - don’t think we’ll even get halfway there! The patterns for this month were not looking good from the start, so I’m not too surprised. Hopefully October will be a different story. Looking forward to some cool weather again though.

[StratoBendigo]

Still looking at 15-20mm here in the forecasts. A possible follow up system on Tuesday next week which 'might' mean our average Sept rainfall is achieved.

[hillybilly]

Feels like we are back in winter this morning in the Nongs. Chilly NW'ly wind with frequent showers. Some are quite heavy, though brief. About 1mm so far since ~9am.

Only need about 90mm to our monthly average. Progs do look very wet Fri/Sat for southern and mountain areas, but thinking more likely 40-80mm here, so bit of a long shot to catch up.

[Skywalker]

A few brief showers pushing through here after another magic morning walking the dog.

[QldTwister]

Back to mid winter this week, after a few days of late spring, almost summer like weather on weekend and Monday.

Cold with showers and sunny breaks yesterday and again today.
Have had 3mm from yesterday and today so far, but looks like that will be about it.
LOTS of showers over Vic atm, look at the radar just heaps, they will ease later today but most will only get 1-3mm.

Next front tomorrow looking Strong and COLD, coming from a long way south, also a fair bit of moisture with this one too, so many should see some ok rain, heavy in some spots.
Most should see 5-15mm across the state.
The NE Ranges, SW coast, East of Melb into the hills, Yarra Valley and West and South Gippy more so 20-50mm.
Could see over 30cm of snow in the Alps, lots of local hail and thunder to on Friday a nice cold outbreak with the lot.
Also be some welcome rain for most of the state with the highest falls in south and mount areas as is typical with these systems.

Follow up inland rain could then follow mid next week nice active pattern atm

Enjoy the cold outbreak next 3 days

[StratoBendigo]

Looks like 15mm is the consensus on the models for this cold outbreak here. Might get a similar amount next week, although there has been a pattern of wildly overestimating amounts lately.

[snowfall]

2.4mm here today with those showers this afternoon. And a max of 13c, so getting cooler. Looking forward to a bit more rain over the next couple of days. It is still green here but the ground has been starting to dry out quite a bit, especially with all the wind this month.

[StratoBendigo]

2.4mm here today with those showers this afternoon. And a max of 13c, so getting cooler. Looking forward to a bit more rain over the next couple of days. It is still green here but the ground has been starting to dry out quite a bit, especially with all the wind this month.

The ground is dry and dusty here. Quite sad for September. If it wasn't for the 200mm we got in April, there would be no moisture below the surface either.

[hillybilly]

Cool blustery one up here with 2mm and a max of 10C. Filthy wind at times made it feel a lot colder than it was.

Tomorrow is a bit of an in between day with most showers later. Friday and Saturday look cold, wet and windy.

[Sean]

Yeah, Friday is looking quite good right now, with snow, thunder and some torrential showers about the mist and drizzle. A real mixed bag.

GFS has snow through Ballarat and surrounding areas, but doesn't look as promising re. Thur's rainband or Friday's heavy showers/rain periods.

Time will tell.

[hillybilly]

Just over 5mm in the gauge this morning. Foggy and spitty this morning.

Front approaches late today with showers towards evening, heavy in the west.

Tomorrow is cold, wet and windy. EC drops snow levels to just below 600m so Ballarat, Macedon, Trentham and the Nongs are a chance. Looks better along the great divide, where I’m expecting the higher towns should probably see a brief cover. Shame we’ve got restrictions as Donna Buang, St Leonard and Lake Mt will look a treat come Saturday

[StratoBendigo]

Seeing only 10-15mm now in forecast for here. MTD is 20mm so no chance of meeting Sept mean.

So 2020 refilling our major storages has failed miserably.

[Gordon]

5mm here for the dates so far. Unfortunately I wont be here again until tomorrow afternoon to watch what unfolds. Should be an interesting 48 hours!