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by hillybilly
Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:34 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
Replies: 10
Views: 646

Another long dry spell for most: March 22-

The dry just rolls on. Not sure what to think of next week. Models are very jump, and can’t decide between 5 and 50mm. Going by the last three months that usually ends in zero mm :? Hope to be completely wrong and that this awful drought affecting the eastern half of TAS finally starts to break.
by hillybilly
Tue Mar 26, 2024 6:11 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
Replies: 10
Views: 646

Another long dry spell for most: March 22-

Still no rain 😩 Been drizzle on the bigger hills around Hobart with some spots sneaking 5-10mm, but nothing on the flats. Looks like it will continue fraction day or two. Looking at Melbourne the driest March and driest February-March records look pretty certain to fall now. That’s pretty significan...
by hillybilly
Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:54 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
Replies: 10
Views: 646

Another long dry spell for most: March 22-

Zero mm here for the front. Progs had 2-10mm. Thats probably it for the month, and headed for a total of about 15mm. Melbournes on track for a March low record, and would guess Hobart and Melbourne are both going to see a February-March record low. Perth is also running record dry though for more th...
by hillybilly
Fri Mar 22, 2024 6:29 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
Replies: 10
Views: 646

Another long dry spell for most: March 22-

Unfortunately another long long dry spell. Not strong highs but just enough to push all the rain north and south of Victoria, and limit rain for TAS to the western half. Temperatures are pretty close to average, perhaps a little above or below. Dry soils mean we will start to see some chilly nights ...
by hillybilly
Thu Mar 21, 2024 6:37 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20
Replies: 21
Views: 1204

Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

Max of 16C here yesterday. Squeezed out a couple of high based coldies. Was a few flurries on the mountain, with better snow around Mt Field and Ben Lomond. Looks like the long dry continues. A few fronts embed in the westerlies will dump in southwest TAS, but besides that could well be more or less...
by hillybilly
Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:39 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20
Replies: 21
Views: 1204

Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

Picked up another mm overnight so nearly 2mm. Cool this morning, almost cold. Should snow on the mountain shortly. Great event for western half and the northern tier of TAS, and a small part of eastern VIC. Otherwise another dud. The SAMs dived negative which will mean low rainfall for much of south...
by hillybilly
Tue Mar 19, 2024 9:33 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20
Replies: 21
Views: 1204

Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

Complete bust here :( 1mm from two brief thundery showers. MTD is about 15mm after 15mm last month. With all the heat it’s so so dry now. Max today was a hot 31C. Not record breaking, but certainly unusual for this time of year. Sharply colder tomorrow, with heavy showers for western TAS, and maybe ...
by hillybilly
Tue Mar 19, 2024 6:44 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20
Replies: 21
Views: 1204

Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

Crazy warm night here for the second half of March. Dipped briefly to 17C but back up to 20C by 6am. It’s really humid with a DP or 16C currently. Expecting quite a lot of convection today for both VIC and TAS, but progs keep it mostly east of Melbourne and for TAS out of the southeast. Could be clo...
by hillybilly
Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:55 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20
Replies: 21
Views: 1204

Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

Hmmm... our hopes for this system seem to be fading with every model run. Synoptics and moisture look good, but for west central Vic at least, the computer says no. Seem to be in a bit of a no rainfall hole lately, with rain to the west, east, north - and even south... but not here. :( Yep. Another...
by hillybilly
Sun Mar 17, 2024 6:32 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20
Replies: 21
Views: 1204

Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

Quite a warm one yesterday, and Sunday and Monday will be warmer again. Quite a few showers and the odd storm for VIC the next two days, mostly focussed in the north. TAS activity will be a bit more sparse. Strong front then for Tuesday. Activity next few days is very patch, but Tuesday to Wednesday...
by hillybilly
Fri Mar 15, 2024 8:33 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20
Replies: 21
Views: 1204

Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

Quite like the look of the progs. Humid trough Monday, strong front Tuesday, follow up from for Wednesday and potential for a nice cool’s outbreak for about Friday. All wiggling a bit in the models, but certainly looks like our best chance in a couple of months. Meanwhile a warm weekend ahead, local...
by hillybilly
Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:00 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20
Replies: 21
Views: 1204

Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

Looks like a slow warm up ahead of a warm couple of days. Stronger front around Tuesday which looks like it might finally produce a better fall of rain. Not too confident on totals, but after weeks with very little anything would be welcome.
by hillybilly
Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:59 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Good to see a bit of rain in southern parts. Not much elsewhere. Waste of a huge plume of moisture.

New thread. Should be a stronger front next week, though progs a bit jumpy on rainfall.
by hillybilly
Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:15 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Looks like VIC might finally get some rain :) though looks like 1-5mm for most. Maybe the odd heavier fall the next two days. Always nice to be reminded it can rain. Down here in Tas the odd shower on the south and east coast, a bit more widespread in the northeast. Next week is showing a big patter...
by hillybilly
Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:44 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Change pushing through Melbourne. Will take a while to reach the northern part of VIC. Not too sure about rain with progs sprayed for tomorrow.
by hillybilly
Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:02 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Really muggy 21C max here. Still had fog in the trees at noon. Cool change with a bit of rain inbound overnight. Unfortunately a dry front for vic, but then some showers for Wednesday and Thursday. Just enjoy this heat after cold Nov Dec Jan It’s been way warmer than average. OZ just had its third h...
by hillybilly
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:12 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Rainy night here with just over 6mm. Wettest day in nearly two months :? Clearing to a muggy day but mostly fine. Last really hot one for VIC, for a week. Could be another stinker about this time next week for the mainland. Solid front for tomorrow, but unfortunately it missed the tropical moisture ...
by hillybilly
Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March - ?

Remarkable contrast between southern TAS and the rest of southeast Oz today. Min was 20C here and max was 21C with misty haze which eventually became a thick fog down to about 100m. Has been raining all afternoon, though mainly lightly with just over 3mm so far. Most spots have seen 2-6mm so far, th...
by hillybilly
Sun Mar 10, 2024 6:43 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Looks like the 9am temps yesterday means Melbourne missed out on a new March record high minimum. Same for Hobart where the overnight 24C is nearly 3C above the 24 hour minimum record :o Suspected quite a few records will have been approached or broken around both states. This airmass is stinking ho...
by hillybilly
Sat Mar 09, 2024 10:33 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Stinking hot 36C here. Suspect that’s a late season record but can’t be sure. Cooler here for tomorrow with cloud and some rain. It’s parched dry here now. Having to water the trees to keep them from turning up their heals. Fantastic beach weather with quite a bit of humidity and fairly light winds....