Trough drifting across from South Aust Sept 6-10

[StratoBendigo]

Another round of wet Spring weather this coming week. It's already bucketing down in Northern NSW and parts of Qld.

It looks like we'll get a piece of the action from mid-week as a moisture-laden trough drifts across through South Australia into Bass Strait to form a complex Low pressure system. Looking like 20-40mm is possible here at this stage.

[QldTwister]

Yeah looking good, most of the state should see 15 to 30mm again, with 30 to 50mm on north facing and in the NE were isol 80mm possible.

Again this will lead to minor flooding on many rivers in NE Vic that all flow to the Murray
Snow melt will also pick up in coming weeks.
Weekly 25 to 50mm falls next few weeks sets the stage for massive floods in parts of Vic Oct to Dec when we get those big 100mm rainfall events

Intresting times ahead

Looking forward to some warm sunshine on Tuesday and Wednesday before the rain.

These falls be great for northern Mallee crops and the satelite images atm are just so green so good to see

[Petros]

Yep, looking like a wet Thursday looming for the majority of Vic, GFS seems to be the middle of prediction extremes at this early stage:



All models show Gippsland to be under the Foehn effect so, again dodging a bullet. Rain not required in these parts yet.

[StratoBendigo]

Still on track for 20-40mm here - pretty much all of it on Thursday.

And today marks the 27th Anniversary of my favorite cold outbreak - the epic 5th Sept 1995 one that caked Mt Dandenong in snow from Top to bottom, and saw snow fall as far North as Elmore. Flakes were also reported in the CBD that day.

[QldTwister]

This this is just the begining of a wet month ahead espeically north and west Vic classic IOD

Widespread 20-40mm for much of N and W Vic on Thursday with isol fall over 50mm possible and possibly higher in the NE
Looking wet in E SA to which be welcome there after a dryish few months missing most of the big rains but still getting some.

Most rivers in northern Vic likely to go back into minor flood levels again Fri Sat and all mostly flow to the Murray

Expecting a big flood like the early 90s on the Murray this spring early summer

Light rain and showers in Melb but thats fine dont need the rain here.
Tuesday Wednesday looking like very nice days most welcome before a run of wet cold days Thurs through early next week

Models show another big rain event mid late next week too so the pattern has def shifted very IOD and 2016 like

[StratoBendigo]

Thursday is pretty much locked in. It's going to be an interesting September to say the least.

Next week has more of a cold outbreak in the mix. Potential for low-level snow, although it's still a long way out.

[Macedonian]

Still on track for 20-40mm here - pretty much all of it on Thursday.

And today marks the 27th Anniversary of my favorite cold outbreak - the epic 5th Sept 1995 one that caked Mt Dandenong in snow from Top to bottom, and saw snow fall as far North as Elmore. Flakes were also reported in the CBD that day.

I remember that one!
Here is a more recent 5th of Sept event. This time its 2017 at my place.

FB_IMG_1662348359597.jpg (97.63 KiB) Viewed 2101 times

I had frost this morning at home. Gorgeous day now. My first temp above 7° since last Thursday.
It has been freezing since then.

[StratoBendigo]

This event is starting to be talked up by the BOM. AXS-G is the most bullish model with 60mm forecast. Most are predicting around the 30-40mm mark.

It'll depend on how much Coral Sea moisture it picks up I reckon. Reminds me somewhat of the early-Sept 2010 deluge, albeit less extreme than that one.

[QldTwister]

Big soak for northern Vic on the way which will put a number of rivers into minor flood but great news for crops in NW Vic will set them up now till the end

Widespread 20-50mm for much of the state with this one

Another big front low next week will really ramp up the flooding across the state

Loving the warm sunshine today

Totally agree SB has that feel and low of Sept 2010 just not as big and DPs only around 10c not 15c 20c as they were for Sept 2010 event but the pattern big low front every week is very 2010 and 2016 the floods are coming

[Petros]

Latest CMC say's you were spot on as usual Twister:



All the cereal cropping areas in Vic getting a significant "near-inch" drink in early spring, excellent timing normally, but will Huey turn the tap off before it's too much over the following rain systems? I guess we are all expecting areas like the lower Lodden River/Eildon region to become problematic by November.

Even this single event will see Dartmouth spill, thus ensuring the Murray River goes into (at least) minor flooding for the coming months.

[QldTwister]

Yeah its gonna be real bad I reckon Petros.
Crops east of Swan Hill to Bendigo will be lost I reckon which sucks as such a good season so far, as just to much rain coming next 2 months
Mallee might just be ok and will have a ripper season i think.

Yeah I think going to be big flooding on Murray this year as big if not bigger than early 90s we so wet everything full and lots of rain next 2 to 3 months

System on track very wet day for many on and north of the ranges tomorrow with most seeing 20-30mm with isol 50 to 70mm about the ranges and with storms Only 5 to 10mm south of the ranges but all good we wet and dont need it.

Widespread showers and isolated stroms across the state on Friday generally another 1-5mm with isol falls up to 10mm

Showers south and mount on Sat, Sun, Mon mostly light falls and cold snow in the hills.

Major rain event Wednesday to Friday next week could be more like 30-50mm with isol 80-100mm for the state which would see flood issues REALLY ramp up.

[StratoBendigo]

8mm of light to moderate rain so far. And quite a solid rainband up near Swan Hill atm.

[Didjman]

9.4mm here so far.

[Macedonian]

Bit of an over- hyped day in regard to rainfall totals.
Nothing much happening anywhere south or north of the bump.

[StratoBendigo]

Bit of a black Nor-easter blowing here at present. 50 km/h gusts and rain is picking up... Now up to 19mm event total.

[snowfall]

Damp, grey day here today. So far just over 10mm has fallen along with a fairly gusty north easterly wind.

I haven't checked yet, but I imagine totals will be clocking up well on the northern slopes.

[StratoBendigo]

Bendigo now up to 27mm event total. And still a bit in it.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Going to be tough heading home, today under caravan awning was 37.8

[Didjman]

20mm so far here for the event.

[Blackee]

23 mm event so far