The Australian Weather Forum

Still think something fairly decent on the cards early-mid next week.

Other peoples thoughts?

Still a long way to go John, however it has been on my radar for a few days now. Below average temps and plenty of rainfall via a series of front looks the most likely scenario. At this stage, Gippsland would be the big winners.

That's all I'll say until Sat/Sun :lol:

Thanks for getting this up again John

I am not too sure about next Tuesday. GFS does hint at perhaps patchy rain on and north of the ranges, EC also looking unstable for northern parts but southern areas generally only getting isolated showers in my opinion at this stage. Of course could all change.

I am more interested in EC in the latter part of it's run. It has a significant frontal system approaching Victoria on the 9th and it coming through with the close movement of a low southwest of Tasmania on the 10th. That is a while out, but something to keep an eye on as well.

Something definitely brewing next Thursday onwards. Nice low developing in the Northern bight and looks to tap into some decent moisture.

I think there will be decent rainfall come Tuesday into Wednesday with a front sliding over S VIC but it does look more favourable for a decent rain event later next week. This could provide our next opportunity for thunderstorms and a bit more warmth if the system cuts off and we go into N winds.

10mm possible Tuesday at this time.

Well Terry Ryan from the BOM likes the look of Tuesday saying there may be useful falls in the south and smaller amounts in the North with the bulk of the rain for the SW of the state with that band. What he says is also demonstrated on the 4 day BOM rainfall charts.

I must be missing something for Tuesday, because personally I cannot seeing it being that fancy. I can only see patchy rain at best, but mostly isolated showers.

Later next week still looking ok ... but models chopping and changing of course.

It still looks alright to me. EC has practically no rain here for the entire period to next Friday but I'm not worried about that. It's happened many times this year that EC has had nothing progged but then comes back on board very late. Quite frankly, I can't see why EC would be progging a very significant and slow moving LWT over us and sharpening up with the passage of fronts from the south and at the same time have no rain in the outlook when only yesterday it was showing quite a bit of rain. Very strange indeed. In short I would disregard the models atm until we get to within a few days out.

GFS still looking pretty good.

Models still look preety good to me early-mid next week EC has 22mm here Tuesday and GFS has generally 15-35mm through most southern and mountain areas

Well now I think Tuesday will be alright. At this stage I would probably say quite an extensive rain band extending from the west during the morning with scattered showers to follow.

EDIT: Or maybe not. Not quite sure actually still.

any rains good rain, unless we talk about crops?

EC continuing its spindle of good rains for Vic, this Tuesday for central/eastern Vic and then later into Thursday with another low passing to the south of the state, likely to see scattered showers then. The high though that is slowly moving eastwards [but still west of the state at the end of ECs' run] is sure to bring us some nice fine and sunny weather once it gets here, and no doubt temps warming up.

Late week looking good as well still, both GFS and EC show this. But my interests are raised as the next high gets pushed over us, seems to be some moisture being pumped down towards us ahead of the next trough. But before that, some warm to hot weather likely as the high moves over us.

Well it appears that things could be going in our favour for a stormy third week of the month with increasing temps and humidity from the north and east around this strong high. We must have a trough dig it's heals in from the NNW into the state and become stationary for this to happen and the position of that ridge coming in looks to support a theory.

I would suspect with the trends of years past that this is a likely outcome. Fingers crossed for then but before that - a significant chance of seeing 30-50mm across many regions of the south and mountain VIC this week.

Models still jumping all over the place. GFS and EC both agree with the Monday/Tuesday system so that's all looking good. The following system for Friday though, GFS has upgraded massively but EC still seems to hold back, at least for inland areas. Personally I can see two major systems ahead with 10-30mm likely with the first system for central areas and around 20-50mm for the second. West of the state might miss out on the best falls this time. NE ranges in the firing line for the highest totals.

Also, models hinting at very cool temperatures with the passage of the fronts, even enough to be classified as cold on the ranges.

Hi Andrew. Was hoping to meet you up in your neck of the woods today at ASWA.. maybe next time???

Anyhow I tend to agree with your forecast there. The passage of the fronts will allow a surge of colder air into the atmosphere which will keep temps well below the December average in the south. But what this will subsequently do is set us up for the week following if any moisture of trough/low feature develops from a heat pool over the inland and swings southeast into our neck of the woods. In times gone by, this has been a big producer of signficant thunderstorms as the colder air in the uppers hasn't had sufficient time to average out again to regular values.

Just a point of thought I guess, things seem to be tilting that way proceeding this sequence of westerly winds with slack isobaric flow and low pressure deepening from the NW.

Later this week still looking good with a surge of colder air and showers.

The next high is real slow moving, and expecting fine weather from Monday across most of Victoria. Wednesday and Thursday of next week are looking to be quite hot at this stage, temperatures in the 30's possibly getting to 40 at some locations ahead of the next system associated with the LWT. Interesting to see both EC and GFS showing a tropical cyclone off the NW coast, so if all plays out right and as mentioned in my above post; moisture should be pumped towards the SE and will interact with the LWT. We should see quite numerous thunderstorms and some good rainfall with the system as it moves by. Something to keep an eye on.

hey I was the first to mention that Cyclone! I think i posted it in the forecast page!

Haha, well done Tony! It is increasingly looking like a TC will form up NW Australia and be very slow moving for a while. Not a certainty yet but does look promising!

Regarding extened outlook rainfall, EC does hint at quite a strong frontal system and trough to come through western Victoria overnight Wednesday or Thursday morning, crossing central parts of the state during the remainder of the day. So if this was the case, any heat that I was talking about above would not happen and it would be less severe on Wednesday, only 30's across southern parts, high 30's in the north.

On the other hand GFS is indicating warmer weather with a moisture infeed from the north [from the cyclone/low] thus leading to more humid and unsettled conditions with showers and thunderstorms. EC does not have the moisture infeed.

A lot of changing on the cards though with models, particularly with a cyclone on the progs, very changeable when they are there so eyes glued on models from now, something is brewing for later next week whether or not its big or small I'm not sure, and severer heat may in fact return if EC turns out to be wrong with no front and just a blocking high, just troughiness [though cannot complain about storms either].

Definitely looking like huge potential for some decent rain for SE Oz for the rest of the month. SST are still above average, cyclone looks like forming next week to provide good moisture infeed through the inland. And latest indicators are for the MJO to be around in the next fortnight too so well worth keeping an eye on the Top End for lots of activity, hopefully managing to move down our neck of the woods for something similar to the late october storm outbreak. The key too all this is to continue of course to get the upper level troughs moving through otherwise we wont be getting anything substantial.