Becoming mild and windy, followed by a showery change: 3-8 August.

[hillybilly]

Strong system peaking over Perth in the next couple of days will bring us relatively warm windy conditions ahead of a showery front for Thursday and Friday. System starts out very mild, with temps likely to spike into the 20s into northwest Victoria and much of South Australia and NSW.

Rain totals will be significant in northern and western Tasmania, with ok falls into some southern parts of Victoria and southeast tas. Unfortunately more rain in the alps. Doesn’t look like this system will produce any meaningful snow for the alps but it will produce some warm rain, so things up there are really looking challenging. A few or the lower resorts are close or on the verge of closing ops.

Might get a brief shot of cold air around Sunday with a sneaky trough moving up through the incoming low.

[StratoBendigo]

Interesting weather in WA today. 30c near Eucla on the Nullabor Coast this afternoon (not quite a record), but now 7c at Bunbury after 76mm of rain with the powerful cold front.

If there's one thing that's characterised winter in 2023, it's the persistent peaking of cold fronts with SW WA.

[hillybilly]

Interesting weather in WA today. 30c near Eucla on the Nullabor Coast this afternoon (not quite a record), but now 7c at Bunbury after 76mm of rain with the powerful cold front.

If there's one thing that's characterised winter in 2023, it's the persistent peaking of cold fronts with SW WA.

Was watching it last night. Amazing that only 100 or so kms south of Perth had locally around 100mm, and Perth only scraped a few mms. Would have been mighty frustrating. Also split the wheat belt so southern areas got 25-50mm which sets them up, while the northern part which is really struggling got very little or none.

For us system peaks and slides

Very mild one today, but don’t expect records as it’s so early in the month. Some rain for tomorrow, including to the very tops of the alps on the mainland.

Heavy falls in western Tas. Elsewhere will be a bit of a struggle to get much. Hoping for about 10mm here, but could be anywhere between 2 and 20mm going off the progs.

[Tassiedave]

Tasmania's incredibly warm winter continues. Max Temps in Tas today: Hobart 19.6, Campania 19.5, Bushy Park 19.4. Hobart August average is 13.1.

[Macedonian]

Crazy warm at Mt Macedon today as well. Made it to 11.3° . That's our warmest day since mid may.
Still 10° at midnight. Unbelievable.

[snowfall]

Really messed up weather this year. We reached 16.7c yesterday. A temp like that might happen late in August, but not typically at the start. And the overnight minimum we had of 11.5c is a fairly typical summer night.

Also getting a bit concerned about the shortfall of rain. The grass is still green but the ground is drying quite quickly, especially with a lot of sunny days followed by strong winds. There should be a little rain around today, but systems are struggling, no doubt reflecting the emerging El Nino.

[hillybilly]

Warm windy night here. Rain slipping south as expected. Hoping to get a bit, but not really expecting useful falls for most.

Looking at the Pacific looks like the slow to get going El Niño is about to couple. Might be a lean and warm few months ahead for most.

[Skywalker]

Absolutely disgusting conditions down here on the island. Not much better back in the western suburbs earlier this morning either. Pathetic System!
Going to be a very depressing couple of months coming up unfortunately. Sprinklers, hoses & watering cans are armed & ready.

[Derwent]

Considering what’s happening globally and now in the far South America where Winter temperatures are happening around 10c above average which is like Sydney having a 30c day in July we are sort of lucky so far.
Just massive highs over Australia continuing for the 7-10 days at least it’s basically rinse and repeat.
A few showers overnight down here with night and day temperatures running well over above expected early August.

[hillybilly]

18C here today. Just enough rain to wet the roads. Fortunately not much wind.

For what it’s worth, Hobart’s forecast puts us around warmest August on record come mid month. Not really what you want to see after the warmest July on record. Feels like winter has just disappeared. Maybe second half of the month can be record cold and put us on average

Good rain in western Tasmania with this system and in the northeast of Victoria. Pretty patchy elsewhere.

[Sean]

The high pressure ridge looks impenetrable on the synoptic maps. Hopefully mid to late August delivers (it often does).

Starting to worry about summer. After a couple of wet years, there's quite a bit of fuel around; and if the monsoon fails during an El Nino in this day and age expect record breaking temperatures across the country.

[Derwent]

18C here today. Just enough rain to wet the roads. Fortunately not much wind.

For what it’s worth, Hobart’s forecast puts us around warmest August on record come mid month. Not really what you want to see after the warmest July on record. Feels like winter has just disappeared. Maybe second half of the month can be record cold and put us on average

Good rain in western Tasmania with this system and in the northeast of Victoria. Pretty patchy elsewhere.

Yes looks likely we be around 15 plus average by mid August .

[Blackee]

Luck to get 10mm with this system to date after a warm windy night. Green up Mansfield way but surface was getting crunchy before this fall.

[Macedonian]

Had a glance back at the last few months on my PWS. After a very cold May this has been the most un-wintry winter I've ever known in the twenty years that I have spent at Mt Macedon.
It's been one long endless un-exciting grey slightly above average festival of blah.

These figures are for max temps only.

Bit rainy here this morning so I took the opportunity to tally up my June and July MAX temps.

June mean av max 7.1°
June median max 6.9°

July mean av max 7.1°
July median max. 7.5°

The interesting thing this year is that May came in very close to June and July.
May mean av max 7.5°
May median max. 7.3°

July was completely devoid of cold days (max less than 5°) We could normally expect quite a number of max temps with a 3 or 4 in front of them and sometimes a 2 but this July the coldest max was 5.1°.
Our av max for July should be around 6°.
This July came in very close to what used to be average for the old Macedon Forestry bom site 360m lower than us in altitude.

June was a little better with three cold days. One 4.8°, a 4.1° and coldest for Winter so far was 3.2° on 21/6
They were balanced out by three unusually warm days, the warmest of which was 12.8° on 4/6.

May had colder days than July as well with the lowest max being 3.6°.

I didn't bother doing the mins because they are never very interesting. I don't recall us going below zero so far this winter.

[hillybilly]

Same down here Macedonian. Most uninspiring spell of winter weather I’ve seen. Got a couple of nice frost in early June, but since then it’s like a switch was flipped. Not a single cold day (coldest a remarkable 11C) no proper hail, thunder, graupel, sleet, or snow. No proper fogs. Fern Tree which is the usually quite snowy hill side suburb of Hobart doesn’t appear to have had a proper snow for the year. Last year which was a pretty typical winter it had snow lying for about ten days. The Mt has been snow free most days, with no snowfall lasting on the ground for more than a few days.

Our rain has been almost exactly average, so not overly dry.

Week ahead looks like rinse and repeat. Perhaps time for a new thread.

[snowfall]

Yes, it hasn't really felt like a winter at all. I was actually thinking recently that we haven't even had a proper fog this season, and barely any hail, sleet etc.

Every week seems identical to the previous one. For here, that means at least a couple of days of gale force winds or worse, accompanied by extreme rain shadowing, followed by a short period of dry spring-like weather, and then it repeats as the next weak but windy front passes through. As a result, our rainfall has dropped below normal, with nothing registered for this month and only 30mm for July.

The pattern will shift at some point, but not sure when that will be.

[Derwent]

The run now up till the 15th of the month is basically 16 degrees every day. Just so depressing in Southern Tasmania.

[jimmyay]

I cycle commute daily so this winter has been pretty nice really. Good for those who like to exercise out of doors. Do enjoy the increased sun we’ve had to this winter.

A little boring though admittedly.