Yes Geoff, Access and Yeah Nah seem to want to give us westies something for a couple of runs now, although I'd feel more optimistic if GFS agreed! There does seem to be a lot of moisture gathering over the rest of the country.
Starting to see some convergence in the forecast models for some in-feed of moisture producing decent rainfall totals across much of Vic this time next weekend.
Might just bump this thread as EC and at least some other models are going for a major rain event over the Christmas period, basically Christmas Eve to Boxing Day. EC has a stalling LWT approaching us during this time. At first this will mean a couple of pretty hot days as the high stalls out in the Tasman but the end result will be a slow moving upper trough dragging in moisture over several days and dumping large totals, especially over the southern half of the state.
Are some of the models showing a large low developing over Tasmania December 28th and 29th? Could this lead to substantial rain over Tassie and Victoria?
This morning's GFS run looks very interesting. There is a real possibility that a large Jetstream cloudmass (associated with TC Narelle perhaps?) off the WA coast may end up colliding with a cool airmass from the South next week bringing good rains to Victoria...
Any experts care to enlighten us as to why rainfall in the SE has dropped off so spectacularly? Are the conditions the same as 1999-2009?? No significant rainfall in the models for the remainder of the month by the looks.
I'm no expert StoneFree but I know a gert big blocking upper level high pressure system has been sat over the centre of the country for weeks, stopping any moisture from the tropics getting through to us. The waters around the west of Australia are very warm and without the blocking high I think it's fair to say we would've had much more rain than we have had so far. It looks like a temporary situation to me, and with the monsoon trough now moving down at last we can hope for much more moisture infeed in the coming weeks.
Some signs that the current block over the continent might be breaking down later next week. EC model is quite upbeat about significant rain on Australia Day, especially for Northern and Eastern Vic....
I think the monsoon needs to reset in Feb for us to have any chance of rainfall in SE Australia. It looks like we will be left with relying on fronts and sharp troughs, but with this persistent upper high over the region, there will be little rain. Hot days to continue for most.
I don't think I've ever seen such a persistent upper high over the continent. Except for perhaps March 2008 and August 2011.
Yet history as shown that when they do break down, they can do so spectacularly (i.e Feb 1973). Might have to wait a while for the MJO to come around again though.
It's been fascinating (in a morbid sort of a way) to watch system after system form in the models a week or so out, and then vanish. For rainfall (as opposed to temperature) I'm almost at the point of ignoring GFS, ACCESS & EC for anything more than a couple of days out, which after several years of model watching has proved a hard habit to break!
Will be interesting to see what the NCC offers us with their update tomorrow. A typically shaky effort for Vic in their last forecast - average rainfall for the three months Jan, Feb & March. It's going to have to come down hard in Feb & March if that one is to hold! (Edit - NCC still going for about average Feb-April rainfall in today's update.)
(Btw been up the Snowy Mtns the last few days & was reminded what a proper thunderstorm looks like driving through Bredbo yesterday evening. Got hammered by a black cored monster with borderline damaging hail, big winds and what must have been inches of rain (no weather station so I can't verify the latter.) So these things still exist, just a little further north!)
Looking like another run of dry coming up with no real change in weather patterns from the last couple of months. Only real difference looks to be most of the extreme heat has gone from the centre, well compared to what it was anyway. What it will take to break this pattern will have to be one hell of a pattern. Seems we are in weather Groundhog Day
MJO likely to move into phases 2 and 3 over the next fortnight, high ridge on the way south according to long term model trends allowing for E/NE flow for several days starting from next Monday which should start to introduce more lower level moisture into the atmosphere. High ridge moving south also allows the moisture from the monsoon to spread over the continent. It's a classic setup for an extended period of rain and thundery weather at this time of year.
GFS and EC both showing rain at this stage after the 13th. GFS has widespread accumulations. I've only looked at my area with EC and it's saying 15mm on the 14th with a few showers on the two previous days as well. One to watch as this is all based on the general circulations and atmospheric patterns, so IMO the moisture should be there and the instability should be there, but we'll just have to wait and see as usual.
Haha that'd would be right.....heading to New Zealand on the 15th! Rain while I am on hols and then flat out as soon as I get back. Ah well a feb rain would allow just enough time for all the summer weeds to come up and lots of chemical to be sprayed out...... Still gotta happen though.
EC has completely dropped it, GFS still has it. I expect a frustrating period of model watching in the days ahead as the models are unlikely to settle on anything until the pattern becomes more concrete. IMO I still expect moisture and instability even with the current EC scenario, which shows a decent trough moving through towards the end of the outlook period. Perhaps we need to wait until the upper levels destabilise again which might be in the latter third of the month.
Significant moisutre is conitnuing to spill into the country from the NW with the Indian Ocean trending favourable for further heavy rain events over the winter and perhaps spring time periods. I think we are entering a much wetter phase over the nation and could see rivalling rain events to that of 2010.
Some further information for sure coming out about this over the coming weeks.
Also watching the Pacific for La Nina conditons into the spring and summer. Stand a 50/50 chance at this time.
The NW cloudbands are really starting to crank up a bit now. Anticipate near record rainfall over parts of NW WA and NT over the coming month translating southeast and giving us large scale rain events, with decent falls for the whole state. I think far eastern areas will see the lightest falls if there are no ECL wrap ups.
Otherwise start preparing for flooding in Spring and Summer is my forecast.