Long spell of winter westerlies: July 11-18?

[hillybilly]

Cold 7.4C here yesterday with another 0.4mm. Bit of an in between day today ahead of a strong front tomorrow. That one looks quite wet, particularly southern and mountain areas. Coldies, with hail and thunder and snow down to around 700m at its lowest.

Next weekend looks feral. Intense low, gales, big storm surge coinciding with a series of high tides and low level snow. Some of the model runs would be very very damaging. Let’s hope that record deep low showing up in some of the model runs doesn’t occur.

[Gordon]

I find myself in the unusual position of wishing the more intense models for later in the week don't come off!

Meanwhile, suggest we extend the date range for this thread to tomorrow (20 July), and start a new thread for later in the week?

[StratoBendigo]

I find myself in the unusual position of wishing the more intense models for later in the week don't come off!

Meanwhile, suggest we extend the date range for this thread to tomorrow (20 July), and start a new thread for later in the week?

Yep, agree. Probably looking at 5-10mm in tomorrow's short-sharp front.

[hillybilly]

I find myself in the unusual position of wishing the more intense models for later in the week don't come off!

Meanwhile, suggest we extend the date range for this thread to tomorrow (20 July), and start a new thread for later in the week?

Done.

Getting a few showers here… almost thundery this arvo. Cold outside, at still less than 7C.

[Petros]

Just a cool cloudy 14.5C day here with on-off light NW'ly.

Finally got to mow the boggy areas left over from the heavy rains, more than a month back, today at Royal Maffra.

Looks like a couple of very cold frontal systems to impact us over next 7 days. Nth Gippy, again, looks to be rain-shadowed for these, but it will be cold/windy, and with plenty of snow up top will see the Gippsland rivers have a healthy snow melt run-off this spring.

[hillybilly]

Chilly max of 7.1C today. Winds made it feel cold.

Cracking front due tomorrow. Snow levels drop to 600 to 700m. Looks a bit too mild for proper snow here, but might get the odd flurry of sleet or snow.

Coming weekend looks wild.

[Gordon]

Another 3.5mm to 9am brings us to 50mm mtd. Nothing exceptional, but 8th day straight of rain makes it feel pretty wet!

Watching this afternoon's front with interest re snow.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Thread needs a date change.. I do understand. one day rolls into another. lounge room, kitchen, bedroom, repeat. oh Laundry also..

[Wilko]

Significant burst of showers SW of Melbourne
Wouldn’t be surprised to see 25mm plus
Batten down for a wild afternoon

[snowfall]

Just 21mm for the month so far here. I suspected it might lean toward the drier side here given the dominant setup, which has left us plagued with rain shadows! That said, the ground is saturated anyway, so it's not as though we need loads of rain for a little while, but I expect it to pick up again as we move into August, especially if the IOD continues to strengthen.

A cool 8c here currently and 0.8mm this morning - should be a fairly chilly evening. Interesting weekend coming up with some reasonably cold air moving through. Love a bit of a cold outbreak , provided it's not too windy!

[Wilko]

Squall Warning
For Port Phillip and Western Port


Issued at 11:51 am EST on Tuesday 20 July 2021.
Squally south to southwesterly wind change expected to reach southern parts of Port Phillip and Western Port from 12:30aest, then extending throughout and persisting during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 knots expected with squalls to 50 knots possible, especially with showers and storms during the afternoon and early evening.

[Dane]

Squally winds up to 54kmh at Ballarat Airport. Temp on my PWS now 6.1c, 5.7c at the Airport.
Steady rain here 8mm's since 8am now 72.6mm's for the MTD - 72.2mm's at the Airport.

[Gordon]

Thread needs a date change.. I do understand. one day rolls into another. lounge room, kitchen, bedroom, repeat. oh Laundry also..

Haha - too true! We did discuss a few posts back, so you can assume it's extended to today, even though the dates up top don't show it.

Strato has started a new thread for the big system later in the week - we might just manage a short break between them!

Meanwhile, trying to snow here - sleet with the odd big blob. Can't give a temp because my thermometer has inconveniently chosen to die. The app says 4C.

[Dane]

Squally shower here with some small Hail. Temp has dropped to 4.7c and Wind gust up to 33 Knots - 61kmh.
Temp at Ballarat Airport has also dropeed to 4.7c with wind gusts to 35 knots - 65kmh.
Wind chill is way below zero

[Gordon]

Short burst of proper snow on the back of that last cell - our first that I'll record as such for 2021. (We had a few flakes Saturday but I won't count that!)

Still looking for our first settled snow of the year which seems late, but then again, it happened late last winter and we ended up with 4 separate 'on the ground' events.

[93ben]

Had a couple of hail showers here with the first one covering the place like it was snow!

[Petros]

Change arrived here mid arvo, dropped us from a mild late morning 18.5C to the present 8.5C. It was a weak change here, but provided 3mm of rain to keep topsoil moisture ticking along, and this time, snow on the SW facing mountains for our snow accumulation.

We are now rain-shadowed by Tassie for tonight it seems. Getting the feeling that Vic is set up for a magnificent spring, both for farm production, ....and for us, storms!

[Didjman]

Getting the feeling that Vic is set up for a magnificent spring, both for farm production, ....and for us, storms!

BRING IT ON!!!

[flyfisher]

Looks like King island stream splitting going on at the moment on the radar.

[hillybilly]

Just shy of 12mm here today. Feral day with fog, sideways rain, frequent hail showers/graupel showers on the front and some big gusts. Max of 6.2C Almost snow, but not quite again. Dipped to 3.8C during the mid arvo, so about 1C too warm for proper snow. Starting to clear but a few more hours of showers to come. New thread time for the weekend