Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

[StratoBendigo]

The rain has been getting gradually heavier. 3mm thus far but it might have potential to tally up to something reasonable.

[James]

but isnt that almost always the way? seems familiar!

oops delete this one

[James]

Is forecasting a mere 10% of the original progs classified as a fizzer to anyone else? 3 to 8mm, compared to 30 to 80 (roughly) just days ago

but isn't that always the way?

[Tassiedave]

Tas Rainfall forecasts for tomorrow: Launceston 10-30mm Ulverstone 25-80mm St Marys 30-100mm, Burnie 20-70mm, Deloraine 15-50mm Bicheno 20-60mm

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Should've hung the washing out.

[Skywalker]

Is forecasting a mere 10% of the original progs classified as a fizzer to anyone else? 3 to 8mm, compared to 30 to 80 (roughly) just days ago

Nothing surprises me atm with yet another system downgrade potentially on the cards for tomorrow, but I'm going to take a wait & see approach at this stage.

[Sean]

Models still have the best stuff passing through late tonight/early tomorrow morning. If it doesn't eventuate, definite fizzer. But I'm willing to give them a chance until then

[Blackie]

Is forecasting a mere 10% of the original progs classified as a fizzer to anyone else? 3 to 8mm, compared to 30 to 80 (roughly) just days ago

Not unless you have the ability to actually see into the future. This thing is just cranking up now. Perhaps reserve conclusions until the conclusion

[snowfall]

We've had fog all day here with drizzle and the occasional heavier burst setting in for much of the afternoon. 2.8mm so far. Quite a cold, dark, wintry day, though not quite as cold as yesterday. We reached a maximum of 11.3c today but only 8.4c yesterday.

Judging by the radar, it looks like the current rain band will clear at some stage this evening, but hopefully another band to come through later and overnight. Shame about the overall downgrades, but there's still a reasonable amount of rain on the radar currently, which will be welcome.

[Hawker]

At the rate this is going, going to be lucky to get bugger all!
Yet EC still wants to give 30 to 40 Hmmm

[hillybilly]

Damp murky day up here. 1mm so far. The low will be west of Horsham later tonight, crossing the coast near Colac then tracking just south of Melbourne.

All looks good to me. This was never going to be a cracking storm event - is all embed in murk. Am expecting big falls, particularly northern slopes, then the south will fill in with the wrap around rainband. Plains just west of Melbourne and Gippsland will struggle but everywhere else should see the best part of a months worth of rain by the end of this thread

[Onetahuti]

As with most of the metro area only spots of rain so far, a 'mammoth' 0.2mm. I will continue to await what comes.
Tanks are already near full so no problems there, of why do I have the feeling that around 9AM tomorrow there will be some heavy rain? I do not drive so it is a near 2km walk. Oh that's right, after 3 months and 10 days (who's counting) of not being allowed in due to Covid I can go visit my partner who is in aged care.

[QldTwister]

Just relax everyone areas of moderate to heavy rain in the Mallee and Wimmera all to move down and the low is still deepening, lots of rain to come for much of the state with many getting rain for much of the night into the early hours of the morning.

Melb should get 10-20mm overnight as should much of the state with many more getting 15-25mm by 9am tomorrow
Then southern and mount folk get more rain showers and wrap around rain tomorrow into tomorrow night
Wait till this time tomorrow before writing this event off, all good for many to get a nice soak

3mm from drizzle yesterday and another 1mm today from drizzle

Wet night ahead happy times

[Wilko]

Yeah the rain usually always disappoints when it comes from the North especially SE burbs
Still we should see some decent totals especially with the wraparound tomorrow arvo/night

[Skywalker]

Plains just west of Melbourne and Gippsland will struggle

Really getting tired of seeing those types of frustrating predictions HB.
Hope your wrong.

[StratoBendigo]

Now up to 11mm. It ain't over either...

[Adam38]

6mm in the gauge so far today, drizzled all afternoon with some heavier bursts of rain, foggy at times throughout the day too.

[hillybilly]

Plains just west of Melbourne and Gippsland will struggle

Really getting tired of seeing those types of frustrating predictions HB.
Hope your wrong.

Would not be the first time

Unfortunately climatology is not your friend.

Rain thickening up nicely on radar. Few larger falls showing up out west now, Been light rain in the Nongs for a few hours, and just on 2mm.

[QldTwister]

Yep rain picking up as forecast, and Strato lots more to come you just had to wait lol

Everyone will get some good rain, happy times ahead should start picking up in Melb in coming hours

Near 30mm in the Mallee and another very wet day in SA under the low, for the week many have had 50mm plus thats alot for SA

[wobbie]

Really starting to add up at Warrnambool, which was predicted