Vic - potential rain in the east from an inland low 5-8/1/22

[Petros]

I was talking to the curator of the Bairnsdale golf club this arvo, he said he is expecting an inch of rain later next week.

So I had a look, and yep, GFS (not yet updated) and CMC show some potential for handy rain, despite that cyclone remnant hovering out in "the ditch" at that time:



Something to watch, caught me by surprise!

[Petros]

And now EC is onto it, currently forecasting this for Maffra next week:

[StratoBendigo]

Hmmmm, EC is really juicing this one up for us. 60-70mm certainly at the top end of expectations. GFS is like nope, 0mm.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Will be welcome, my gum leaves are really dry..
20 to 40mm won’t be good for campers, especially the size of the vans they take into the bush these days.

Demanding a Great New Year ahead to all.. !

[Australis(Shell3155)]

110mm predicted over 5 days….

[Petros]

Yep, it seems that a broadscale easterly dip event will form over NSW/Vic in coming days, the SST has warmed a fair bit off NSW coast past week, so this system should draw reasonable humid air into Vic from the NE as it establishes:

[weathergasm]

I’m just happy there’s finally going to be a break from this interminably boring run of featureless settled weather under slow moving, training high pressure systems. I don’t care if it’s a few showers or some sustained rain or a massive storm outbreak, just ANYTHING on the radar would be great

[StratoBendigo]

All the forecast models except GFS are keen for a deluge here. EC going for 80 mm...

[Petros]

WZ site playing up for me, so cant capture an image, suffice to say, CMC and EC are still keen on that large area inland easterly dip low pressure system to establish over Eastern Aus next week.

Latest EC hinting at 63mm rain for Maffra. We would love that if it comes off. Good luck for rain for all other areas of Vic (thoughts are with campers though).

[StratoBendigo]

Even GFS is slowly coming onboard. 20mm in that model, although Icon and EC making me nervous with 100mm+...

[stevco123]

Not looking forward to the humidity.

[Gordon]

Widespread event for Vic in the eyes of BOM and everyone else now, except Weatherzone, who stubbornly keep the trough line a couple of hundred kilometres east. Think they might be on holidays .

[Didjman]

The fact that ants are furiously building mounds around their holes here in Wallan tells a story!

[Mike]

LOL imagine if UKmet was right.

[Petros]

Latest available to me via WZ is CMC:



Still consistent with that broadscale Easterly Dip scenario. Gives Maffra 50mm rain over the next 5 days, I notice that EC's latest (via yr.no) is more generous with 75mm.

No matter which, this rain will have a significant impact on delaying severe fire prospects for the Vic SE mountain regions, at least for this January?

[QldTwister]

So annoyed this looks like a great event, but im in Mildura all week we are to far west so mild and sunny low 30s while 100kms to my east will have heavy rain and severe thunderstrons for 3 days.

If you are on or east of Swan Hill to Cape Otway your gonna have alot of fun, if you in the far west mild sunny week no rain dry rolls on.

Then possible repeat mid late next week

Central and East Vic wet and humid 3 days with many getting 50 to 100mm for the week, with lots of flash flooding.

Lots of rain and stroms this week here in the far NW just dry and sunny watching action to my E and SE

[StratoBendigo]

Ants are going crazy, spiders are raiding our house turning it into a horror movie (regular screams from other family members)...

It must be going to rain. 30mm+ almost locked in.

[dazrain]

How does it go from basically zero rain for almost a month to a deluge?

I’m tipping 10mm for the event for Melbourne CBD and huge dud. Lock
in the feral humidity though!

Come on Skywalker - back me up bro!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Pitter patter…
Let’s fill my tanks..
Radar shows nothing, although it’s dripping in down pipes.

[StratoBendigo]

More crazy model divergence this morning. GFS still pushes it East (8mm here), a couple think 30-40mm (EC and CMA), several reckon 80-100mm, while UKMET detonates 150mm+ here and across Melbourne....

BOM WATL - 50mm.