Victoria: Heatwave conditions moving S - Jan 7-11 2010

[Karl Lijnders]

Looking for a minima of around 32C Tuesday morning sometime Rhys. Welcome aboard

[droughtbreaker]

26.4C here. Humidity dropped a few DP degrees late afternoon but has now stabilised again.

No curing out here, for one all the grass around and on the mountain is lawn grass that doesn't die back in summer if you get a lot of rain like we have had so far this summer. Jackson's Creek valley was green after all that rain from the storms. Other parts of the district though on the basalt plain are probably about 60% cured so there is some grassland danger there, probably similar to Ballarat's atm. (Which is only 7).

Some very dense cirrus coming over in patches atm from the west and some middle level cloud mixed in. Indicative of moisture levels rising in the middle layers as we speak.

[droughtbreaker]

A record that may be worth keeping an eye on tomorrow is Melbourne's overnight low on Monday night/Tuesday morning, with that hot stagnant airmass still looking around 25C at 850 hpa around 10pm on Monday night and the cool change not due to well after the 9am cut-off point on Tuesday I wouldn't be surprised to see the January record of 28.8C under threat...as long of course we hotter then that 9am tomorrow morning! Alot of factors would have to come into play to break the record, just goes to show how incredibly hot the all-time record of 30.5C back in 1902 was!

Nice one. Welcome to the forum. Definite chance for that record but of course as you said everything would have to fall into place. Also worth noting that it should be cloudy all Monday night and Tuesday which will lock heat in as well.

[dagget]

26 degrees here now and cooling off quite nicley, house still at 28 thought

[Rhys_34]

Thanks for the greeting droughtbreaker and Karl, it's great to be here and to be able to read everyone's thoughts on the weather and also contribute on occasion

[AUSSKY]

Welcome Daz!!

Central ranges has had enough rain over the past few weeks to make lighting a fire rather difficult...everything is either green or incredibly short......so just treating it as a normal high fire danger day here too...but admit to filling both of Tango's ponds right up and also both the bird troughs to the top and have got the gutter plugs out.......hopefully I don't have to use them this year.

dagget - you really are going to have to hurry up and move.....21.3C over here atm.....

[adon]

Check out the sat loop. The cloud in WA/SA is all rotating.....the wrong way! Looks like it is circulating a high???? What's the go?

[AUSSKY]

There's a 500 - 300hPa high over that part of WA which is why everything that gets up to that level is going 'the wrong way'......

[droughtbreaker]

Still probably not 100% on the fine details of reading the models but GFS seems to have dropped the temps (surface not 850T) another degree or two in the latest run. Now going for around 40C in Melbourne and 37C here for a max. Correct me if I'm wrong though because I could be reading things wrong.

I still reckon Melbourne will get low to mid 40s and high 30s here.

[dagget]

dagget - you really are going to have to hurry up and move.....21.3C over here atm.....

Have to get the house built before the move, end of the year at the earliest I think, cooling down a bit 23 here at the moment, certainly like your weather better though.