Warming up to early season heat possibly followed by rain: Late September to early October

[hillybilly]

Steady warming trend in the week ahead, peaking at possible early season records around the start of October. Grand Final day will be close to record warm, then warmer again into next week.

Potential for significant rain in about a week, though details will matter a lot. Progs are pretty jumpy on the details.

[StratoBendigo]

GFS and GEM forecast models certainly look optimistic for rain next week. EC reckons Eastern Vic might get a bit, but nothing in the West.

Something to generate interest.

[stevco123]

I'm Currently in Mildura and surrounds. Very green, and lush, even 150km past Mildura towards Broken Hill. The desert looks healthy with plenty of shrubs. No doomsday scenario just yet like some media will have you believe, and here's hoping for a mild El Nino, which it certainly looks like being for now.

[hillybilly]

Progs wiggle but still pretty consistent at least til Monday or Tuesday. Saturday looks a bit hotter. Might crack 30C in Melbourne. Sunday a touch cooler. Quite a split for Tuesday between GFs which makes a run a the mid to high 30s for most of Vic and EC which is more like mid 20s. Lot depends on how the developing low amplifies. EC has the warm air advection further north.

We sneaked a welcome 2mm here yesterday and a light frost this morning. TAS will again largely miss the heat this time

Steveco not surprised that area looks good. Three years of La Niña promotes the growth of desert plants, with a typical boom bust pattern. That’s why the fire outlook for a lot of Oz has increased risk because there is so much fuel.

[hillybilly]

We got a frost this morning. Might sneak another tomorrow morning. Just light but still welcome.

For the mainland warmer air starts moving in, with warm conditions in the north for Wednesday becoming widespread Friday and mostly hot for Saturday. Looks to me like it will fall just below the record for grand final day (would guess about 29C in the city).

Bit of a sneaky front for Sunday. Next week is a fair split between the models with GFS giving record heat into the 40s in northwest while EC flattens the pressure gradient and bombs a low in bass strait

[StratoBendigo]

Forecast models seem to be firming up on a significant rain event for much of the State next week.

Could be over 25mm here.

[hillybilly]

Mild 18C here today. Tomorrow looks similar. Slowly warming up now in Vic ahead of a pretty hot weekend for September. Melbourne might well sneak up to 30C. Progs for next week are wild. Will wait to see if they stick. Progs flip from record heat potentially into the 40s in the Mallee on Tuesday to a huge rain event on Thursday. Crazy flip.

Record heat in WA today with lots of records falling. Perth, Perth Ap, and Geraldton among those sites breaking long run records. The airmasses we are currently cooking up are extraordinary atm. Summer will be interesting .

[Gordon]

Been away most of the last couple of weeks, so a struggle to post anything meaningful. Cool to mild here while I was gone; nothing noteworthy except a dry second half of the month.

Now EC and GFS want to give us 75-100mm next week, plus icy temps . ACCESS pretty bullish too. Surely not?

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Surely not….
Need a couple more days of this weather pattern,
Overcast and mild.
Few trenches in back yard needing to be re filled..
4 days may cut it…

[StratoBendigo]

Quite a bit of convergence in the forecast models for next week now. I reckon it's on. (Bass Strait looks wild)

30-50mm here seems likely, and a decent dump of snow too on the Alps... (After the season ended early)

[snowfall]

It's looking promising, especially with convergence this far out, but still need to see how things progress over the weekend. I really hope it happens, as we're very much in need of decent rain here now. September will be finishing with just 18mm.

[jimmyay]

This September has been so warm, average maxes in Melb have not only been warmer than 2022 (by 4 degrees) but September 2023’s maxes have also been warmer than October and November 2022!

[Gordon]

Seem to be in a bit of a cool 'bubble' here, have only cracked 20C once so far this September (on the 13th), and then just barely.

Should do again Saturday and possibly tomorrow, although suspect we will fall well short of anything exceptional. (Don't have long-term figures for Gordon, but Ballarat's September record, set in 1961, is 27.9C.)

Meanwhile, models are only intensifying next week's rain .

[hillybilly]

Warm 21C here today. Should get some showers here tomorrow with a sneaky front, while the the mainland starts to warm. Shocking heat back in WA. A number of near 100 years stations broke september records last night by 3-4C. Crazy numbers.

Progs next week all over the shop. Somewhere will get good falls. Almost everywhere will see warmth, possibly with early seasons records. Then goes cooler. Beyond that bit of dart board stuff atm

[Wilko]

It's looking promising, especially with convergence this far out, but still need to see how things progress over the weekend. I really hope it happens, as we're very much in need of decent rain here now. September will be finishing with just 18mm.

Yes looking good across some models...long way to go for certainty though !
Fingers crossed as we need the rain

[Macedonian]

Check out what YR forecasts for my mountain next Thursday! Hope it happens. This early heat and dry is horrible.
Gordon, I've only had one day over 20 as well. Only once since early April have we had a 20+ day. I often have to wait until into October for a 20.

Screenshot_20230928-203110_Chrome.jpg (390.28 KiB) Viewed 1125 times

[Adam38]

Very dry in Bacchus Marsh! Looks like summer already… currently a warm and very dry 25c, 15%RH and -4c DP… Unless my weather station is wrong, that is very dry for September.

[StratoBendigo]

Warm and dry today. November weather.

In fact this will be our hottest ever September and the first one with a mean max over 20c.

As for next week - Wow! 18z GFS is off-the-chain with over 100mm here, and 170mm around Gisborne/Melton.

EC thinks it'll be more an Eastern Vic system. Going to be crazy times.

[hillybilly]

Crazy dry airmass over parts of VIC atm. DPs locally touching -10C even on the flats. That is seriously unusual. Lucky not much wind around as those values are low enough to cause serious concerns for fire weather even with temps in the 20s. Intererating to see how warm its go today. Seems to be above the expected maxs in quite a few places. Guess the record to watch is the hottest Grand final on record and the hottest NRL final on record.

Quite a contrast down here in Tas with a rainy morning. Mostly light but last about four hours. Most spots only got 1 or 2mm but out to 10mm in the hills near Hobart and beaver falls out west. Tomorrow and Sunday look like a bit of a repeat here with sneaky fronts.

[StratoBendigo]

1987 takes the cake for hottest AFL Grand Final (30.7c)

Meanwhile, if 00z German forecast model is realized for next week, Melbourne and suburbs could be in real big trouble.