Warming up to early season heat possibly followed by rain: Late September to early October

[StratoBendigo]

Potentially a record diurnal temperature range here today.
Min of 0.9c, Max of 27.7c

[Macedonian]

That's a massive range.
It was -3.2° at Trentham yesterday morning.

[hillybilly]

Guess almost 50:50 Melbourne will crack 30C today. Would think the barren southwest plains around Avalon will head into the low to mid 30s. Then 37C for Sydney tomorrow for the hottest NRL grand final day on record. That max is just a degree below the October records and would have smashed the september record if it came one day early. Crazy stuff.

Progs next week have a big spread but generally agree on a big big rain event for the southeast. Mostly focused on the eastern third of Victoria, but enough runs push it back into central to mark them a concern. Some of the totals being thrown up are bonkers.

[Gordon]

Potentially a record diurnal temperature range here today.
Min of 0.9c, Max of 27.7c

Amazing! A range of 2C-22C here.

[snowfall]

It's looking like a predominantly eastern Vic system. Some of the forecast rain totals are intense, especially in parts of the north east and east Gippsland (which has been very dry). There's much more uncertainty about how far west any decent rain totals will extend. Will obviously need to see some more runs - maybe it will pull back west a bit or maybe it will shunt further east. Unfortunately, so far, EC seems pretty set on confining it eastward. Other models are moving around a bit more. At this stage, I reckon it's pretty marginal for areas west of Melbourne (the dominant climate drivers won't be helping) but just hoping for some adjustments - will be interesting to see the next runs today and tomorrow.

Currently warm and very windy here! Should get into the high 20s today, but not really the best of days with the fan-forced oven effect. Yesterday, on the other hand, a max of 25c, sunny and very calm - if it were not September I would have said it was a classic summer's day...

[hillybilly]

Couple of records yesterday at odds spots including Frankston. Nothing too significant for VIC, but heaps of records back in WA where some stations have broken their hottest night or day temps multiple times in the month. Melbourne looks to have equaled it’s warmest September on record and had its driest on record. Temp record will come down to the second decimal place if my maths is correct Bonkers how warm and dry it’s been in parts of VIC the past few months.

Couple more days of this weather to come, then finally a proper change. System looks wet for southeast NSW and the eastern third of VIC. Melbourne sits in the strong gradient zone, so could land anywhere in the 10 to 80mm range. Latest EC has totals peaking around 150 to 200mm in the hills north of Bairnsdale. Would think a bit of flooding with that, though the very dry lead in would probably take the edge off. Lot depends on intensity. Tides are pretty low this week so won’t be much in the way of storm surges.

System looks a bust here for TAS. Typically showery stuff our west and easterlies might get the far northeast corner, but in between not much. Progs could always change… have fingers crossed that we sneak some decent.

[Tassiedave]

Crazy 9.20am temps in Tas for 1st October Dunalley 23.6, Hobart 21.7, Swansea 22.5, Friendly Beaches 24.0, Launceston 17.6

[StratoBendigo]

Hmmmm, I'm not very optimistic for rain this week now. All looks to be happening in Eastern Vic. We might miss out altogether.

[samboz]

Today a bushfire smoke plume appeared on Bairnsdale weather radar approx 90km's long and not clearing until approx north of Lakes Entrance.
The bushfire started about 13km NNW of Briagolong this morning and Vic Emergency issued an Immediate Evacuation of the small township which is still posted by them. Fortunately, this morning the prevailing NNW moved more to the NW and the town remained safe. If the Emergency Vic diagram of what appears to be a "fire perimeter" -the fire is now about 12km X 6km in size, however, cannot confirm that diagram contents.
Low rainfall over last three months (in vicinity of 50mm) and todays high winds the catalysts.

Edit, just checked maps, fire possibly far bigger (according to VIC EMERGENCY fire perimeter (?) diagram), not rectangular but approx 18km West to East X 10km South to North, that's bldy huge if accurate. RH was sub 20 early this morning - it certainly put some smoke up which at the early stages pre midday was shown on radar crossing the coast not far from LOCH SPORT.

[samboz]

From VICEMERGENCY - Close
Bushfire
9Km North Of Briagolong
Current status Not Yet Under Control
Last updated Unknown
Vehicles responding 12 vehicles responding
Size 4222.00 Ha.

Arithmetic doesn't gell with their diagram, oh well time will tell, tomorrows weather kinder, Tues late - some timely rain.

[hillybilly]

Some nasty winds down here today with a couple of showers. 2mm in the gauge. It briefly snowed on the Mt this arvo. Quite a change from the low 20s we had at 9am.

Crazy heat in NSW with lots of mid to high 30s. Would have been records across most of the state if today happened one day earlier

As for VIC. Crazy day. That 5000 hectare fire run is quite shocking. So much for the Victoria I knew as a kiddy where the September holidays were often cold wet and windy and fires were mostly a mid summer to March thing.

One more warm to hot one then things change for VIC and eastern Tas. Models toying with some massive falls for Gippsland. Could get very hasty if runs like the latest GFS which has a big area of over 200mm verifies. Melbourne looks to do well, though a big gradient from Geelong to the Yarra Ranges so details matter a lot.

[stevco123]

First September in about 15-20 years that has been this warm. The last few years have been quite cool and normal. Not sure what the panic is?

Anyway, cold night coming up. Spring at its best.

It is the wettest part of the year and this upcoming event to me is quite surprising in that we are in an el nino.

Here's hoping for some good rain

[StratoBendigo]

One very nice looking cold front South of WA today. Lots of cold air behind this one.

The forecast seems to have firmed for 20-30mm here this week. Will be very welcome rain here and could be good finishing rains for some winter crops.

[StratoBendigo]

Worth noting that Sept 2023 was the driest September on record in Australia since 1900. Next closest was Sept 1902.

[hillybilly]

First September in about 15-20 years that has been this warm. The last few years have been quite cool and normal. Not sure what the panic is?

Last September this warm was ten years ago, which was the hottest on record. 23 of the past 26 Septembers have been warmer than average. This has included the four warmest. For the globe you’d need to be about fifty years old to have seen a cool September. September 2023 was the warmest by miles - the warmest on record and the largest margin by which we’ve broken a record so a record record….

Also Australia’s driest month for any month on record in about 1500 months. Driest September for Melbourne and driest July to September. You can’t make this up. Records being broken all over the place.

Now comes the flip side to all the heat with heavy rain which will quite possibly break records at some spots.

[jimmyay]

Impressive stats for September.


What time do we think the rain will arrive in Melbourne tomorrow?

[Petros]

Yesterday was I reckon, the windiest day here for 20 years, started in the morning as a howling NW'ly, then veered to the west with a sustained gale force wind from the West that lasted through to the late arvo. 31C in morning, 21C by 6pm. The Briagalong fire took off at 10am, much like the Sarsfield fire did during the big fires 3 years back, plenty of cumulous clouds generated over it during the early arvo. Amazing only one house burnt.

After an extremely dry - but cold - winter here, a fire, .....then typical for Australia, we need to gear up for a moderate flood down the Macalister/Thompson/Latrobe on the dairy farms around here.

Average of models available to me now, show 72-132mm for Maffra next few days - a pity this event hasn't its own thread.

[Gordon]

Comfortably our driest September (27 years of records) with only 35mm - vs previous driest of 45mm in 2015.

When checking, just noticed our October record of 6.5mm in 2006 . Hopefully the rest of this week will keep that one in place!

[Gordon]

Average of models available to me now, show 72-132mm for Maffra next few days - a pity this event hasn't its own thread.

Well worthwhile to start one Petros?

[hillybilly]

Yep, reckon. New thread. Happy to start it.

Wasn’t confident it was going to stick but pleased to say it has.