Trough and front: 10-12 November

[Harley34]

Have not posted in a while, but next week looks promising. Weather has been cool to mild for the most part. Few days recently have been very warm, but majority have been cool to mild and looking to see how the La Nina shapes in to December and 21.

Anyway, looks like a sharp inland trough with good infeed connecting with a deepening low developing in the southern on monday. Synoptics say Tuesday in to Wednesday particularly could see moderate falls around SA into VIC. Focus looks good for the NE again, but the low looks to drift south just as it peaks below the strait. Hope Melbourne can get 1 to 2 inches. NE might get 2 to 3. Storms look good for Wednesday. Lots of spinning and blocking in the southern seas. Good to see lows blocking highs. Lets see what happens...

[Hawker]

Strato said
"It's been a dry start to November here. Perhaps 15mm mid-week and I can't really see anything much beyond that."

Looks about it access not so keen here, maybe 10 or 20 under a storm, drying out fast, here hay cutters are busy.
Not much of a LaNina year but it did probably give a better finish than might have been otherwise.

[weathergasm]

No one should be writing off La Niña before the monsoon trough hits the Australian mainland. That’s when things have much higher potential to get cranking.

[Sean]

QLD and NSW have been having a wild couple of weeks, most likely intensified by la nina, both inland and coastally. But yeah, down in Vic, it's marginal at best in terms of impact so far, and I would put that down to bad luck to be honest, as the available moisture just hasn't been linking up with the events that well.

Wed is currently looking better in the charts, GFS and EC both progging some thunderstorm activity passing through Melbourne around the mid to late afternoon. Will it be a case of third time's the charm?

[StratoBendigo]

00Z model outputs are still very divergent. 10-35mm being thrown up as possibilities. Given recent form I would say we'll get the lower estimates.

Definitely looks like a dry spell afterwards into late-November.

[hillybilly]

Progs trending better for storms. Has a lot of potential with a slow trough well ahead of the parent low with very good low level moisture. GFS has precip water values locally above 40mm on Wednesday

Depending on timing and details, has potential to produce widespread storms and local heavy falls. Before that a couple of warm to hot ones.

[Didjman]

Progs trending better for storms.

Depending on clear skies of course

[Sean]

Progs trending better for storms.

Depending on clear skies of course

BOM going for 'partly cloudy', so we'll see. Will definitely impact severity, but it will be quite warm.

It *might* be our first case of extensive, severe storms so far this season. Severe rainwise hopefully, because as much as I like a good storm, I'd like to avoid having my car windows, roof tiles, solar panels and plants smashed to pieces as the poor old residents of south of brissy copped a week ago.

[hillybilly]

Almost hot here today with a max of 24C. Tomorrow should be a degree or two hotter.

Looks like a significant storm outbreak on Wednesday, though timing isn’t good for Melbourne so expecting to be disappointed (and see it fade here), while hoping for a surprise

Could be significant falls through west central and north central.
,

[Didjman]

Check out the dust plume over the Bight from SA! Some serious wind!

[hillybilly]

Check out the dust plume over the Bight from SA! Some serious wind!

Here’s one shot of the dust with a big pyro Cu also going up over SA.



Lots of thunderies gone up over SA and western Vic. Will die down a bit then fire up tomorrow. Tomorrow will bring a big band of storms, with warnings out for severe storms. The precip water values are locally very high (perhaps even locally approaching records), so some of the storms will be real dumpers.

Gets to Melbourne late, so will be fading a bit. Currentl Wimmera through to west central looks best.

[hillybilly]

Crazy warm night out there with mins close to the typical maxima for early November. Big storm day ahead. Will focus in areas west of Melbourne, with a large area of storms from around the Wimmera to west central. Will be heavy falls under the band. This moves slowly east, but will fade so further east might be a bit of a rainfall miss for Gippsland and east parts. Severe storms likely, and on the forecast from BoM

There will also be storms go up this arvo ahead of the main development area. EC has scattered storms through Melbourne from late arvo though only spotty falls so will be a bit hit and miss, and likely fairly high based. Suspect a case of some spots getting 10mm and some getting 0mm.

[stevco123]

Not really expecting anything down here to be honest. I've been here for 5 years and it's not really storm friendly.

[Harley34]

Looks like rain and storms already in W VIC. Early arrival or pre-frontal? Seems to be firing out there already. Cloud cover, but still warm enough with the LP approaching. Perhaps a multicell later?

[StratoBendigo]

Overcast here. Dead as a Dodo.

MJO is in the opposite phase, monsoon is still in the Nthn Hemisphere. Nothing until December IMO.

[Gordon]

Looks like rain and storms already in W VIC. Early arrival or pre-frontal? Seems to be firing out there already. Cloud cover, but still warm enough with the LP approaching. Perhaps a multicell later?

Yes, odds-defying (BOM says 20% chance ) steady rain falling here.

[stevco123]

The way i understood the forecast yesterday was that there would be something in the morning but not much making it to Melbourne, then a clearing followed by major development later.

[Sean]

Of course, it’s heavily overcast...

[stevco123]

Of course, it’s heavily overcast...

I never liked prefrontal storms. They never eventuate.

We need 3 days in a row of 35 degrees with no clouds, broken by storms each day. Hasn't happened for over 10 years it seems

[Skywalker]

Of course, it’s heavily overcast...

Not at all surprised to be honest.
IMO the storm season won't get cranking until at least late December, so anything that we possibly get now I see as a bonus.