Front followed by a low: August 10-15

[hillybilly]

Messy sequence coming up with a fast moving front, followed by a trailing low which develops on the upper trough. First system looks blustery with showers. The low could be quite a solid rain producer, depending on track. Both systems are quite mild, so marginal for snow in the alps. Might save the season for a few more days, or wash it out. Time will tell.

[stevco123]

Very foggy this morning with visibility still down to between 20 and 50 metres at times. Currently 5 degrees.

One of those rare proper winter mornings of 2023

[jimmyay]

Someone told me they saw a few flakes of snow in St Kilda earlier amongst the freezing foggy drizzle!

[StratoBendigo]

A light frost here this morning.

Probably looking at about 10- 15mm here over the date range to keep thinks ticking over. Might be more from August 16th onwards going by the long range forecast models, plus some proper cold air in the mix. Winter might return with vengence.

[hillybilly]

Proper frost down in Howden this morning. Been about a month since the last one which is really unusual.

Blustery frost on track for tomorrow. Looking cool enough for snow up high.

Next week could end up quite winter if EC sticks. Guess we will see. Do need some rain across a lot of eastern Australia so hopefully it sticks.

[Macedonian]

Someone told me they saw a few flakes of snow in St Kilda earlier amongst the freezing foggy drizzle!

There is always someone with the ability to see the improbable if not the impossible.
I'm up at Bright. No snow visible on Mt Buffalo.
Can see some towards Mt Hotham but not a great deal.

[hillybilly]

Good to see a few mms for most of VIC this morning and a bit of snow on the alps. A fairly mild system, but just cool enough for the majors.

Miss down in Tas with the system tending to split. Starting to dry our at home, with just 10mm for the months so far

System for next week looks like staying mostly north of the southeast, so part B might be cancelled. Perhaps a decent low about this time next week.

[Gordon]

After a couple of cracking days (though too windy for my liking yesterday), quite a wintery morning here, 6C with drizzly showers; 5mm to 9am.

It is just bizarre hearing these warm, dry Tassie reports - you'd think being 400km further south would count for something

[Macedonian]

Good to see a few mms for most of VIC this morning and a bit of snow on the alps. A fairly mild system, but just cool enough for the majors.

Miss down in Tas with the system tending to split. Starting to dry our at home, with just 10mm for the months so far

System for next week looks like staying mostly north of the southeast, so part B might be cancelled. Perhaps a decent low about this time next week.

What are Majors?

[snowfall]

5mm overnight.

Not a lot, but it's at least something. That takes us to a grand total of 5.4mm for the month. Lean times... for August last year we had 149mm.

[StratoBendigo]

4mm overnight. Freshens things up. The next week could deliver a reasonable amount of rain to keep things ticking over. I'm thinking 15mm here over the next week.

Nice to get colder weather tbh.

[Gordon]

What are Majors?

I suspect he means the major (and therefore higher elevation) ski resorts like Buller, Hotham etc. as opposed to the likes of Lake Mountain, Mt Buffalo, etc. The former have picked up several centimetres of fresh snow this morning, which they desperately need (and more if they can get it!).

(Incidentally, a mate sent me a pic of his place with a nice cover of snow at 400m asl in the north of NZ's South Island - at least someone is getting some low snow love )

[Macedonian]

Got it. Thanks Gordon.

[Gordon]

Just outside the date range, but looking like a proper cold outbreak later next week. One to watch, and possibly worth a new thread if the models hold for a couple more days.

[Macedonian]

I looked this morning and YR.No was giving us a very cold Thurs and Friday. Five cm of snow and a zero degree max but now the whole shebang has vanished!
Too far out anyhow. Talk to me about it on Wednesday and I might believe it.

[StratoBendigo]

A cold and overcast 12c max here today.

A bit of a wandering cold pool in the mix this Monday. GFS is still very keen about Aug 17-18th. Probably not much rain though. El-Nino-esque.

[hillybilly]

Was a non event in southern TAS yesterday, but picking up a clipper front tonight with a few heavy showers. Do need it.

Next highs ridging in but will push some fairly cool air over us the next 72 hours. Suspect some heavy showers, though slow moving and hit miss. Some snow in the alps.

Progs have flattened out next week. Geez that pattern just keeps repeating over and over this year. Gales in the 40 and 50 latitude belt, but most action running south of Oz. Mildish temps, perhaps just cool enough for snow.


Yep… majors is short hand for Buller, Falls and Hotham. Often used in the snow community. Makes the others, Baw Baw, Lake Mt, Buffalo etc.

[hillybilly]

Good to see some solid showers round Vic on Saturday. Bit of a creeping dry happening atm, as the El Niño establishes, so any rain is good rain. Bit patchier down in Tas, but with just shy of 2mm for the day at our place in Howden and about 5mm for the event.

Cool few days then some westerly gales. Next system looks pretty El Niño like with heap of rain for western Tas, but not much inland for Vic. Very gusty winds. Could well see some unusual warmth in about a week. Will see if that sticks.

[snowfall]

12mm here yesterday evening. A thick fog also rolled in on the southerly, which has been so rare this winter, but something that normally happens regularly in other years.

[hillybilly]

Cracking frost here this morning. Looks like another tonight.

Progs quite chilly for late in the week, but system is a bit moisture starved so mainly showers. New thread time.