TC Laurence. December 10th-23rd 2009

[Blackee]

WOW!!!
Not sure if Troughton Island' obs are correct however, I will post them!!

8am WST
Wind speed 128km/h or 69kt
Wind gust 187km/h or 101kt

Baro pressure dropped from 992.6 @ 730 to 982.9 @ 8am.

[Blackee]

Looks as if the obs were right. Eye is currently smack bang over Troughton Island.

[Jake Smethurst]

Currently a category 3 system. Strengthened quickly.

[Blackee]

BOM 4 day chart tipping Laurence to make landfall within 18 hours and then head back back out to the Indian Ocean towards the weekend. A compact yet fiesty system!!

[Jake Smethurst]

True mate.

I know that it's common sense to look at the latest Track maps and Advices from the BoM, but really they might be confusing some people currently as they have 2 different track maps current, one from the NT BoM and one from the WA BoM. Looks as if the WA BoM are taking over responsibility now, but still looking at the warning page, quite confusing!

Here is the latest Track Map : http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

Here is the latest TC Advice: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24100.txt

EDIT: And in saying that, they fix it all up ...

[johnno]

Lawrence will move south before heading back West late in the week and back out to sea in response to an Upper ridge developing over Central WA and that deflects the cyclone in a Westward direction again. The cyclone will eventually (Early next week) cross the coast again as the Upper ridge weakens and move slowly SE hopefully catching up with the next LWT and getting to us mid to late next week.

[Blackee]

Latest Chart and advice is out as at 1810 WST.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 34
Issued at 6:10 pm WST on Tuesday, 15 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island,
extending inland to include Drysdale River and Mt Barnett.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cockatoo Island to Beagle Bay.

At 5:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 3 was estimated to be
160 kilometres west southwest of Kalumburu and
125 kilometres northeast of Kuri Bay and
moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but intense tropical cyclone moving
southwest close to the Kimberley coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 210
kilometres per hour are being experienced on the coast close to the system
centre and are expected to extend along the coast to Kuri Bay overnight.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend further along the coast,
reaching Cockatoo and Koolan Islands during Wednesday and possibly to Beagle Bay
later on Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region, extending
into the western Kimberley overnight. Daily rainfall totals in excess of 100mm
are possible near the coast with totals decreasing further inland.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kuri Bay and Mitchell Plateau
should be taking action.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Koolan Island and Cockatoo
Island should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in Kalumburu are advised that wind danger has passed but you
need to take care to avoid any danger caused by the heavy rain.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.6 degrees South 125.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour and weakening
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 966 hectoPascals

[Blackee]

[Blackee]

TC Laurence is now a category 4, Severe Tropical Cyclone. Despite his size, he is packing a serious punch. I suppose SST's around 33c would help anything intensify!!!
Main facts:
Moving SW @ 11km/h
Gusts up to 230km/h
954 hPa

I am still expecting Laurence to travel a bit more west than south/south west and impacting between Broome and Derby sometime tomorrow.

[Blackee]

Laurence continues to strengthen in ideal conditions.

At 5:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 4 was estimated to be
40 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and
125 kilometres northeast of Cockatoo Island and
moving southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but intense tropical cyclone having
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 260 kilometres per hour close to the
cyclone centre. As Laurence tracks to the southwest near the Kimberley coast
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may be experienced at Kuri Bay during Wednesday morning.

.Central pressure......... 944 hectoPascals

[Jake Smethurst]

This little beauty has given us a surprise then mate. Cat 4, quite a strong system. The only plus is that because it's so small the real strong winds won't extend too far from the cyclone as if it was a big one, but if it passes right near or over you, bamn!

[Blackee]

It is very well organised, albeit small in size (as you mentioned Jake).
Latest update some miniutes ago, now has Laurence as a Category 5 system (amazing development!!!)

At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 5 was estimated to be
35 kilometres west northwest of Kuri Bay and
220 kilometres north northeast of Derby and
moving southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but very intense tropical cyclone
having VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 285 kilometres per hour close to the
cyclone centre. VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts are possible on the coast near Kuri
Bay during today.

Central pressure......... 933 hectoPascals

Question without notice, what is the lowest hPa recorded for a cyclone? 933hPa is bloody low!!!!!

[johnno]

I think 890hpa in near Australia Wes but not sure.


Sure is a beauty can't recall in my lifetime a cyclone of cat 5 off the Nw coast before Christmas! And we are in an El Nino which usually means even less chance of happening

[Jake Smethurst]

OMG! Amazing, just amazing. It is strengthening and now a Cat 5 system. Definetley got BoM and us even by surprise [well me anyway ]

One thing is for sure, this El Nino is not a normal one!

[Blackee]

I think BOM were expecting a landfall well before now. Having a compact system moving over warm (ie. 33c) waters will only allow it to intensify the longer it stays over water.

[Karl Lijnders]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 40
Issued at 12:00 pm WST on Wednesday, 16 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Beagle Bay and
adjacent inland parts.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga and extending
inland towards Fitzroy Crossing.

At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 5 was estimated to be
55 kilometres southwest of Kuri Bay and
170 kilometres north northeast of Derby and
moving south southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but very intense tropical cyclone
having VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 285 kilometres per hour close to the
cyclone centre. VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts are possible on the coast south of
Kuri Bay during this afternoon and evening.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend further southwest along
the coast, reaching Cockatoo and Koolan Islands during this afternoon and
evening. Should the centre pass close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible
during the afternoon and evening. GALES, and possibly DESTRUCTIVE winds may
extend to Derby and Beagle Bay early Thursday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north and west Kimberley. Daily
rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible near the coast with totals
decreasing further inland.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near the communities of Koolan Island and Cockatoo
Island need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Cape Leveque, One Arm Point,
Djarindjin, Lombadina and Derby should be taking action.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near Mitchell Plateau and Kuri Bay wind and
storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers
caused by damage.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 124.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 934 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Wednesday 16 December.Cyclone
advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[Karl Lijnders]

Kimberley on red alert as cyclone approaches
Wednesday December 16, 2009 - 15:20 EDT

Cyclone Laurence is bearing down on the northern Western Australia coast, bringing with it winds of up to 285 kilometres per hour.

The small but intense cyclone has been upgraded to a category 5 system and is now located 55 kilometres south-west of Kuri Bay and 170 kilometres north-north-east of Derby.

Cyclone Laurence is moving at 11 kilometres per hour and has brought heavy rains and destructive winds to communities and cattle stations across the north Kimberley.

Linda Pearson from Theda Station says they have had 175 millimetres of rain in the last 24 hours.

"We've got water above our lawns, our septics tanks are flooding, our roads are now rivers and our driveway is a river," she said.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns very destructive wind gusts are possible on the coast south of Kuri Bay during this afternoon and evening.

It says the communities of Koolan Island and Cockatoo Island are on red alert and need to go to shelter immediately.

A yellow alert applies for Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Djarindjin, Lombadina and Derby.

- ABC

© ABC 2009

[Anthony Violi]

No way is he going East through the guts...well not yet anyway. Will be dragged down our way if anything.

[Anthony Violi]

And without boasting, EC now brings Laurence thru to us next week. The Eastward track is fanciful simply because by the time it moves the ridge will be established in the Tasman, so logically it can't go over the top of the ridge as it's Easterly winds there...so as I alluded to will track SE with the mid level trough and deliver an awesome event somete in the next fortnight.

[Blackee]

Great call Anth!!
All points to a very very interesting Chrismas week of weather.