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- by Anthony Violi
- Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:57 am
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: September warm wave and troughs 26-28 September
- Replies: 110
- Views: 44281
Apparently its never been warm in late September. And 850 temps are irrelevant, its what transpires on the surface, unless of course you live at 6000 feet above Sea level. It will get to 30 or maybe low 30s in the Nw corner, but nothing near previous temperatures for us here. It will be a normal lat...
- by Anthony Violi
- Fri Sep 21, 2012 5:29 am
- Forum: Climatology Archives
- Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
- Replies: 80
- Views: 72249
No worries Crikey. If you want a forecast for the ENSO, IOD and SST, just go opposite to the models and thats going to be a closer outcome. Im not sure if you have noticed bu the +IOD was brief and seasonal, but its now over and temps have exploded rapidly at the surface through the region, as i sug...
- by Anthony Violi
- Wed Sep 19, 2012 6:51 pm
- Forum: Climatology Archives
- Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
- Replies: 80
- Views: 72249
Good pick up John, and it highlights a problem with the models. How can we pick these things up months beforehand? Simple, because models are told that El nino is king, Co2 is warming the oceans etc etc. Yet we look at these things and can see we are in a cold PDO, most models would not have any clu...
- by Anthony Violi
- Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:36 pm
- Forum: The MET Centre
- Topic: Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia
- Replies: 1084
- Views: 392945
The climate response is going to be massive to the last 6 months. I think we are going to do it all again, the question is will it be biblical like 10/11 or just stock standard massive. I havent seen the planets align like this too often, everything is going to gether all at once again. The main thi...
- by Anthony Violi
- Fri Sep 14, 2012 6:42 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Spring Fronts. Sep 12-14 2012
- Replies: 58
- Views: 23564
Never mind this stuff, just drizzly patches. Some unsettled weather appearing next week which is signs the switch is now coming. However, in a few weeks we could see a very large system brewing with an almighty LWT, its a few weeks away but i have seen the signs for something major. Given by then we...
- by Anthony Violi
- Thu Sep 13, 2012 7:15 pm
- Forum: General Weather Archives
- Topic: Melbourne dams
- Replies: 49
- Views: 45987
Yes and the experts who suggested such nonsense as not enough rain to fill the dams we should have built should be discredited, and dispanded. Lake Eildon, 3 times the size of Thompson, filled in 14 months from almost empty. But thats not even half of it, they have released 1.1Million megalitres the...
- by Anthony Violi
- Thu Sep 13, 2012 4:58 am
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Spring Fronts. Sep 12-14 2012
- Replies: 58
- Views: 23564
Yeah echoing Karl's thoughts, not much to do with El Niño. The Iod is now slightly positive, but this is not too unusual for this time of year. It is the dry season, and the cold air has been consistently drawn up into the ridge all winter and swept NW into Indonesia. So that's why it's dry inland a...
- by Anthony Violi
- Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:50 pm
- Forum: Climatology Archives
- Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
- Replies: 80
- Views: 72249
I just made a new post on the Indian Ocean for the coming season. http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/09/08/indian-ocean-off-the-nw-coast/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Upper 300 metre temp anomaly shows a good deal of warmth through the basin, and more inmportantly Nor...
- by Anthony Violi
- Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:25 pm
- Forum: Climatology Archives
- Topic: 2011 - Global temps on the way down
- Replies: 34
- Views: 30160
And the trend continues. temps are slowly falling and will accelerate once the AMO goes cold. However, this is not what the experts told us would happen. http://i569.photobucket.com/albums/ss134/avioli_2009/PaintImage4206.jpg At the moment we are miles under Scenario C, and thats with Hansen adjusti...
- by Anthony Violi
- Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:04 pm
- Forum: Climatology Archives
- Topic: ACORN dataset...close to the worst in the world.
- Replies: 0
- Views: 11000
New topic which was bought up in the normal threads so we can discuss it here. We have seen how the BOM operate, they had a high quality dataset, but when they were pushed to release vital information, such as the codes to how they made such adjustments, they scrapped the dataset, and released Acorn...
- by Anthony Violi
- Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:10 pm
- Forum: Climatology Archives
- Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
- Replies: 80
- Views: 72249
Certainly very dry through there John. Anyhow, SOI 30 day has dumped to -5.5, with the running 90 day at -5.7. By the end of next week we will lose the big negatives from early August so the 30 day will be down to about 3 if the dailys stay roughly the same. http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/08...
- by Anthony Violi
- Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:36 am
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Victoria: Cold Front - August 28-September 1 2012
- Replies: 120
- Views: 45382
It's flogging down here in Hallam, front has formed a nice heavy rainband and will deliver 20mm through most areas, especially Upper Yarra which will have a flood watch issued later. Luckily it's a dry winter and fronts are a thing of the past, otherwise there would be a mad panic on as Upper Yarra ...